12 thoughts on “Democratic Delegate Count”

1. Anthony Uplandpoet Watkins February 3, 2016 at 5:52 pm

   I gather you leave out Hilary’s other 300-400 pledged super delegates because they can switch at any time?
   1. Matt Post authorFebruary 3, 2016 at 10:44 pm

      I’ve left them out, because one, I don’t know how accurate the numbers are, and two, it will make the whole delegate count rather meaningless – which, to be honest, it is. In any case, we will add them as each state holds it’s election. And we reserve the right to change this policy at any time. Feel free to state your case.

      But it’s not because they can switch at any time.
      1. abulsme February 4, 2016 at 5:29 am

         I’d argue for including all the super delegates that you can get info from a reputable source on right away, rather than just as the states hold their contests. Because otherwise you don’t have a good picture of where the delegate race really is. Clinton’s 350+ super delegates really do matter here. If you look at the Clinton/Sanders race without taking those into account, you don’t really have a good sense of where things stand, specifically just how much work Sanders would have to do to catch up. My current best estimates are at http://electiongraphs.com/2016dels/ (scroll down for the state by state breakdowns). My raw data on the Dem side (CSV) is at http://electiongraphs.com/2016dels/DemAllDelsSort.txt including notes fields for the data source for most of the superdelegate counts. Feel free to use any of that data that you wish if it is helpful. (It isn’t original research by me, just compilation of info from other sources, including this DCW post in one of the latest updates. 🙂 )
         1. Matt Post authorFebruary 9, 2016 at 7:02 pm

            Supers have been added in. Using CNN counts, for now. CNN may well be using AP counts also.
   2. angiemax360 March 1, 2016 at 3:46 pm

      Actually, the reason why most responsible news outlets do not include superdelegates is because superdelegates are never pledged votes to begin with. Many people become confused by the use of the words “pledged delegates”, and mistakenly assume that it means they are pledged to vote for that candidate. They are not. They are actually only pledging to support that candidate’s campaign, not to vote for them.

      Furthermore, never in the history of the United States have superdelegates ever voted for anyone in the Democratic national convention who did not get the majority of convention delegate votes. This means it is 100% meaningless how many superdelegates pledge to support a candidate’s campaign, they will still be voting for the other candidate if the other candidate gets the majority of convention delegates.

      Otherwise, they alienate the majority of voters in their party, and guarantee a win for the other party.
2. tmess2 February 3, 2016 at 8:37 pm

   While not good on the party leader delegates, 538 has a good count on endorsements by governors, senators, and representatives.
   1. abulsme February 4, 2016 at 4:49 am

      In addition to the 538 source for Gov, Sen and Rep supers, there is a pretty complete Wikipedia page for Dem super delegates: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Democratic_Party_superdelegates,_2016 I have been using that for my super-delegate tracking so far, plus information from the November AP superdelegate survey when I could find it. (For instance, if AP said X number of super delegates for Clinton in a state, I go with X until the Wikipedia page has more than that, then I start going with the WP page.) I haven’t seen any other place giving 6 supers in Iowa to Clinton yet though. Only the 4 on the wikipedia page. Wish Politico would cite specific supers. Their data source is AP though, so I suspect this is from the November superdelegate survey. I just haven’t found an article giving a numeric total for Iowa like I was able to for many other states.
      1. Anthony Uplandpoet Watkins February 5, 2016 at 6:11 am

         Given the effect of the supers, and given the almost certainty that Hillary will take the lions share of the two super Tuesdays in march, how does Bernie have a chance at the nomination? obviously, the wheels could come off of the Hillarywagen, and people of color could decide Bernie was their man, but i see nothing in any trends to indicate this. Bernie’s amazing fundraising machine is impressive, but even with his great success with small donors and now his actually out raising Hillary for a reporting period, it is important to remember Bernie has a base like Ron/Rand Paul or Ben Carson, where a large percentage of their fans believed strongly enough to send in 50-200 dollars, yet they could not reach into the rest of the voting base of their parties. Money or no money (money certainly helps), I cant see the two factors that killed Hillary 2008: Oprah and running against a black man in the southern primaries. Who is there today who could “Oprah” Bernie? Short of Obama, and he has made it pretty clear that he is not going to go against Hillary, Bill Clinton could help, but obviously he will be campaigning for Hillary. Bloomberg or Warren Buffett could have an impact, butt they are booth more likely to campaign AGAINST Bernie. I do not believe Bernie has a path. I would be interested in the thought process that leads him or his supporters to think he can. I also would love an analytical view of where he will drop out, assuming my projections are correct.
         1. Anthony Uplandpoet Watkins February 5, 2016 at 6:13 am

            butt they are booth more likely should read but they are both more likely (my keyboard loves to double print letters)
         2. angiemax360 March 1, 2016 at 3:52 pm

            The reason why Bernie has a chance is because superdelegates are 100% meaningless as to who the superdelegates will vote for. Pledged superdelegates are not pledged votes (not even symbolically) for any candidate, they’re only pledging to support that candidate in their campaign. Never in the history of the United States of America have superdelegates ever voted for anyone who did not also get the majority of convention delegates. This means that Hillary has to get the majority of delegates in the convention, meaning the majority of delegates in the states’ primaries and caucuses or her superdelegates can’t help her. They are only helpful in the sense that they endorse her. It is a shame that so many people do not understand how superdelegates actually work, and imagine that somehow superdelegates determine who is likely to get the majority of delegates. Only convention delegate numbers tell that story, which is why it makes no sense to include superdelegates in these counts at all.
3. Judy March 27, 2016 at 12:39 pm

   Hi! You appear to have Clinton’s and Sanders’s delegate totals reversed for Washington.
   1. Matt Post authorMarch 27, 2016 at 2:46 pm

      Fixed, and Hawaii added. Thanks for catching this.

Comments are closed.