Under the current national rules, the state Democratic parties are encouraged to use a state-run election when available as the “first binding step” in the delegate selection process. Since 2016, the legislatures in several of the states that had a caucus in 2016 had authorized a primary for 2020. In Colorado and Idaho, the draft delegate selection rules reflect that the party will use the primary instead of the caucus to select delegates. The other caucus states and territories fit into one of several categories: 1) primary authorized but state party has yet to release its delegate selection plan (Minnesota and Nebraska); 2) no primary authorized and delegate selection plan released (Iowa); 3) no primary authorized and no legislation pending but no delegate selection plan released (Nevada); 4) legislation related to primary but no delegate selection plan released; and 5) legislation pending but tentative delegate selection plan released.
Washington fits into this last category. In 2016, Washington had a primary authorized but it was set for May. Wanting earlier input, Washington opted for a March caucus. However, the Washington legislature has passed a bill moving the primary to the second Tuesday in March but allowing the Washington Secretary of State to reschedule the primary to another date in March to be part of a regional cluster. As California is on the list of potential partners, Washington could hold its primary on Super Tuesday. This bill is waiting for the governor’s signature. Given that the current governor is currently running for President, it is highly likely that this bill will become law. Given the requirements of the national rules, the Washington Democratic Party has released two alternative plans. One plan would use the primary to allocate the delegates. Like many states, while delegates are allocated based on the results of the primary, Washington would retain its caucus system for the purpose of selecting the actual delegates. (This plan would get rid of the precinct caucuses and start the process at the legislative district level.)
The other plan would keep the primary as non-binding and use the caucus system to allocate the delegates. Under this plan, Washington would keep the precinct caucuses which would be scheduled for March 21. In keeping with the language in the national rules requiring states to take steps to increase participation in the caucuses, the plan pledges to set up a system to allow absentee voting by those who are unable to attend. However, the current draft does not include any details of this system.
The other significant change in the 2020 draft plan from prior plans ties the allocation of national convention delegates to the results of the precinct conventions. As was the case with the draft plan for Iowa, the draft plan for Washington is based on the percentage of precinct delegates won by each candidate rather than the raw vote total. In Iowa, using precinct delegates is likely to have a major impact as some candidates will miss the threshold at the congressional district level due to being just under the threshold in some precinct. Because by March 21, the field should be much smaller than the field in Iowa, the threshold issue should be less significant. However, there will still be some distortion caused by using precinct delegates. First, using delegates rather than actual votes, gives greater weight to precincts with “low” (relative to expected) turnout at the expense of precincts with “high” turnout (because actual votes per precinct delegate is irrelevant). Second, the conversion of actual votes into delegates involves a degree of rounding. (In a precinct with ten delegates for example, a candidate gets six delegates for having 56% of the votes at the caucus or having 64% of the votes at the caucus.)
At the present time, the Washington State Democratic Party, as part of the comment process, is also soliciting input on whether the party should use the primary or the caucus to allocate delegates. Based on past experiences, if the goal is to maximize participation, the primary is the better option. If Washington opts to retain the caucus, it would stay as the largest state using a caucus system (particularly in Minnesota joins Colorado in using a primary, the next largest caucus states would be Iowa, Nevada, Utah, and Kansas, all of which are less than half the size of Washington). While Washington still has to fill in the details of absentee voting, the draft plan reflects the emphasis in the national rules for encouraging absentee voting and using the initial vote to allocate the delegates.