This week we continue our review of the draft delegate selection plans from the 2016 caucus states with Hawaii.  The focus of this on-going review has been how these states are implementing the new provisions for state parties that do not have the option of or choose not to use a state-run primary.  Under Rule 2.K of the DNC’s Delegate Selection Rules, such state parties must make efforts to increase participation in these party-run processes and (just like states that use a state-run primary) the state must use the vote at the “first-determining step” to allocate its pledged delegates to candidates.  Of course, the simple way to comply with these rules is to follow the suggestion to use a state-run primary which is what this week’s draft plan from Nebraska does (like prior draft plans from Colorado and Idaho and one of the two draft plans from Washington). 

For states that do not have a state-run primary in the Spring of 2020 that they can use, however, the only option is to use a party-run process.  In 2016, Hawaii used a traditional precinct caucus.  The individuals present at those caucuses cast a presidential-preference vote.  The results of that preference vote from the individual precincts were totaled and used to determine the allocation of district-level and state-level (party leader and at-large) delegates.

Since the allocation of delegates in Hawaii already complies with Rule 2.K, the issue for Hawaii was what steps to take to make it easier for Democrats to participate in the caucus process.  For 2020, Hawaii has opted to use a party-run primary (sometimes called a firehouse primary) instead of a traditional caucus.  Under this system, there will be two ways that voters can participate in this primary.  First, a person can vote absentee by mail.  Apparently, all individuals registered as Democrats by February 18 will receive a mail-in ballot by March 3.  If the voter would rather vote absentee, they can mail in that ballot at any time before March 28.  Second, a person can vote in person on April 4 during the eight-hour voting period.  Individuals choosing to use the in-person option apparently will be able to vote at any location even if it is not their “home precinct.”  (For the most part, there should not be much of an issue in making sure that a ballot is counted in the right congressional district.  The only island that is in the First Congressional District is Oahu.  Only a small number of voters from the First Congressional District will be on another island on April 4 and likewise only a small number of voters from the other islands will be on Oahu on April 4.  The issue is most likely to be voters from Oahu casting votes in the part of Oahu that is in the “other” district.)

The ballot will use a limited form of alternative/preferential voting.  Voters will be able to rank a maximum of three candidates.  (Given when the ballot is mailed out, the field might be sufficiently narrowed for this limited ranking to cover most of the remaining candidates.)  If a candidate has withdrawn prior to April 4, votes for that candidate will be redistributed.  Likewise, starting with the lowest ranked candidate still running, votes will be redistributed until all of the remaining candidates are viable (that is have 15% or more support).  (Apparently, there will be separate counts done at the district-level and at the state-level.) 

This draft is tentative and contingent on the state party raising sufficient funds.  This funding issue is why state parties prefer using state-run primaries or caucuses.  A caucus typically requires renting a room for three to four hours and a handful of volunteers to run the count with little need for ballot security.  A party-run primary requires renting a room for nine or ten hours and having enough people present to serve as election judges along with provisions for ballot security.  Additionally, because many states also use a caucus-type system to select delegates, a party-run primary requires the party to bear the expense of both the caucus and the primary.  (Hawaii will hold the precinct meetings to select the delegates to the state convention on March 4.)  On the other hand, a party-run primary makes it easier for voters to participate in the process. 

At this point in time, with the expectation that more draft plans will still be released, the count from the 2016 caucus states is as follows:   two states (Iowa and Nevada) will use traditional caucuses with provisions allowing “absentee” voting; three states (Colorado, Idaho, and Nebraska) will be using state-run primaries; two states (Hawaii and North Dakota) will be using party-run primaries.  That leaves eleven states.  One (Washington) has the option of using a state-run primary but has released alternative plans (state-run primary and caucus) and will make the decision later.  One (Minnesota) has informed the state-election authority that they will be using a state-run primary although the delegate selection plan has not yet been released.  One (Utah) just enacted a presidential primary bill, but it is unknown if the state party will decide to use this primary (especially as the bill does not establish a specific date).  One (Maine) has pending bills to establish a presidential primary.  Of the remaining seven states and territories (Alaska, American Samoa, Guam, Kansas, Northern Marianas, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Wyoming), none of them have a state-run primary that they could use.  As a result, the only issue in these jurisdictions is whether to use a traditional caucus or use a party-run primary.  It will be interesting to see when the draft plans are posted on-line what options these seven states (plus Utah and Maine) choose to take.