After the recent Democratic debates, there was a lot of chatter and whining about Moscow Mitch being the stumbling block to the enactment of any legislation a new Democratic president might want. Cognitive dissonance, kids, they’re missing the point. Moscow Mitch is not assured re-election, nor a Republican Senate. In either of those cases, he becomes a non-issue. So let’s see how we could make that happen.
The current makeup is 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and two independents who caucus with the Democrats. There are 34 seats up for election, of which 22 are held by the Republicans. Therefore we need to win three seats with a Democratic president, and four if the Orange Menace stays in the White House. Below is a map that shows the “consensus view” of the seats that are up (greyed out states have no contest next year barring resignation or death) and you can click at the bottom of the map and make your own predictions.
Click the map to create your own at So here are some thoughts: right now, Beto O’Rourke has an 11 point lead on the giant Cheeto in Texas. He lost to Ted by 2.6 points last year. It’s completely possible that if he gave up the pipe dream of successfully running for president in 2020, he could beat Big John. In Colorado, Cory Gardener’s seat is eminently winnable by John Hickenlooper, and he is not going to make the September debate stage (at last count, he had fewer than 14,000 donors, and polling under 1%). But he could beat Cory. And Mark Kelly (astronaut and husband of Gabby Giffords) has a real shot in the special in Arizona. So, by my math, that’s three. And my fourth is Kentucky. If Amy McGrath can raise $10 million (yeah, you read that right) she can beat Moscow Mitch. It will take a message honed for Kentucky, and an incredible amount of money for a ground game never seen before in the state, but it’s doable. I don’t know how the Maine primary will turn out, but if Sara Gideon takes it, Susan Collins will be able to dedicate more time to making muffins with those blueberries she grows. (And while I hate her politics, I have it on good authority that she makes awesome blueberry muffins and hands them out at constituent events. And yes, sigh, that’s one of those little tidbits you don’t get from the MSM.)
There are a couple of maybes….in Tennessee, with Lamar’s retirement (and it’s about time as he’s 79) there are no top tier candidates from either party declared for next year, so we have no idea how that race might turn out. in both Georgia and North Carolina, there are GOP incumbents, and no seriously declared candidates on the Democratic side. We’ll have a better sense about NC after the special House election later this year, and while she’s said “no”, if Stacey Abrams decides to run in Georgia, that becomes possible.
So here’s MY map, predicated on the information above.
Two final notes: first, this is 2020, and in every state THIS year there are local (and some state and special) elections. PLEASE get involved: we need to build our bench, and we need to vanquish every single Republican in office at each and every level.
Second, a long time reader of this blog (HI DAN!) often chides me for my use of nicknames, and assuming that all the readers know all the background on things I write. If you don’t know something, put it in the comments, and I’ll help you. In my own defense, I cannot name five sports teams, nor do I know pop culture, or any of the regular things that everyone else knows. However, I know all the Senators (plus a ton of Congress men and women, state office holders, etc.) Everyone has a hobby, and this level of politics is mine.
