It appears from news reports that we are moving into stage 2 of the Biden campaign’s search for a vice-presidential nominee — the vetting process.  Broadly speaking, there are three things that influence the pick of a vice-presidential nominee:  1) vetting (anything that disqualifies a candidate); 2) political consideration; and 3) personal compatibility.

When it comes to vetting, everybody has something that could be used against them by the opposition.  Unless you have been living under a rock, every politician has voted for some bill or worked on some project that some people will not like (or at the very least can be twisted into something unpopular).  I have seen state and local races where ads have been run attacking candidates for using dedicated training funds to attend training programs in vacation-type locations.  (Not surprisingly, groups putting on these trainings tend to choose such locations because they are attractive to potential attendees.)  In short, a candidate does not have to have done something wrong for there to be an attack ad as long as the explanation of why there is nothing wrong takes a lot of time.  The real issue with vetting is not is there something out there, but which fights are the campaign willing to have.   We are likely never going to know which candidates are eliminated because of vetting.

Political considerations are, on the other hand, something that can easily be discussed and debated.  Every presidential candidate has strengths and weaknesses — some demographic, some experience, some political, and some geographic.  For example, the last several successful presidential candidates had minimal federal experience.  In each case, the candidate picked a running mate who had a decent amount of federal experience.  Given Vice-President Biden’s extensive federal experience, he can opt for a candidate with experience at the state level or a relatively short period of service at the federal level.

We have already seen one demographic issue play a role in the process — gender.  Thirty-six years ago, when Walter Mondale picked Geraldine Ferraro as his running mate, the choice of a woman for vice-president was somewhat of a stretch.  But today, there are certainly women who are as solid a choice for vice-president as any man.  While not an absolute that there must be a woman on the ticket going forward, male presidential candidates will have to give serious consideration to female vice-presidential candidates.

At least on the Democratic side, serious consideration will also have to be given to persons of color.  People of color represent about one-third of Democratic voters.  Again, the Democratic Party does not necessarily have to have a person of color on the ticket every time, but a white candidate can’t simply ignore qualified potential candidates of a minority race.  And, there is a sufficient number of viable women of color including but not limited to Kamala Harris, Tammy Duckworth, Michelle Lujan Grisham, Val Demings, Stacey Abrams, and Catherine Cortez Masto.

Another factor will almost certainly be age.  If Vice-President Biden has a demographic weakness it is his age.  When he wins, he will be the oldest person elected President.  While Trump might attempt to attack Bdien’s age, Trump is not significantly younger.  In short, Biden almost certainly needs to be looking at candidates in their late 40s or 50s to assure some voters that we will not be looking at an unelected president in three years.

Then there is geographic and political issues.  The geographic should probably play the lesser role.  A good running mate may be worth one or two percent in that candidate’s home state, but there is little evidence of any regional pull.  But political considerations will matter.  Does Biden need a running mate who will be able to reach out to progressive voters who might otherwise stay home or vote for the Green Party candidate?  Or is it more important to double down on moderate voters who are unhappy with President Trump?  And what about the Senate?  Some potential running mates come from states with Republican governors who would replace the Democratic Senator with a Republican or come from swing states with quick special elections that could go either way.  Since the Democrats will need a break or two to get to a 50-50 Senate, do you put a Senate seat at risk that could result in a 51-49 minority?

Even when the vetting and the political considerations narrow the field down to three to five potential candidates, there are still the personal considerations.  It is, of course, possible to keep a vice-president in political Siberia for four years, but most recent presidents have used their vice-president as a senior advisor.  As such, it helps to pick somebody that has a compatible personality.  While its possible to develop a good working relationship with somebody who is good at their job — even if personally annoying — it is much easier when you actually like the person.  Like with the vetting part of the process, this part is entirely behind the scene (even though we may see part of the “tryout” in public or quasi-public given the current limitations on campaigning).

At the end of the day, Joe Biden’s pick will tell us something about how the Biden campaign sees the shape of the race.  It will also tell us something about the shape of the Biden presidency.  We still have about ten weeks to go before we will learn the identity of the pick, but with little else going on in the campaign, the season of speculation has already begun.