Election Night in the U.S. is always different from how things play out in most other countries. The U.S. is one of a handful of countries that have more than two time zones. And, in most of those other countries, all areas within the same time zone close at the same time. Voting hours in these countries are set by federal law. In the U.S., however, voting hours are set by state law. And that creates a weird sequence of poll closing times.
In addition, poll closing times are, in some sense, tentative. While you need to be in line to vote by the time that polls close, anybody in line to vote gets to vote. For states that close in the early evening, long lines at closing time are nor unusual as there is not much of a window to vote after getting home from work resulting in many people attempting to vote after work still being in line when the polls cloase. And there is always the possibility of an emergency order permitting certain precincts to stay open late to compensate for problems earlier in the day. Even after polls close, many jurisdictions use a centralized counting location. That means that there is a lag time between the polls closing and the ballots getting to the counting location. In my county, the closest precincts are still only getting to the county seat about thirty minutes after polls close and the far edges of the county are getting there around an hour after the polls close. As a result, it typically takes ninety minutes for my small (eighteen precinct) county to report all of the results. Large urban counties can take three to four hours to report all of their election night results. This delay in reporting (which is pretty much the same in most states) is one thing that traditionally makes it difficult to project result. If the three largest counties in a state have only reported 10% of the vote while the rest of the state is 80% in, there is still a large number of votes that can change who wins a close race.
The other issue that will impact this election is the number of mail-in votes. As we have previously discussed, every state has different rules for counting mail-in votes. In most states, early in-person votes will be released around the same time (if not before) the election day votes, but mail-in votes will be reportedly differently in different states. As such, with each state, the big questions will be: 1) is the reported vote just the early vote or also the election day vote; 2) if we have full early vote and partial election day vote, how much does the election day vote differ from the early vote; and 3) how much of the mail-in vote has been counted and how much may remain to be counted or still be “in the mail”? The early count from a state may appear to be lopsided, but — without knowing the answers to these questions — it will be more difficult to determine if we have enough of the vote counted to know who is going to win. In states that are used to large mail-in vote totals, it is not unusual to not know the winner of the closest race for a day or two after the election as we finally get enough mail-in votes counted.
Because of this staggering, the first two hours will only include partial results from the early states. The key thing to look for, however, is which states are being projected based on early results and which ones are neck and neck. In 2016, even though Virginia had been trending blue and ultimately went for Clinton, the closeness of the race in Virginia was an early warning sign that the race was not going to go well nationally.
The first poll closing will take place in the eastern parts of Kentucky and Indiana at 6:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. In Indiana, almost all of the state is in the Eastern time zone except the area around Gary and Evansville. In Kentucky, the line is closer to half-way through the state, but the biggest population centers are mostly in the Eastern time zone. The networks generally obey the convention that they will not call the state-wide results until all of the precincts are closed. However, if either of these states are close, that will be a good omen for the rest of the night. There are three specific races to look at from these two states — all in the Eastern time zone. The biggest one is obviously the Kentucky Senate race. Obviously, we would all love to see Mitch McConnell retired. But this race is going to be an uphill race. For the reasons noted above (the delay in counting urban votes and the inability to process mail-in ballots before election day), the first votes to be reported are likely to favor Senator McConnell.
The other two races to watch are two congressional districts — one in Indiana and one in Kentucky. The Indiana race is in the Fifth District. This is an open seat currently held by the Republicans that includes the suburbs of Indianapolis. When drawn in 2010, this seat looked like a pretty safe seat for Republicans. The fact that some see it as a swing seat in 2020 shows how far the Republican Party has fallen with its traditional base in the suburbs. If the early returns show a close race in this seat, that will be a good sign that the Democrats may increase their majority in the House and would also signal the type of swing in the suburbs that will make it difficult for Trump to hold onto Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. The Kentucky race is the Sixth District which folks may remember as the seat that Amy McGrath ran for in 2018. Because this district includes the University of Kentucky and the state capitol, there is some hope for this race, but — like the Fifth District in Indiana — this district was drawn to favor the Republicans. As with the Senate race, the delay in counting mail-in votes and votes from the two main urban areas are likely to cause the early results to favor the Republicans and it may be several hours (or maybe even into Wednesday) before there is a clear picture.
Because, except for a handful of House seats, no projection will be made in either state until polls close in western parts of these states, the broadcast networks do not start their coverage until 7 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. At that point, the remainder of the polls close in Kentucky and Indiana. I would not be shocked if both states are called for President Trump by 7:01 p.m. If either state is too close to call, that would be a very good sign.
At 7 p.m., the polls will also close in Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia, and most of Florida (all but the panhandle). The early vote totals in these states will be crucial. Georgia and Florida should have a very large percent of the vote coming from the early vote. How quickly the counties release the early vote totals and whether they show good results for the Democrats will be a key indicator of whether we Democrats have a good chance of winning the state. A key question will be how these states are characterized as the hour progresses. Given the unique circumstances of this election, I would not be surprised if the networks are cautious in making projections. So, for at least part of the hour, the networks will probably characterize these states as “too early” to project (i.e. not enough votes in). The question will be which states convert to “too close” to project. If Georgia is too close to call and Virginia is simply too early to call, that would be a good sign. If Virginia is, once again, too close to call, that could be a worrisome sign.
There are four Senate races in this group. Due to the number of candidates, I am dubious that we will get a winner in the Georgia special election. As such, the things to look for in that race is whether Reverend Warnock is safely in first place and whom is leading between Senator Loeffler and Representative Collins in the battle for the other spot in the runoff. In the regular Senate election, a key question is going to be how strong the Libertarian candidate is performing. If the Libertarian candidate is getting 2% or more, there is a very real potential of a runoff and we could be looking at a long night. The South Carolina race is probably going to take an hour or so to develop unless undecided voters break sharply in favor of one candidate. Finally, Virginia should be an early call for Senator Kaine.
Besides the Senate races, there are multiple house races to look at. In Florida, the Republicans currently have a narrow 14-13 lead. There are six seats that are viewed as being up for grabs — four that the Democrats currently hold (Seventh, Thirteenth, Twenty-Sixth, and Twenty-Seventh) and two that the Republicans currently hold (Fifteenth and Sixteenth). Barring a big swing back to the Republicans, the Democrats should comfortably hold their four. The two Republican seats are in the suburbs of Tampa Bay-St. Petersburg. One — the Fifteenth — is technically an open seat due to the ethically-challenged incumbent losing in the primary. These will not be easy seats to pickup. If the early numbers are showing that the Democrats are comfortably holding their seats and that the two Republican seats are very close that would represent a favorable swing in the suburbs that would be a good sign for winning Florida (and possibly Georgia and North Carolina).
In Georgia, the two seats to watch are both in the Atlanta suburbs. In the Sixth, the Democrats are defending a narrow pickup from 2018. In the Seventh, the Republicans are defending an open seat that the Democrats almost picked up in 2018. Again, these two seats will be a good indicator of whether the Democrats are making gains in the suburbs.
South Carolina is one of the few states in which the Democrats are entirely on the defensive in the battle for the House. In 2018, the Democrats narrowly one the First District after the Republicans had a bitter struggle in the primary. Again, this district will be a leading indicator of how Democrats are doing in the suburbs. If the Democrats can hold this district, it should be a very good night for Democrats.
In Virginia, there are three seats to look at. The Second and Seventh were Democratic pickups in 2018. Both are partially suburban districts. If we can hold both, again that will be a good sign of Democratic strength in the suburbs. The potential pickup is the Fifth. I do not think that the Fifth will be a good indicator of the national trends. It is an open seat because the Republicans — using the convention option — kicked out a very conservative incumbent for being too liberal. As such, there is a chance that we could pick up the seat from ticket splitting moderate and conservative Republicans who think that the Republican candidate is too extreme.
Finally, there is Vermont. The only race of interest there is the race for Governor. The incumbent Republican would probably be a Democrat in any other state. He is favored to win re-election, but the other races in the state will almost certainly go to the Democrats.
Finally, at 7:30 p.m., the polls will close in North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia. While Ohio is a bigger state, North Carolina is the big prize from this batch.
In North Carolina, we are looking at potentially close races for President, Governor, and Senator. It may take several hours before any of these races are clear. The good news in North Carolina is that the results should include most of the early votes and pre-election day absentee ballots. The bad news is that some absentee ballots may arrive after election day. If North Carolina is still too close to call by midnight, it may be several days before we know who wins. There are two house seats that could potentially switch in North Carolina (the Eighth and the Ninth), both are long shots but the Ninth was a close contest in 2018 that the Republicans only won through actual proven voter fraud. Again, close races in these two partially suburban seats would show Republican weakness in the suburbs which could swing several toss-up states in favor of Joe Biden.
In Ohio, there are two potentially close races for Congress in the First District and the Twelfth District, both are suburban, lean Republican districts (one in the Cincinnati area and one in the Columbus area). As in North Carolina, the number of outstanding absentee ballots might delay final results. But both district will be leading indicators for what we might see from suburban districts in the rest of the country.
For both North Carolina and Ohio, we are only likely to have early votes by the time that 8 p.m. rolls around (and maybe only partial early votes). But we should be starting to have good indications out of the 7 p.m. states and, if things are going well, Virginia will have been called for Joe Biden. It is likely that Georgia, however, will still be either too early or too close to call. And (even if it were a blowout which is highly unlikely), Florida will not be called until after 8 p.m. due to voting in the panhandle only ending at 8 p.m.
In short, the first two hours on election night are a little like the pre-game show for a major sporting event. There may be some races called, but those are most likely to be the races that nobody thought were going to be close. In the big states that are likely to be closely contested, other than, maybe, the Kentucky Senate race and the two contested house district in Kentucky and Indiana, we will have maybe 10-15% of the vote (or maybe even less) in for the remaining contests — enough to give hints about the evening but nothing definitive. It will only be after 8 p.m. that the picture will start coming into sharp focus.
