We are now moving into the universe where aside from spinning fictional conspiracy theory, Donald Trump is, for all practical purposes, down to recounts to keep his slim hopes of avoiding an orange jump suit alive.
As with everything else about this election that we have talked about over the past three weeks, the basic rules for recounts are set by state law. So looking at the states in which Trump is most likely to ask for a recount, here are the rules.
Arizona — In Arizona, the margin must be less than 0.1%. Any such recount is automatic, and a candidate is not able to request a recount. Assuming a final vote total of slightly under 4 million votes, the margin would have to slip under 4,000 to have a recount. Apparently, in Arizona, the recount is done by rerunning the ballots through counting machines.
Georgia — In Georgia, there is no automatic recount. However, if the margin is less than 0.5%, a candidate has the right to request a recount. (Voters can request a recount or election officials can order a recount on their own motion but such recounts are discretionary.) Based on an approximately 5 million ballots, the margin would have to exceed 25,000 to defeat a campaign’s request for a recount. If a recount is done, it simply consists of re-running the ballots through the machines.
Nevada — Nevada does not have any particular margin that triggers a recount. Any candidate can request a recount regardless of the final margin. In Nevada, there is hand inspection of the ballots to determine if there is a valid vote. The actual count, however, is done by machine.
North Carolina — In North Carolina, a candidate can request a recount if the margin is less than 10,000 votes. As best as I can determine, the recount in North Carolina is simply a machine recount.
Pennsylvania — In Pennsylvania, there is an automatic recount if the margin is less than 0.5%. Based on 7 million votes, the final margin would have to be under 35,000. As in Nevada, it looks like a mix of hand and machine count. If a ballot is kicked out as having an overvote (two candidates marked) or undervote (no candidate marked), the ballot is manually examined to see if voter intent can be determined.
Wisconsin — In Wisconsin, a candidate can request a recount if the margin is less than 1%, but has to put down a deposit if the margin is in excess of 0.25%. Like in Pennsylvania, it looks like it is primarily a machine recount with hand examination if the machine kicks it out. With about 3.5 million votes cast, the current margin of 20,000 (which should be close to the final margin) is below the threshold for a candidate to request a recount but is over the margin for a free recount.
Now, just because a candidate can request a recount does not mean that one is likely to succeed. While it is possible that the original machine count is wrong, there are other mechanisms designed to catch a machine malfunction before the results are certified. The machine part of the recount is unlikely to make a big difference. Where things can change is the hand part of the recount. Even there, as we learned from Minnesota in 2008, there will be some votes gained by both candidates. People on both sides are equally likely to try to manually correct a ballot instead of contact the election judge to spoil the ballot and request a clean new ballot. As long as the pre-recount margin is over 2,000 or 0.1% of the vote, I would not expect the recount to change the winner but it probably will impact the margin. (in Minnesota, in 2008, the total net change was less than 1,000 votes.)
The bottom line is that, unless things dramatically change, any request for recount will mostly be sound and fury signifying nothing.
