Monday, March 03, 2008
Ohio, Texas, Vermont and Rhode Island Primary Tracker
WE’VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com
Texas will hold it’s primary/caucus today along with primaries in Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island.
CNN has a delegate counter that lets you figure out how each candidate can get enough delegates to win the nomination.
Note: Texas-Primary results according to the Office of the Secretary of State of Texas are:
Clinton = 65 Pledged Delegates and Obama 61 Pledged Delegates.
Will subtract those numbers from news sources’ numbers for Texas to get Texas-Caucus Pledged Delegates.
| State | Delegates Left |
% Vote In | % Clinton | %Obama | Delegates Clinton | Delegates Obama |
| Vermont | 0 | 99% | 39% | 59% | 6 | 9 |
| Ohio | 2 | 100% | 54% | 44% | 74 | 65 |
| Rhode Island | 0 | 100% | 58% | 40% | 13 | 8 |
| Texas-Primary | 0 | 99% | 51% | 48% | 65 | 61 |
| Texas-Caucus | 10 | 40% | 44% | 56% | 27 | 30 |
| Tuesday Total | 12 | 185 | 173 | |||
| Previously Pledged Delegates (AP) | 1035 | 1187 | ||||
| Total Pledged Delegates | 1220 | 1360 | ||||
| Superdelegate Endorsements | 240 | 198 | ||||
| Total Delegates |
1460 | 1558 | ||||
| Delegates Still Needed to Win Nomination | 564 | 466 |
Source for Vote Percentage is CNN. Source for Delegates is CBS and AP. Source for Superdelegates is DCW
Update 7:00 PM Wednesday Eastern Time.
Best sources have been CNN , CBS and AP.
This page will not be updated further. For the latest updated delegate counts for all the states, check the Ultimate Delegate Tracker for complete state-by-state results.
Obama wins Vermont, Clinton wins Rhode Island, Ohio, and the Texas primary.
Policy for this post is to use the highest delegate numbers available from any source. Eventually they will all come together. In our Ultimate Delegate Tracker, we use AP numbers on an ongoing basis.
Next up is Wyoming on March 8th.
Posted by Oreo at 9:32 AM 
Today’s the 4th – are you guys going to update your delegate tracker on the left bar?
Cheers and thanks!
We only change the date when we make an update. There haven’t been any endorsements in the past few days
I just updated the date as Obama just picked up a new superdelegate.
You could be a very busy man pretty soon, Matt.
Tom Brokaw says that Obama has 50 new superdelgates ready to endorse him…
http://thepage.time.com/2008/03/04/tom-brokaw-says-obama-has-50-more-superdelegates-in-his-back-pocket/
The CNN delegate tool is pretty cool. Using some pretty conservative projections for the remaining pledged delegates, Obama can get to 2046 if he gets 1/2 of the remaining superdelegates.
Yes, I made some pretty conservative projections with the CNN delegate counter and concluded that this thing is already over, unless HC does unbelievably well in the next few hours.
How will Texas report? Will primary results be separated from caucus results?
Something’s wrong. Rhode Island has 219 delegates left?
Yeah, and between the two of them Obama and Clinton have 105% of the vote in Texas.
Having some technical difficuties, hopefully fixed now.
How is Obama winning in Ohio with delegates, but Clinton is winning by %?
Kevin, I believe if Barack wins areas with a larger population, he receives more delegates even if Hillary gets a larger percent of the vote. It’s all how the delegates are divided up across counties/precincts/whatever they’re called.
update texas:
http://enr.sos.state.tx.us/enr/mar04_136_state.htm
Tex SoS now has it 63-63…. I think those are just absed on current totals and arent final numbers.
These results are eerily similar to the Obama campaign spreadsheet leaked to Bloomberg a month ago. That spread sheet seems to underestimate Obama’s delegate performance in tonight’s contests, but it’s within a percentage point or two in all four states.
just looked at your superdelegate list — what’s interesting, and perhaps someone has noted this before, is that hillary’s superdelegate lead comes entirely from DNC members. These are the most shadowy of superdelegates and make up the vast majority of the superdelegates who were never elected. So the argument that the superdelegates are in anyway accountable to the public, and therefore their votes are not an abomination, wouldn’t really justify a Clinton victory, should it continue to be delivered not by the elected superdelegates, but by the shadow-figure delegates.
I have not contributed to this forum in a very long time. What I see is the same old same old.
Crass Obama Supporters. I once thought this Forum was bipartisan however it has become very clear that it is dominated by the regular vulgar obama rent a crowd you seem to see all over the online forums.
I just wanted to see the delegate count so I returned tonight and what do I see, the same old same old, bad mannered conduct.
I have made my decision, and I will stick with it.
Amazing how quickly the votes went up for Mr Obama Gentleman.
I notice that the team on the Forum is an all MALE TEAM as the Moderators. Shame on you for not including women in your team of Moderators.
Nana Karry
nanakarry…
That has to be one of the most pathetic posts I’ve ever seen.
Of all the things I find wrong with the Clinton campaign, the simple denial of basic arithmetic is the worst, with the constant whining being a close second.
There aren’t enough women here? Come on…what a crock.
Everytime a man make a negative comment about HRC, its because she’s a woman. That is patethic. You want to be treated fairly…you want to be in politics…well then toughen up and stop looking for poor excuses.
In short- Grow up!
Nana – after the final update of the night, you posted the above comment claiming bias in favor of Obama. The night’s count at that time was 108-74 Clinton.
When all of the delegates are allocated in tonight’s contest, the Clinton lead will clearly be less than that, so I do not understand your logic.
Besides, the people running this site don’t project delegates – they just report what the media is projecting.
At least all of the “moderators” have an IQ over 100, which is more than I can say for some of the visitors.
Really Gentleman what ever you have to say has little value to me.
I only came back to see the delegate count.
However what ever you do say and what I do notice is that their are no female moderators on this forum.
The obama supporters have denied MI and FL and now the time is coming when you will have to count their votes or at least re-count the votes in these states.
I think last night was a wonderful night and finally Americia is beginning to open their eyes. Last night was a victory for the rest of the states who still have to vote to cast their vote for change that they can be safe and secure in.
Your rants don’t frighten me or even put me off. BTW I grew up a very long time ago. Maybe oxfdblue you have a litte growing up yourself to do.
Dax IQ? Intelligence quotient? well the IQ tonight was in favor of a reality check and that is what MR O got tonight a reality check across a large cross section of 4 states.
Sticks and stone may hurt me, but if you allow names to hurt you or childish insults to hurt you, well, I am sorry for you. If you do not like something say it or keep your IQ to yourself.
As I said I only visited to see what the delegate count was on this forum. I notice all of the old clinton people have moved on to other places. How sad it is not to see them here tonight celebrating the reality check.
It looks as though the pledged delegate lead is around 140 (2:43 EST).
I think I have to go with Gloria Borger–“The superdelegates will freeze up”–instead of Tom Brokaw. Hillary’s superdelegate lead will drift back up to 65-70 in the next week or two. That’s about all that will happen.
Texas Primary so far…
Texas Secretary of State
http://enr.sos.state.tx.us/enr/mar04_136_race0.htm?x=0&y=151&id=156
With 7155 of 8247 precincts, shows
Clinton 64 delegates, Obama 62.
Very small difference.
Texas Caucus Analysis
Source: Texas Democratic Party
http://precinctconventionresults.txdemocrats.org/election08district
With anywhere from 20-55% of precincts reporting in each district, my calculations below
District 1: 2665 delegates. Obama: 58%. Clinton: 40%. Total dels: Obama: 1577. Clinton: 1088
District 2: 2781 delegates. Obama: 64%. Clinton: 35%. Total dels: Obama: 1798. Clinton: 983
District 3: 2650 delegates. Obama: 55%. Clinton: 44%. Total dels: Obama: 1472. Clinton: 1178
District 4: 2466 delegates. Obama: 56%. Clinton: 43%. Total dels: Obama: 1395. Clinton: 1071
District 5: 3098 delegates. Obama: 59%. Clinton: 40%. Total dels: Obama: 1846. Clinton: 1252
District 6: 1778 delegates. Obama: 48%. Clinton: 51%. Total dels: Obama: 862. Clinton: 916
District 7: 2196 delegates. Obama: 61%. Clinton: 38%. Total dels: Obama: 1353. Clinton: 843
District 8: 3020 delegates. Obama: 63%. Clinton: 36%. Total dels: Obama: 1922. Clinton: 1098
District 9: 2216 delegates. Obama: 68%. Clinton: 31%. Total dels: Obama: 1522. Clinton: 694
District 10: 3804 delegates. Obama: 62%. Clinton: 37%. Total dels: Obama: 2382. Clinton: 1422
District 11: 2650 delegates. Obama: 55%. Clinton: 44%. Total dels: Obama: 1472. Clinton: 1178
District 12: 2875 delegates. Obama: 54%. Clinton: 45%. Total dels: Obama: 1568. Clinton: 1307
District 13: 4624 delegates. Obama: 80%. Clinton: 19%. Total dels: Obama: 3737. Clinton: 887
District 14: 5466 delegates. Obama: 67%. Clinton: 32%. Total dels: Obama: 3699. Clinton: 1767
District 15: 2735 delegates. Obama: 64%. Clinton: 35%. Total dels: Obama: 1768. Clinton: 967
District 16: 3066 delegates. Obama: 59%. Clinton: 40%. Total dels: Obama: 1827. Clinton: 1239
District 17: 3033 delegates. Obama: 61%. Clinton: 38%. Total dels: Obama: 1869. Clinton: 1164
District 18: 3078 delegates. Obama: 56%. Clinton: 43%. Total dels: Obama: 1741. Clinton: 1337
District 19: 2733 delegates. Obama: 31%. Clinton: 68%. Total dels: Obama: 856. Clinton: 1877
District 20: 2438 delegates. Obama: 21%. Clinton: 77%. Total dels: Obama: 522. Clinton: 1916
District 21: 2722 delegates. Obama: 21%. Clinton: 78%. Total dels: Obama: 577. Clinton: 2145
District 22: 2631 delegates. Obama: 48%. Clinton: 51%. Total dels: Obama: 1276. Clinton: 1355
District 23: 4487 delegates. Obama: 79%. Clinton: 20%. Total dels: Obama: 3581. Clinton: 906
District 24: 2175 delegates. Obama: 51%. Clinton: 47%. Total dels: Obama: 1132. Clinton: 1043
District 25: 4190 delegates. Obama: 57%. Clinton: 42%. Total dels: Obama: 2412. Clinton: 1778
District 26: 2533 delegates. Obama: 35%. Clinton: 64%. Total dels: Obama: 896. Clinton: 1637
District 27: 1748 delegates. Obama: 18%. Clinton: 81%. Total dels: Obama: 318. Clinton: 1430
District 28: 2152 delegates. Obama: 37%. Clinton: 61%. Total dels: Obama: 812. Clinton: 1340
District 29: 2111 delegates. Obama: 24%. Clinton: 75%. Total dels: Obama: 512. Clinton: 1599
District 30: 2426 delegates. Obama: 39%. Clinton: 59%. Total dels: Obama: 965. Clinton: 1461
District 31: 1323 delegates. Obama: 39%. Clinton: 59%. Total dels: Obama: 527. Clinton: 797
Total: 87870 precinct delegates. Obama: 48197. Clinton :39673
My estimated statewide caucus delegates based on total precinct delegates. Obama: 37. Clinton :30
Combine that with a 2-delegate edge for Clinton in the primary in my previous post, means, Obama wins Texas by 5 delegates. Not what you’ll hear in the media….
Nana Karry,
How blessed we have been that you have NOT made, what you wrongly term, “contributions” to this forum. You have shown yourself to be the ill-mannered vulgarian who has demonstrated a lack of rectitude and falsely accused the hard workers here of many things, none of which is true.
You may take issue with some of the people who post your level of ad hominem vitriol here and I would agree you and they are similarly lacking. However, to take an obviously false shot at the moderators (I am hard pressed to believe that Quon_mom is a male) shows me your sexist bias. You are the shame visited on women everywhere and proof of abject abandonment of an illustrious matriarchal role to which rude youths should look for guidance.
Karry!
I’ve missed you!
We’re still in it…I’ve been volunteering with my little one.
-c
That CNN delegate thing doesn’t work.
Click even on everything, you get somewhere around:
Clinton 2042 Obama 2118, Needed for nomination 2025. So they both win the nomination! Yeah!
—
I’d figure the super delegates could see the writing on the wall and put the race out of it’s misery. I don’t want four more weeks of bloodshed. Anybody? My guess is the Obama camp probably asked if they would endorse him of Clinton didn’t make good enough gains to make winning possible.
Texas SoS now has the primary at 65-61 for Clinton.
Right now I’ve got Ohio at 75-66 for Clinton, but several districts (05, 18, and especially 01 and 17) are close to “tipping points”, and some districts could have lots of provisional ballots to count. Clinton should net 7-15 delegates in Ohio.
The Texas Caucus numbers could be interesting. 30-37 (Obama’s lead) is the number I’ve seen the most, but that was with less than 40% of precincts reporting, so it could swing by quite a bit.
Clinton should get her first “positive pledged delegate night” of the campaign thus far, picking up 5-25. I put the over/under at +11 for Clinton.
Obama’s spreadsheet “leaked” at:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0208/Obamas_projections.html
seems to have called tonight with impressive accuracy (delegate wise at least, I’ve taken to ignoring percentages).
–SpaceSquirrel
Bottom line is Obama needs 47% of the remaining 949 pledged and superdelegates for the nomination…and the longer this goes the more likely McCain wins the general
Ohio Analysis: Clinton 75 delegates. Obama 66 delegates
Source: http://vote.sos.state.oh.us/pls/enr/f?p=152:10:0
99.99% reporting
District 1 : 4 delegates. Obama 61.84% Clinton 37.39%. Delegates: Obama: 2, Clinton: 2
District 2 : 4 delegates. Obama 44.76% Clinton 53.78%. Delegates: Obama: 2, Clinton: 2
District 3 : 5 delegates. Obama 52.18% Clinton 46.54%. Delegates: Obama: 3, Clinton: 2
District 4 : 4 delegates. Obama 39.46% Clinton 57.94%. Delegates: Obama: 2, Clinton: 2
District 5 : 4 delegates. Obama 38.71% Clinton 59%. Delegates: Obama: 2, Clinton: 2
District 6 : 5 delegates. Obama 26.66% Clinton 69.96%. Delegates: Obama: 1, Clinton: 4
District 7 : 4 delegates. Obama 40.64% Clinton 57.54%. Delegates: Obama: 2, Clinton: 2
District 8 : 4 delegates. Obama 41.88% Clinton 56.35%. Delegates: Obama: 2, Clinton: 2
District 9 : 6 delegates. Obama 44.76% Clinton 53.94%. Delegates: Obama: 3, Clinton: 3
District 10 : 6 delegates. Obama 36.91% Clinton 61.48%. Delegates: Obama: 2, Clinton: 4
District 11 : 8 delegates. Obama 69.54% Clinton 29.95%. Delegates: Obama: 6, Clinton: 2
District 12 : 5 delegates. Obama 57.33% Clinton 41.78%. Delegates: Obama: 3, Clinton: 2
District 13 : 6 delegates. Obama 42.64% Clinton 55.84%. Delegates: Obama: 3, Clinton: 3
District 14 : 6 delegates. Obama 38.96% Clinton 59.56%. Delegates: Obama: 2, Clinton: 4
District 15 : 4 delegates. Obama 49.23% Clinton 49.71%. Delegates: Obama: 2, Clinton: 2
District 16 : 5 delegates. Obama 38.68% Clinton 59.07%. Delegates: Obama: 2, Clinton: 3
District 17 : 7 delegates. Obama 35.01% Clinton 62.87%. Delegates: Obama: 3, Clinton: 4
District 18 : 5 delegates. Obama 30.61% Clinton 66.22%. Delegates: Obama: 2, Clinton: 3
District Total : 92 delegates. Obama: 44, Clinton: 48
At Large : 31 delegates. Obama 44.05% Clinton 54.24%. Delegates: Obama: 14, Clinton: 17
PLEO : 18 delegates. Obama 44.05% Clinton 54.24%. Delegates: Obama: 8, Clinton: 10
Total Pledged : 123 delegates. Delegates: Obama: 66, Clinton: 75
Ohio: Closeness to tipping points:
The only districts within 2% of a tipping point are:
01: Obama 0.18% below 62.5%, which would make it 3-1 Obama if it tips. (potential Obama gain: 2)
13: Clinton 1.63% below 58.33%, which would make it 4-2 Clinton if it tips. (potential Clinton gain: 2)
18: Clinton 1.61% below 70%, which would make it 4-1 Clinton if it tips. (potential Clinton gain: 2)
Statewide at-large: Obama 0.34% below 45.16%, which would make it 16-15 Clinton if it tips. Potential Obama gain: 2)
PLEO is 2.40% away from 47.22%, the nearest tipping point, so it will stay at 10-8 Clinton.
So, depending on scenarios, Obama or Clinton could each pick up a total of 4.
Note: these totals are using the Ohio Secretary of State’s 99.99% reporting totals, and dividing each candidates share of the 2-candidate total (i.e. ignoring Edwards’s votes).
My cutoff threshhold of 2% assumes that any provisional voting or challenges wouldn’t change the outcome of any district by > 2%, which seems reasonable.
CD 5 & 14 are both 2.12% away from a tipping point (one in favor of each candidate), if you care to include those.
So, most likely nothing will change much, but if they do, Obama is nearest the 2 tightest tipping points.
Ohio: forgot a tipping point:
In 11, Clinton is 1.14% below 31.25%, which would make it 5-3 Obama (currently 6-2) and gain Clinton 2 delegates.
If Obama has 52% percent of the Texas caucus, how can he be 14-8 down on delgates?
The numbers posted here are not up to date. From what I’ve read, the TX primary is 65-61, Clinton, and the TX caucus results are 30-27, Obama, with 10 caucus results to be announced.
The total for Texas is now 95-94, Clinton, with 10 delegates to be allocated based on caucus results.
where do you see 30-27 for Obama in the Texas Caucus? I have yet to find any reliable source. I have seen estimates of 37-30 for Obama but that is it
Hi DNC123.
There’s no official source for that. If you look above, you’ll see Andy’s district-by-district that extrapolates the early returns to 100% reporting on a by-district basis. Based on that, he’s estimating a total delegate count of ~48k to ~39k for Obama. The Texas Dems have an up-to-the-minute reporting site with 39,392 delegates determined as of right now. You need an automated spreadsheet (or lots of elbow grease) to extrapolate the data, but that’s the approach. BTW, I’ve done one as well and it corroborates Andy’s conclusions 100%.
The big assumption here: that the final results for each of the 31 districts will reflect the district’s early returns (with about 40% reporting). That’s an assumption, so the 37-30 should not be put in the bank.
Regards,
Scantron –
AP is reporting there are only 10 dels left in Texas caucus to award, and the total in Texas is only Plus One for Hillary:
Clinton’s victory in Ohio won her only nine more delegates than Obama, with two delegates still to be awarded. In Texas, Clinton won four more delegates than Obama in the primary. But Obama trimmed Clinton’s lead to a single Texas delegate in the party caucuses. There were still 10 delegates to be awarded in the caucuses.
http://www.startribune.com/nation/16256381.html
Thanks, Dan.
That article sounds right to me. Thanks for the link. Here’s my take at the moment.
The trees fall like so:
RI +5 HRC
VT +3 BHO
OH +11 HRC*
TXp +2 HRC per DCW, +4 per TXSoS
TXc +7 BHO (est by Andy)
The forest:
+8 to +10 pickup for HRC, with one or two possible delegate breaks in OH or TXc. (net 2 either way)
So – a win for Clinton, but more important from a momentum perspective than in the delegate count. …trying my hand as a pundit, there…
BTW – The Obama/Clinton split in TXc is 55.84/44.16 at this moment, after eliminating chaff, with 45.8% of district delegates determined. At 55.95/44.05 the break goes 38-29. The Clinton districts have been a bit slower to report. …ah, the needles on the trees.
Cheers,
This would be an even better summary if you all were to add two additional rows – total pledged delegates yet to be won in unpcoming elections and total remaining unpledged superdelegates. Please consider adding???
another thing that we need to point out in these totals overall is that there are still 9 delegates that will be awarded in Colorado that Obama won handily. I would assume at least 6 of the 9 will go to Obama. Not that this a major adjustment, but I would presume another +3 would head his way. Are there are other states where delegates have yet to be decided?
To dnc123 — I used an AP story for my counts. I couldn’t find the source data, but the AP story was pretty widespread. The NPR story link is here, and the 30-27 caucus “score” was part of the story.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=17838435
What is holding up the declaration for the last 2 Ohio delegates and the 10 Texas delegates?
Every media source is incomplete in a couple or more states. I think CO is the only state (before Mar 4) for which no one has a full allocation.
The Obama margin of 10 there already fully reflects a proportional allocation. I do not know the details of their process, but I see no reason to assume that he will get over half of the unallocated.
Texas Caucus:
What holds up Texas is that it is all an estimate. The only thing that was determined last night is how many of 80,000 delegates for each candidate go to each of the 31 district conventions. Then June 5-7 is the state convention, which will eventually determine the share of 67 Texas caucus delegates.
BUT, you can estimate already that Obama is looking to win about 56-44% of the 80,000, so he will likely end up with somewhere around a 37-30 caucus delegate lead. Probably +-1 or 2, depending on how exact rounding happens in each district. But this 30-27 number is a lowball estimate, that very likely underestimates Obama’s final edge in the caucus.
I can’t speak for Ohio, but I think there may be some district which is very close to the tipping point which gives one candidate or the other a 2-delegate difference. If there are provisional ballots to count, the outcome of those 2 may still be in doubt.
If you want to read about district delegate math for primaries, go here:
http://www.burntorangereport.com/showComment.do?commentId=31057
That explains Texas’s formula. I think Ohio’s is the same. Basically, you take the candidate’s percentage of the 2-candidate total, multiply by the number of delegates for a district, and round to the nearest whole number. Thus, with a 4-delegate district, you get a 2-2 split unless one candidate gets more that 62.5%, in which case it goes 3-1. The totals for a 4-0 split are nearly unachievable. A single vote can change the margin between a 2-2 split and a 3-1 split, which probably accounts for the 2 undecided delegates in Ohio.
Andy, much appreciated.
Us poor foreigners are on a steep learning curve with the system.
Brilliant site this!
“Caucus results could take weeks”
Be prepared for a bit of a wait wrapping up TX delegate counts. I clipped in a link below, but he jist is that there’s no requirement to phone in local caucus results until the county conventions at the end of the month. The 40% or so reported is “voluntary” as a courtesy by those chairs.
That’s why reporting jumped to 38% and then trickled in today. It’ll flat out stop in the next day or two and the TX Dems will stop updating their site altogether.
24-hour media cycle meet old-style politics. We’re on their schedule here…
http://www.statesman.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/austin/politics/entries/2008/03/05/caucus_results_could_take_week.html
I think we should face the fact that FL and MI will need to (and will agree to) re-vote to have their delegates seated.
IF that is the case and HRC wins both FL and MI 60/40, wins Penn and PR 60/40 but loses to BO in all the other states 48/52 then there would be a tie on pledged delegates – according to my spreadsheet!
Note that remains a big IF …
Before thinking about the FL/MI results, let’s talk about the PA primary.
A Clinton victory in PA is (IMO) likely. A 20 point Clinton victory is not. Should her campaign win PA by 20 or more points, she would (rightly) be able to claim a sea-change in the desire of the electorate, and that would help her claim to be the “choice of the people” (and put MI and FL back in play).
Given that she won OH by about 9 delegates, and that she (probably) lost TX (won 4 delegates in the primary, but lost an estimated 6-7 delegates in the caucus), she’s not likely to be able to pull off a win in PA that’s will substantially cut into Obama’s lead. After “big” wins on Tuesday, Clinton’s been able to knock off about 8-10 delegates from Obama’s lead. When you consider that Obama gained 8 delegates in Hawaii alone two weeks ago, that’s a bad sign for Clinton’s campaign.
It’s too bad. I’m rooting for her, but I don’t see the numbers there. It’s the numbers that will decide this election. Obama’s ability to nail down caucuses (where organization matters) has been extraordinary this year. That’s been the difference.