Wednesday, June 11, 2008
General Election Tracker – June 11
WE’VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com
This is the DemConWatch General Election Tracker, a summary of the best election projections on the web.
We will be introducing House and Senate trackers later this month.
Update 6/11: Updated OpenLeft, Frontloading and Electoral-Vote.com
Obama Average: 275.2 (was 277.8), due in large part to 3 projections moving South Carolina from Tossup to McCain-Lean, which was due to a new Rasmussen Poll showing McCain with a 48-39 lead. As we expected, the tossups didn’t hold.Which removes South Carolina from the list of states spanning 3 categories. We still have:
Connecticut: Electoral-vote.com has it as a toss-up – that won’t last.
Florida: NBC and CNN have it as a tossup, but Electoral-vote.com has it as Strong McCain. Expect everybody to move to McCain-Lean for now.
Indiana: Three have it as a toss-up, but NPR has it as Strong McCain. If Obama can keep this state in McCain-Lean, that’s a good sign in a state that Kerry lost by 21%.
New Mexico: OpenLeft has it as Obama-Lean, CNN at McCain-Lean
North Dakota – Two have it as tossup – that won’t last.
Map showing consensus of sources. Wisconsin moves from Obama to Tossup, as the last Obama-Lean ranking goes away. (But late update: A new poll just came out giving Obama a 13 point lead – expect WI to move quickly to Obama-Lean across the board).
<p><strong>><a href=’http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/’>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> – Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>
Consensus solid states:
Obama: CA, DC, HI, IL, MD, NY, RI, VT – 131 EVs.
McCain: AL, AZ, ID, KS, OK, TX, UT, WY – 78 EVs
(June11: TX added to McCain consensus solid states due to EV.com moving from ML to M.
The sources are now sorted by their Obama Estimate. The states are sorted by number of electoral votes.
| DCW General Election Tracker | |||||||||
| State | EVs | OpenLeft | Electoral- Vote.com |
NBC | CNN | 538.com | Front Loaded | NPR | …. |
| Date | 6/10 | 6/11 | 6/5 | 6/9 | 6/7 | 6/11 | 6/9 | ||
| Obama (O) | 185 | 175 | 153 | 153 | 178 | 142 | 143 | ||
| Obama-Lean (OL) | 57 | 59 | 47 | 37 | 50 | 65 | 57 | ||
| Tossup (T) | 89 | 94 | 138 | 154 | 94 | 129 | 111 | ||
| McCain-Lean (ML) | 61 | 57 | 84 | 69 | 78 | 56 | 110 | ||
| McCain (M) | 146 | 153 | 116 | 125 | 138 | 146 | 117 | ||
| Obama Total | 242 | 234 | 200 | 190 | 228 | 207 | 200 | ||
| McCain Total | 207 | 210 | 200 | 194 | 216 | 202 | 227 | ||
| Obama Est | 287.3 | 280.6 | 276.4 | 273.4 | 273.1 | 269.7 | 266.1 | ||
| Florida | 27 | ML | M | T | T | ML | ML | ML | |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | OL | OL | T | T | OL | T | T | |
| Ohio | 20 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | |
| Michigan | 17 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | |
| Georgia | 15 | M | M | ML | ML | M | M | ML | |
| New Jersey | 15 | O | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | |
| N. Carolina | 15 | ML | ML | ML | ML | ML | ML | ML | |
| Virginia | 13 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | |
| Massachusetts | 12 | OL | O | O | O | O | OL | O | |
| Indiana | 11 | T | T | ML | ML | ML | T | M | |
| Missouri | 11 | T | T | ML | T | T | T | ML | |
| Tennessee | 11 | M | M | M | M | M | M | ML | |
| Washington | 11 | O | O | OL | OL | O | OL | OL | |
| Minnesota | 10 | O | O | OL | T | O | OL | OL | |
| Wisconsin | 10 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | |
| Colorado | 9 | OL | OL | T | T | T | T | T | |
| Louisiana | 9 | M | ML | ML | ML | M | M | ML | |
| Kentucky | 8 | M | M | M | M | M | M | ML | |
| S. Carolina | 8 | ML | ML | M | M | ML | ML | M | |
| Conn. | 7 | O | T | O | O | OL | O | OL | |
| Iowa | 7 | OL | OL | T | T | OL | OL | T | |
| Oregon | 7 | O | O | OL | OL | O | OL | OL | |
| Arkansas | 6 | M | M | ML | ML | M | M | ML | |
| Mississippi | 6 | M | ML | ML | M | M | M | M | |
| Nebraska | 5 | M | M | ML | M | M | M | M | |
| Nevada | 5 | ML | ML | T | T | T | T | T | |
| New Mexico | 5 | OL | T | T | ML | T | T | T | |
| W. Virginia | 5 | M | ML | M | ML | ML | M | ML | |
| Maine | 4 | O | O | OL | OL | O | O | OL | |
| NH | 4 | T | OL | T | T | T | T | T | |
| Alaska | 3 | ML | ML | M | M | ML | ML | M | |
| Delaware | 3 | OL | OL | O | O | O | OL | OL | |
| Montana | 3 | ML | ML | ML | ML | ML | ML | ML | |
| N. Dakota | 3 | T | ML | ML | M | ML | T | M | |
| S. Dakota | 3 | M | M | M | M | ML | M | M | |
Notes:
We’re purposely ignoring Maine and Nebraska CD splits for now to keep things simple. We’ll add them in later if we need to.
The Obama estimate gives Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for them, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, and 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean.
538.com state projections determined from state winning percentage (>90%: Strong, 65-90%: Lean, 50-65%: Tossup). Overall number based on 538.com simulation.
Posted by Matt at 11:04 PM 
General Election Tracker – June 112008-06-11T23:04:00-04:00MattGeneral Election|Presidential Forecast|