Thursday, June 12, 2008
General Election Tracker – June 12
WE’VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com
This is the DemConWatch General Election Tracker, a summary of the best election projections on the web.
We will be introducing House and Senate trackers later this month.
Update 6/12: Updated OpenLeft, 538 and Electoral-Vote.com
Obama Average: 275.3 (was 275.2), some Indiana movement for McCain, Colorado and Wisconsin movement for Obama.
Here are the states that span 3 categories:
Connecticut: Electoral-vote.com has it as a toss-up – that won’t last.
Florida: NBC and CNN have it as a tossup, but Electoral-vote.com has it as Strong McCain. Expect everybody to move to McCain-Lean for now.
Indiana: Only Frontloading HQ still has it as a toss-up, but NPR has it as Strong McCain. If Obama can keep this state in McCain-Lean, that’s a good sign in a state that Kerry lost by 21%.
New Mexico: OpenLeft has it as Obama-Lean, CNN at McCain-Lean
North Dakota – Two have it as tossup – that won’t last.
Map showing consensus of sources. Wisconsin moves back to Obama.
<p><strong>><a href=’http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/’>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> – Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>
Consensus solid states:
Obama: CA, DC, HI, IL, MD, NY, RI, VT – 131 EVs.
McCain: AL, AZ, ID, KS, OK, TX, UT, WY – 78 EVs
The sources are now sorted by their Obama Estimate. The states are sorted by number of electoral votes.
| DCW General Election Tracker | |||||||||
| State | EVs | OpenLeft | 538.com | Electoral- Vote.com |
NBC | CNN | FHQ | NPR | …. |
| Date | 6/12 | 6/12 | 6/12 | 6/5 | 6/10 | 6/11 | 6/9 | ||
| Obama (O) | 182 | 178 | 175 | 153 | 153 | 142 | 143 | ||
| Obama-Lean (OL) | 70 | 69 | 59 | 47 | 37 | 65 | 57 | ||
| Tossup (T) | 68 | 75 | 83 | 138 | 154 | 129 | 111 | ||
| McCain-Lean (ML) | 72 | 70 | 68 | 84 | 69 | 56 | 110 | ||
| McCain (M) | 146 | 143 | 153 | 116 | 125 | 146 | 117 | ||
| Obama Total | 252 | 247 | 234 | 200 | 190 | 207 | 200 | ||
| McCain Total | 218 | 213 | 221 | 200 | 194 | 202 | 227 | ||
| Obama Est | 286.4 | 278 | 277.3 | 276.4 | 273.4 | 269.7 | 266.1 | ||
| Florida | 27 | ML | ML | M | T | T | ML | ML | |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | OL | OL | OL | T | T | T | T | |
| Ohio | 20 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | |
| Michigan | 17 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | |
| Georgia | 15 | M | M | M | ML | ML | M | ML | |
| New Jersey | 15 | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | |
| N. Carolina | 15 | ML | ML | ML | ML | ML | ML | ML | |
| Virginia | 13 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | |
| Massachusetts | 12 | O | O | O | O | O | OL | O | |
| Indiana | 11 | ML | ML | ML | ML | ML | T | M | |
| Missouri | 11 | T | T | T | ML | T | T | ML | |
| Tennessee | 11 | M | M | M | M | M | M | ML | |
| Washington | 11 | O | O | O | OL | OL | OL | OL | |
| Minnesota | 10 | O | O | O | OL | T | OL | OL | |
| Wisconsin | 10 | OL | OL | T | T | T | T | T | |
| Colorado | 9 | OL | OL | OL | T | T | T | T | |
| Louisiana | 9 | M | M | ML | ML | ML | M | ML | |
| Kentucky | 8 | M | M | M | M | M | M | ML | |
| S. Carolina | 8 | ML | M | ML | M | M | ML | M | |
| Conn. | 7 | O | OL | T | O | O | O | OL | |
| Iowa | 7 | OL | OL | OL | T | T | OL | T | |
| Oregon | 7 | O | O | O | OL | OL | OL | OL | |
| Arkansas | 6 | M | M | M | ML | ML | M | ML | |
| Mississippi | 6 | M | M | ML | ML | M | M | M | |
| Nebraska | 5 | M | M | M | ML | M | M | M | |
| Nevada | 5 | ML | T | ML | T | T | T | T | |
| New Mexico | 5 | OL | T | T | T | ML | T | T | |
| W. Virginia | 5 | M | ML | ML | M | ML | M | ML | |
| Maine | 4 | O | O | O | OL | OL | O | OL | |
| NH | 4 | T | T | OL | T | T | T | T | |
| Alaska | 3 | ML | ML | ML | M | M | ML | M | |
| Delaware | 3 | OL | O | OL | O | O | OL | OL | |
| Montana | 3 | ML | ML | ML | ML | ML | ML | ML | |
| N. Dakota | 3 | T | ML | ML | ML | M | T | M | |
| S. Dakota | 3 | M | ML | M | M | M | M | M | |
Notes:
We’re purposely ignoring Maine and Nebraska CD splits for now to keep things simple. We’ll add them in later if we need to.
The Obama estimate gives Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for them, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, and 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean.
538.com state projections determined from state winning percentage (>90%: Strong, 65-90%: Lean, 50-65%: Tossup). Overall number based on 538.com simulation.
Posted by Matt at 11:30 PM 
General Election Tracker – June 122008-06-12T23:30:00-04:00MattGeneral Election|Presidential Forecast|