Saturday, June 14, 2008
General Election Tracker – June 14
WE’VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com
This is the DemConWatch General Election Tracker, a summary of the best election projections on the web.
We will be introducing House and Senate trackers later this month.
Update 6/14: 538.com did a major change in the way they do their projections, and it gave Obama a big boost, moving their overall number from 285 to 308. and moving 9 states in Obama’s direction, and one state in McCain’s direction. The two changes they made was adding more historical polling data, going back to 1988, which show more volatility in polling than 2004 did. They also now assume that movement in national polls and state polls will eventually reflect in states which haven’t been polled recently.
Obama Index: 286 (was 281), due to the changes in 538.com.
Here are the states that span 3 categories:
Connecticut: Electoral-vote.com and 538 have it as a toss-up – that likely won’t last.
Florida: NBC and CNN have it as a tossup, but Electoral-vote.com has it as Strong McCain. Expect everybody to move to McCain-Lean for now. There hasn’t been a poll here since mid-May.
Indiana: Only Frontloading HQ still has it as a toss-up, but 3 sources have it as Strong McCain. If Obama can keep this state in McCain-Lean, that’s a good sign in a state that Kerry lost by 21%.
Minnesota: CNN has it as a Tossup. With Obama up 13 points in the latest Rasmussen poll, this won’t last.
New Mexico: Three sources have it as Obama-Lean, CNN has it at McCain-Lean. There hasn’t been a poll here since mid-May.
North Dakota – Two have it as tossup – that won’t last. There hasn’t been a state poll in ND since April.
Map showing consensus of sources. New Mexico and Michigan move to Obama, Virginia to McCain.
<p><strong>><a href=’http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/’>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> – Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>
Consensus solid states, not shown in the table below:
Obama: CA, DC, HI, IL, MD, NY, RI, VT – 131 EVs.
McCain: AL, AZ, ID, KS, OK, TX, UT, WY – 78 EVs
The sources are sorted by their Obama Index. The states are sorted by number of electoral votes.
| DCW General Election Tracker | |||||||||||
| State | EVs | 538. com |
Elect. Proj. | Open Left | EV.com | Ras- mussen |
NBC | CNN | FHQ | NPR | …. |
| Date | 6/14 | 6/12 | 6/12 | 6/12 | 6/13 | 6/5 | 6/10 | 6/11 | 6/9 | ||
| Obama (O) | 171 | 175 | 182 | 175 | 185 | 153 | 153 | 142 | 143 | ||
| Obama-Lean (OL) | 81 | 72 | 70 | 59 | 75 | 47 | 37 | 65 | 57 | ||
| Tossup (T) | 99 | 117 | 68 | 83 | 38 | 138 | 154 | 129 | 111 | ||
| McCain-Lean (ML) | 113 | 64 | 72 | 68 | 66 | 84 | 69 | 56 | 110 | ||
| McCain (M) | 71 | 110 | 146 | 153 | 174 | 116 | 125 | 146 | 117 | ||
| Obama Total | 252 | 247 | 252 | 234 | 260 | 200 | 190 | 207 | 200 | ||
| McCain Total | 184 | 174 | 218 | 221 | 240 | 200 | 194 | 202 | 227 | ||
| Obama Index | 308.5 | 303.9 | 286.4 | 277.3 | 277.2 | 276.4 | 273.4 | 269.7 | 266.1 | ||
| Florida | 27 | ML | T | ML | M | ML | T | T | ML | ML | |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | T | T | T | T | |
| Ohio | 20 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | |
| Michigan | 17 | T | T | T | T | OL | T | T | T | T | |
| Georgia | 15 | ML | ML | M | M | M | ML | ML | M | ML | |
| New Jersey | 15 | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | |
| N. Carolina | 15 | T | T | ML | ML | ML | ML | ML | ML | ML | |
| Virginia | 13 | T | T | T | T | ML | T | T | T | T | |
| Massachusetts | 12 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | OL | O | |
| Indiana | 11 | T | M | ML | ML | M | ML | ML | T | M | |
| Missouri | 11 | T | T | T | T | ML | ML | T | T | ML | |
| Tennessee | 11 | M | ML | M | M | M | M | M | M | ML | |
| Washington | 11 | O | O | O | O | O | OL | OL | OL | OL | |
| Minnesota | 10 | O | OL | O | O | O | OL | T | OL | OL | |
| Wisconsin | 10 | OL | OL | OL | T | OL | T | T | T | T | |
| Colorado | 9 | OL | T | OL | OL | T | T | T | T | T | |
| Louisiana | 9 | ML | ML | M | ML | M | ML | ML | M | ML | |
| Kentucky | 8 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | ML | |
| S. Carolina | 8 | ML | ML | ML | ML | M | M | M | ML | M | |
| Conn. | 7 | OL | O | O | T | O | O | O | O | OL | |
| Iowa | 7 | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | T | T | OL | T | |
| Oregon | 7 | OL | O | O | O | O | OL | OL | OL | OL | |
| Arkansas | 6 | M | M | M | M | M | ML | ML | M | ML | |
| Mississippi | 6 | ML | ML | M | ML | M | ML | M | M | M | |
| Nebraska | 5 | M | M | M | M | M | ML | M | M | M | |
| Nevada | 5 | T | T | ML | ML | T | T | T | T | T | |
| New Mexico | 5 | OL | OL | OL | T | OL | T | ML | T | T | |
| W. Virginia | 5 | ML | ML | M | ML | M | M | ML | M | ML | |
| Maine | 4 | O | O | O | O | O | OL | OL | O | OL | |
| NH | 4 | T | OL | T | OL | T | T | T | T | T | |
| Alaska | 3 | ML | M | ML | ML | M | M | M | ML | M | |
| Delaware | 3 | O | O | OL | OL | O | O | O | OL | OL | |
| Montana | 3 | ML | M | ML | ML | M | ML | ML | ML | ML | |
| N. Dakota | 3 | T | M | T | ML | M | ML | M | T | M | |
| S. Dakota | 3 | ML | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
Notes:
We’re purposely ignoring Maine and Nebraska CD splits for now to keep things simple. We’ll add them in later if we need to.
The Obama estimate gives Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for them, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, and 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean.
538.com state projections determined from state winning percentage (>90%: Strong, 65-90%: Lean, 50-65%: Tossup). Overall number based on 538.com simulation.
Posted by Matt at 10:56 PM 
General Election Tracker – June 142008-06-14T22:56:00-04:00MattGeneral Election|Presidential Forecast|