Monday, June 16, 2008
General Election Tracker – June 16
WE’VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com
This is the DemConWatch General Election Tracker, a summary of the best election projections on the web.
We will be introducing House and Senate trackers later this month.
Update 6/16: FiveThirtyEight modified their recent change in methodology, which knocked 3 EVs from Obama’s number.
Obama Index: 288 (was 286). There was scattered movement to Obama in various states, while 3 projections moved Oregon from Obama to Obama-lean.
Map showing consensus of sources. This table will show a state Blue or Red if a majority of the sources show it Leaning or Solid for that candidate. (This is a change from previous posts).
<p><strong>><a href=’http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/’>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> – Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>
Unanimous solid states, not shown in the table below:
Solid Obama: CA, DC, HI, IL, MD, NY, RI, VT – 131 EVs.
Solid McCain: AL, AZ, ID, KS, OK, TX, UT, WY – 78 EVs
(late update: AZ, KS, TX no longer Unanimous solid McCain – we will include in table in next update).
The sources are sorted by their Obama Index. The states are sorted by number of electoral votes.
| DCW General Election Tracker | |||||||||||
| State | EVs | 538. com |
Elect. Proj. | EV. com |
Open Left | RM | NBC | CNN | FHQ | NPR | …. |
| Date | 6/16 | 6/16 | 6/16 | 6/16 | 6/16 | 6/5 | 6/10 | 6/11 | 6/9 | ||
| Obama (O) | 178 | 161 | 168 | 175 | 185 | 153 | 153 | 142 | 143 | ||
| Obama-Lean (OL) | 69 | 103 | 76 | 77 | 75 | 47 | 37 | 65 | 57 | ||
| Tossup (T) | 131 | 100 | 93 | 68 | 38 | 138 | 154 | 129 | 111 | ||
| McCain-Lean (ML) | 86 | 55 | 81 | 78 | 66 | 84 | 69 | 56 | 110 | ||
| McCain (M) | 71 | 119 | 120 | 140 | 174 | 116 | 125 | 146 | 117 | ||
| Obama Total | 247 | 264 | 244 | 252 | 260 | 200 | 190 | 207 | 200 | ||
| McCain Total | 157 | 174 | 201 | 218 | 240 | 200 | 194 | 202 | 227 | ||
| Obama Index | 306 | 304 | 291 | 286 | 277 | 276 | 273 | 270 | 266 | ||
| Florida | 27 | T | T | ML | ML | ML | T | T | ML | ML | |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | T | T | T | T | |
| Ohio | 20 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | |
| Michigan | 17 | T | OL | T | T | OL | T | T | T | T | |
| Georgia | 15 | ML | M | M | M | M | ML | ML | M | ML | |
| New Jersey | 15 | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | |
| N. Carolina | 15 | T | T | T | ML | ML | ML | ML | ML | ML | |
| Virginia | 13 | T | T | T | T | ML | T | T | T | T | |
| Massachusetts | 12 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | OL | O | |
| Indiana | 11 | T | M | ML | ML | M | ML | ML | T | M | |
| Missouri | 11 | T | T | T | T | ML | ML | T | T | ML | |
| Tennessee | 11 | M | ML | M | M | M | M | M | M | ML | |
| Washington | 11 | O | O | O | O | O | OL | OL | OL | OL | |
| Minnesota | 10 | O | OL | O | O | O | OL | T | OL | OL | |
| Wisconsin | 10 | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | T | T | T | T | |
| Colorado | 9 | OL | T | OL | OL | T | T | T | T | T | |
| Louisiana | 9 | ML | ML | ML | M | M | ML | ML | M | ML | |
| Kentucky | 8 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | ML | |
| S. Carolina | 8 | ML | ML | ML | ML | M | M | M | ML | M | |
| Conn. | 7 | O | OL | T | O | O | O | O | O | OL | |
| Iowa | 7 | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | T | T | OL | T | |
| Oregon | 7 | OL | OL | OL | OL | O | OL | OL | OL | OL | |
| Arkansas | 6 | M | ML | ML | M | M | ML | ML | M | ML | |
| Mississippi | 6 | M | ML | ML | M | M | ML | M | M | M | |
| Nebraska | 5 | M | M | M | M | M | ML | M | M | M | |
| Nevada | 5 | T | T | T | ML | T | T | T | T | T | |
| New Mexico | 5 | T | OL | T | OL | OL | T | ML | T | T | |
| W. Virginia | 5 | ML | ML | ML | M | M | M | ML | M | ML | |
| Maine | 4 | O | O | O | O | O | OL | OL | O | OL | |
| NH | 4 | T | OL | OL | T | T | T | T | T | T | |
| Alaska | 3 | ML | M | ML | ML | M | M | M | ML | M | |
| Delaware | 3 | O | O | OL | OL | O | O | O | OL | OL | |
| Montana | 3 | ML | M | ML | ML | M | ML | ML | ML | ML | |
| N. Dakota | 3 | T | M | ML | T | M | ML | M | T | M | |
| S. Dakota | 3 | ML | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
Notes:
538 – FiveThirtyEight
Elect. Proj. – Election Projection
EV.com – Electoral-Vote.com
RM – Rasmussen
Here are the states that span 3 categories. Florida is removed from the list as EV.com moves it from McCain to McCain-Lean.
Connecticut: 538 moved CT all the way from Tossup to Obama, leaving only Electoral-vote.com having it as a toss-up – that likely won’t last. The only poll in the last 3 months showed Obama at +3 in late May.
Indiana: 538 and FHQ now have it as a toss-up, but 3 sources have it as Strong McCain. If Obama can keep this state in McCain-Lean, that’s a good sign in a state that Kerry lost by 21%.
Minnesota: CNN has it as a Tossup. With Obama up 13 points in the latest Rasmussen poll, this won’t last. (Of course, it would help if CNN updated their projection).
New Mexico: Three projections have it as Obama-Lean, CNN has it at McCain-Lean. There hasn’t been a poll here since mid-May.
North Dakota – Three have it as tossup – that won’t last. Or will it? There hasn’t been a state poll in ND since April.
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We’re purposely ignoring Maine and Nebraska CD splits for now to keep things simple. We’ll add them in later if we need to.
The Obama estimate gives Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for them, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, and 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean.
FiveThirtyEight state projections determined from state winning percentage (>90%: Strong, 65-90%: Lean, 50-65%: Tossup). Overall number based on FiveThirtyEight simulation.
Posted by Matt at 10:56 PM 
General Election Tracker – June 162008-06-16T22:56:00-04:00MattGeneral Election|Presidential Forecast|