Tuesday, June 24, 2008
General Election Tracker – June 24
WE’VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com
This is the DemConWatch General Election Tracker, a summary of the best election projections on the web. Please also check out our Senate Tracker, and the House tracker will be introduced later this month.
Update 6/24: DCW Obama Index (explanation below) goes up 1 to 299. Various projections moved pro-Obama and pro-McCain. (Previous erroneous comment about OpenLeft removed – wrong data was included).
Map showing consensus of sources. This table will show a state Blue or Red if a majority of the sources show it Leaning or Solid for that candidate.
<p><strong>><a href=’http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/’>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> – Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>
Unanimous solid states, not shown in the table below:
Solid Obama: CA, DC, HI, IL, MD, NY, RI, VT – 131 EVs. (Note, newly added RCP has CA as Obama-Lean. For now, I’m not adding CA to the table – we’ll see if RCP stays at this projection)
Solid McCain: AL, ID, KY (added), OK, UT, WY – 36 EVs
The sources are sorted by each projections Obama Index. The states are sorted by the number of electoral votes.
| DCW General Election Tracker | |||||||||||
| State | EVs | 538.com | Elect. Proj. | Open Left | EV. com |
RCP | RM | CNN | NBC | FHQ | …. |
| Date | 6/24 | 6/24 | 6/24 | 6/24 | 6/24 | 6/24 | 6/18 | 6/5 | 6/22 | ||
| Obama (O) | 183 | 187 | 169 | 172 | 91 | 200 | 153 | 153 | 153 | ||
| Obama-Lean (OL) | 123 | 97 | 107 | 40 | 147 | 84 | 58 | 47 | 54 | ||
| Tossup (T) | 86 | 80 | 91 | 170 | 137 | 14 | 133 | 138 | 129 | ||
| McCain-Lean (ML) | 110 | 70 | 46 | 51 | 70 | 66 | 69 | 84 | 71 | ||
| McCain (M) | 33 | 104 | 125 | 105 | 93 | 174 | 125 | 116 | 131 | ||
| Obama Total | 306 | 284 | 276 | 212 | 238 | 284 | 211 | 200 | 207 | ||
| McCain Total | 143 | 174 | 171 | 156 | 163 | 240 | 194 | 200 | 202 | ||
| Obama Index | 344 | 319 | 309 | 299 | 291 | 287 | 280 | 276 | 275 | ||
| Texas | 34 | ML | M | M | M | ML | M | M | M | M | |
| Florida | 27 | T | T | T | T | T | ML | T | T | ML | |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | OL | OL | OL | T | OL | OL | OL | T | T | |
| Ohio | 20 | OL | OL | OL | T | T | OL | T | T | T | |
| Michigan | 17 | OL | OL | T | T | T | OL | T | T | T | |
| Georgia | 15 | ML | ML | ML | T | ML | M | ML | ML | ML | |
| New Jersey | 15 | O | O | OL | OL | OL | O | OL | OL | OL | |
| N. Carolina | 15 | T | T | T | T | T | ML | ML | ML | ML | |
| Virginia | 13 | OL | T | T | T | T | ML | T | T | T | |
| Massachusetts | 12 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | OL | |
| Indiana | 11 | T | M | ML | ML | T | M | ML | ML | T | |
| Missouri | 11 | T | T | T | T | T | ML | T | ML | T | |
| Tennessee | 11 | ML | ML | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Washington | 11 | O | O | O | O | OL | O | OL | OL | O | |
| Arizona | 10 | ML | ML | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Minnesota | 10 | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | O | T | OL | OL | |
| Wisconsin | 10 | OL | OL | OL | O | OL | OL | T | T | T | |
| Colorado | 9 | OL | T | OL | T | T | T | T | T | T | |
| Louisiana | 9 | ML | ML | M | ML | ML | M | ML | ML | M | |
| Kentucky | 8 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| S. Carolina | 8 | ML | ML | ML | ML | M | M | M | M | ML | |
| Conn. | 7 | O | O | O | T | OL | O | O | O | O | |
| Iowa | 7 | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | T | T | OL | |
| Oregon | 7 | OL | OL | OL | T | OL | O | OL | OL | OL | |
| Arkansas | 6 | ML | ML | M | ML | M | M | ML | ML | M | |
| Kansas | 6 | ML | M | ML | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Mississippi | 6 | ML | ML | M | ML | ML | M | M | ML | M | |
| Nebraska | 5 | ML | M | M | M | M | M | M | ML | M | |
| Nevada | 5 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | |
| New Mexico | 5 | OL | OL | OL | OL | T | OL | ML | T | T | |
| W. Virginia | 5 | T | ML | M | ML | M | M | ML | M | M | |
| Maine | 4 | O | O | O | O | OL | O | OL | OL | O | |
| NH | 4 | OL | O | O | O | T | OL | T | T | T | |
| Alaska | 3 | T | M | ML | T | ML | M | M | M | ML | |
| Delaware | 3 | O | O | OL | OL | O | O | O | O | OL | |
| Montana | 3 | T | M | ML | ML | ML | M | ML | ML | ML | |
| N. Dakota | 3 | T | M | T | ML | M | M | M | ML | T | |
| S. Dakota | 3 | T | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| 538.com | Elect. Proj. | Open Left | EV. com |
RCP | RM | CNN | NBC | FHQ | …. | ||
Notes:
538 – FiveThirtyEight
Elect. Proj. – Election Projection
EV.com – Electoral-Vote.com
RM – Rasmussen
RCP – RealClearPolitics
Here are the states that span 3 categories.
- Alaska: 2 at Tossup, 4 at McCain-Strong. Rasmussen’s own poll shows McCain only up by 4, yet they still have AK as Likely-Republican, which we convert to McCain-Strong.
- Connecticut: Only Electoral-vote.com having it as a toss-up – that likely won’t last. The only poll in the last 3 months showed Obama at +3 in late May.
- Georgia: Electoral-Vote.com moves it to Tossup, based on the InsiderAdvantage poll
- Indiana: Three sources have it as a toss-up, but 2 sources have it as Strong McCain. But new SurveyUSA poll out today gives Obama a 1 pt lead.
- Minnesota: With Survey USA out on June 16 with a poll showing Obama only up by 1, CNN’s projection of a Tossup doesn’t look like as much of an outlier.
- Montana (NEW): 538 now has it as a Tossup. 2 Projections have it as Strong-McCain. Last poll was in April.
- New Hampshire: Three projections move this former? battleground state to Obama-Strong.
- New Mexico: Five projections have it as Obama-Lean, CNN has it at McCain-Lean. There hasn’t been a poll here since mid-May. Two recent polls show Obama up by 3 and 8 points.
- North Dakota – Three have it as tossup – that won’t last. Or will it? There hasn’t been a state poll in ND since April.
- Oregon (NEW) – One of the few Obama states that seems to be closing, with Obama only up by 3 in the latest SurveyUSA poll. 1 Tossup, 1 Obama-Strong.
- South Dakota: 538 has it as Tossup.
- Virgina (New): 538 has it as Obama-Lean, Rasmussen at McCain-Lean
- West Virginia: 538 has it as Tossup.
- Wisconsin: Electoral-Vote.com is the first to move this former battleground state to Obama-Strong.
We’re purposely ignoring Maine and Nebraska CD splits for now to keep things simple. We’ll add them in later if we need to.
What is the Obama Index? The Overall DCW Obama Index is just a straight average of the Obama Index for each projection. What is the Obama Index for each projection? For all projections other than FiveThirtyEight, the Obama Index gives Obama 100% of the Electoral Votes (EVs) in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, and 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean. (And obviously 0% of the Solid McCain states). For FiveThirtyEight, we use his overall estimate of Obama’s EVs. (See below for how we determine FiveThirtyEight’s state projections).
FiveThirtyEight state projections determined from state winning percentage (>90%: Strong, 65-90%: Lean, 50-65%: Tossup). Obama Index for 538 based on FiveThirtyEight simulation.
Posted by Matt at 10:47 PM 
General Election Tracker – June 242008-06-24T22:47:00-04:00MattGeneral Election|Presidential Forecast|