Heading into the election, we are facing only partially charted territory. This year, based on the votes so far, several states are going to have an unusually high number of mail-in ballots, especially in states that have somewhat restrictive rules on mail-in absentee ballots. As voters in state with a high percentage of late arriving mail-in absentee ballots know, when 35% of the vote remains to be counted after election day, it is not unusual to see tight races go back and forth as more ballots are counted. So here is what you need to know about the rules for processing ballots.
Generally speaking, for this purpose, there are four different ways to vote in the U.S. First, there is the traditional in-person vote on election day. Second, there is early in-person voting at vote centers. Third, there is the traditional mail-in absentee ballot. Finally, there are provisional votes.
For counting purposes, early in-person voting will generally be released on election night. In some states, the early voting numbers are released shortly after the polls close. For the in-person election day vote, that count tends to take a little bit longer. Since everyone in line at poll closing time votes, precincts actually close a little bit later than the official time. And, in many states, the ballots are then taken to a counting center. So it may take several hours to get the “election day” vote.
The nature of provisional votes is that the precinct level election officials are unable to verify whether a voter has the right to vote on election day in that precinct. As such, depending on the rules for validating a provisional vote, it can take several days before the count of provisional ballots even begin. However, in all but the closest race, the number of valid provisional votes is too small to change the results.
That leaves mail-in ballots as the key issue. As with most other election issues, the rules related to mail-in ballot are a matter of state law.
First, while every state requires that a ballot be mailed on or before election day, they have different deadlines for receipt. About half of the states require ballots be received (either in person or by mail) by the end of voting on November 3. Several states have earlier deadlines as follows: Alabama (noon on November 3); Arkansas (hand-delivered by November 2 but mail-in can be received on November 3); Indiana (noon on November 3); Louisiana (November 2); Oklahoma (November 2 for most voters or by November 3 for those with COVID-9 or November 3 depending on type of absentee ballot); and Vermont (hand-delivered by November 2 but mail-in can be received on November 3). And finally, by due date, the following states have a due date after November 3: Texas (November 4); Kansas (November 6); Kentucky (November 6); Massachusetts (November 6); Pennsylvania (November 6); Virginia (November 6); Iowa (post-marked by November 2 and received by noon on November 9); North Dakota (post-marked by November 2 and received by November 9); West Virginia (November 9); New York (November 4 if not post-marked, November 10 if post-marked); New Jersey (November 5 if not post-marked, November 10 if post-marked); Nevada (November 6 if no post-mark, November 10 if post-marked); Minnesota (November 10); Mississippi (November 10); North Carolina (November 12); Maine (November 13 by 10:00 a.m.); Ohio (post-marked by November 2 and received by November 13); Alaska (November 13); District of Columbia (November 13); Illinois (November 17); California (November 20); Washington (November 23). Utah basically has a local rule under which the ballot must be post-marked by November 2 and received before the county canvass (which can be as late as November 17),
Given the number of states that allow mail-in ballots to arrive within ten days of the election, a key issue during the count on November 3 will be the number of absentee ballots that have been mailed to the voter but not received by the election authority. How forthcoming the different states are with that information remains to be seen.
The other big issue with the vote count on absentee ballots is when the count can begin. And there are two different issues. The first is ballot processing (i.e. when can the election authority begin determining which mail-in ballots were sent by valid voters). The second is when the ballots can be run through the counting machine. The biggest delay to the count is ballot processing. Once ballots have been processed, you can feed ballots through the machine at a relatively high rate of speed.
For ballot processing, many states either allow/require the local election authority to determine the validity of the ballot upon receipt with another large group allowing the ballot processing to begin more than seven days before the election. Some states, however, have a shorter time frame. In Alabama, processing begins on the morning of November 3. In Delaware, ballot processing begins on October 30. D.C. is not specific on when ballot processing can begin. In Indiana, ballot processing begins on election day, but the election authority can check signatures earlier. In Iowa, processing begins on October 31. Kansas law does not specify when ballot processing can begin. In Kentucky, processing begins on the morning of November 3. In Louisiana, processing begins on November 2 or November 3 depending on the number of absentee ballots received. In Michigan, larger cities can begin processing on November 2 but other jurisdictions must wait until November 3. In Mississippi, processing can begin on November 3. In Missouri, processing can begin on October 29. In Montana, signature verification occurs upon receipt but processing otherwise starts on October 31. In New Mexico, it depends on the number of absentee ballots but, even in counties with fewer absentee ballots, processing can begin on October 30. In North Dakota, processing can begin on November 2. In Ohio, the statute does not specify when processing can begin. In Oklahoma, processing can begin on October 29. In Pennsylvania, ballot processing can begin on the morning of November 3. In South Carolina, processing can begin on November 1. In South Dakota, processing can begin when the envelopes are delivered to the precincts (apparently the morning of November 3). In Utah, the statute is not clear. In Virginia, the statute is not clear but allows processing to begin early enough to expedite the counting process. In West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming, the count begins on November 3.
In short, most states allow processing to being early enough that most absentee ballots are counted on election night. (In my county, even though processing does not begin until the Thursday before the election, absentee votes have normally been the first vote count released, frequently within ten to fifteen minutes after the polls close.) But, of the states that may be crucial to this election, Iowa only begins processing ballots on October 31; Michigan will only begin processing ballots on November 2 (and only in some cities), and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will not begin processing ballots until November 3.
Given these two circumstances, there are good reasons to believe that a large number of ballots will remain to be counted (either because they haven’t arrived yet or because the system is overwhelmed) in several key states. And based on current polling, this aspect of the system is likely to make things look better for Republicans on election night than the final results will show. In a state in which the Democrats are going to win by a large majority, the fact that the Biden/Harris ticket only has 55% of the vote on election night is no big deal. But in a close state, a Republican mirage will feed into Trump’s desire to throw the election into chaos.
There are things which good Democrats can do to prevent this. First, if you feel comfortable doing it and your state permits it, use the in-person early voting option. We know that these votes will be part of the count on election night. Second, if you are going to vote by mail, mail your ballot in now if you haven’t already done so. Quite simply put, doing so assures that your ballot will be received by the deadline and increases the chance that it is included in the election night count. Finally, if you are comfortable doing so and can take the time off from your regular job, contact your county party about signing up to work the count. Many states require that both parties have representation on the counting team. If a county does not have enough people willing to work, the process will take longer and fewer absentee ballots will be included in the election night results.
The reality is that, especially in states that allow for the possibility of a delay caused by the postal service, not all ballots will be counted by election night. But it matters whether the incomplete count represents 90% of all ballots or 50% of all ballots. For the first time in history, the President of the United States is calling into question the validity of ballots before they have even been received and examined. Under these circumstances, it is crucial that it be as clear as possible on election night that the voters have soundly rejected this demagogue. If he is leading on the morning of November 4, there is a real possibility that he will makes statements which will lead some of his more extreme supporters to attempt to disrupt the count like occurred in Miami-Dade in 2000. Except this time, it could be in multiple locations in multiple states. And the disruption is likely to be more violent than merely obstructing the counting process.
