As noted in the previous post, by 8 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, we should have a significant amount of precincts being reported in the two earliest states (Kentucky and Indiana) and should be starting to get some counties reporting votes in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia, and Vermont. During this hour, the counts in those states should be increasing. By 9 p.m., we should be seeing either some projection in those states or an indication that the states are too close too call. We may also be getting an indication in some of those states of how many absentee votes might remain to be counted (which could determine whether it will be possible to make any projection in those states on election night).
While it would be nice if we could get calls in a state like Virginia early in this hour, the bigger question as the hour goes will be the types of swings that we are seeing in these states. Virginia in 2016 was a leading indicator as we were just not getting strong results compared to 2012. So as this hour goes along and the networks start looking at the maps of the state, the key thing to pay attention to is how the numbers are comparing to 2016. Even if the networks aren’t comfortable in calling a state yet, if the results are showing that Trump is underperforming in red parts of a state (i.e. rural counties) and Biden is overperforming in the suburbs, then that is a good sign for the rest of the evening as Trump only one by the slimmest of margins in 2016 and any erosion in his support could prove fatal.
This hour has the most states close. You have partial closures in Florida (the rest of the state closed an hour earlier), Kansas, Michigan, South Dakota, and Texas. While a significant part of South Dakota will close an hour later, the polls close for most of the population in Kansas, Michigan, and Texas at 8 p.m. Eastern. In addition to these states, polls for the entire state close at 8 p.m. Eastern in Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, D.C., Illinois, Maine, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Tennessee.
As with the states that have closed earlier, the first thing to look for in these states is the release of early votes and mail-in votes. As noted in a previous post, in some states, you will get these numbers shortly after polls close, but, in other states, the rules are likely to delay the reporting of these votes which may make it hard to project a winner.
Going state-by-state in this group, the big race in Alabama is obviously the Senate race. Given how close the special election was, this race is going to be difficult to win. Even though the Republican candidate is an unqualified person who barely meets the residency requirements, that may not be enough to allow Senator Doug Jones to win re-election. On the other hand, Senator Jones is highly qualified and would certainly be a strong candidate for a cabinet position in January if the rest of the night goes well for Democrats. While the race should not be called immediately, there is a chance of a projection before the close of the hour. Obviously, a decision that the race is too close to call rather than too early to call would be a good sign that the Democrats are doing better than expected.
Connecticut, Delaware, D.C., Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, South Dakota, and Tennessee should not have any races that are particularly close or significant. If any seats flip or these states are too close to call, that would be a very big omen. Tennessee is an interesting state in that a tiny portion of it is in the Eastern time zone. Rather than having the Eastern part close an hour earlier (so that the local time is the same across the state), Tennessee chooses to have the entire state close at the same time (meaning different local times depending on where you live).
In Illinois, the Democrats picked up two suburban districts, the Sixth and Fourteenth in 2018. If Republicans are to have any shot at regaining the majority, they need to recapture this type of district. On the other hand, the Republicans barely won the Thirteenth District in 2018. The Thirteenth includes the University of Illinois and represents the type of district in which Republicans have been declining. We are early enough in the evening that results in these types of districts will be an indicator of the battle for the House (and maybe even the Senate and the White House).
Kansas will be a bit of a stretch for Joseph Biden, but it does have an interesting Senate contest. If the Democrats are to have any shot in the Senate race, they need to do well in the part of the state that will close at 8 p.m. Eastern. That part includes the state capitol, the University of Kansas, and the Kansas City suburbs. On the other hand, the part that closes at 9 p.m. Eastern includes much of the Republican candidate’s current congressional district. There are also two interesting Congressional District races. The Second District includes the outer suburbs of Kansas City, the University of Kansas, and the state capitol. This district is supposed to be a Republican district but it is an open seat as the Republicans kicked out the ethically-challenged incumbent (who narrowly won in 2018) in the primary. The Democrats have a good candidate, but the loss of the incumbent in the primary is going to make it very hard to take the seat. The Third District contains the inner suburbs of Kansas City. On paper, the district should favor the Republicans, but the loss of suburban votes by the Republican Party is felt the most in districts like this one. It was a pickup by the Democrats in 2018. The Republicans are already talking about how they are going to draw the district lines next year to try to secure both the Second and Third District, but — barring a very obvious gerrymander — that may not be possible especially with a Democratic Governor.
Maine is interesting in two ways. First, it uses ranked choice voting. That may result in us not knowing the final results until several days later when preferences are distributed. Second, Maine is one of two states that uses winner-take-most rather than winner-take-all. The First District should go with the Democrats even without distribution of preferences (both for Congress and the White House). But the Second District could be close. In 2018, Democrats won the Second District in the race for the HOuse based on the distribution of preferences. It could come down to preferences again. And if the electoral college vote is close, which party gets that one elector might be significant. In addition, you have the Senate race. Senator Susan “Hamlet” Collins trails in her race for re-election as voters have gotten tired of the moderate talk followed by conservative action. The big question in the Senate race appears to be whether the Democrats can get a majority on first preferences or the race will come down to the distribution of preferences.
As noted above, most of Michigan will close at 8 p.m. Besides the race for President, the polls are mixed in the race for Senate. The consensus appears to be that Senator Gary Peters will hold the seat but the polls show anything from a comfortable win to one within the margin of error. There are four potentially close House seats — two held by the Democrats and two that were won by Republicans in 2018 (although Representative Amash switched to Independent/Libertarian since the election but is not running for re-election). Due to Representative Amash’s decision not to run for re-election, the Third District is an open seat. It leans Republican but the handful of polls show it as a toss-up with a lot of undecided voters. Again, this seat should not be close but the Republican’s shedding of suburban voters puts it into play. The Sixth District is held by Representative Upton. This district is a bit of an uphill battle, but in a Democratic wave could switch. The Eighth and Eleventh Districts were Democratic gains in 2018. Again, if the Republicans are going to regain the majority, these are the type of seats that the Republicans need to win, but they look more likely to be Democratic holds. All of these races are in the Eastern part of the state, so we may have some idea of how they are shaping up in the first hour. However, Michigan is one of those states in which the initial results may only have a limited number of mail-in ballots. So these races might not be decided for a day or two.
In Mississippi, Democrats have a very outside chance at picking up the Senate seat. This race is a rematch from two years ago. There have not been many recent polls; so maybe things have changed. But the last polls from the summer showed the Republican incumbent with a narrow but comfortable lead in the upper single digits.
In Missouri, almost all of the Republican state-wide officials are holding offices other than the one that they won in 2016 due to the resignation of the Republican governor in 2018 which led to a massive reshuffle. There was a period during the summer when Governor Parsons seemed to be in trouble due to his mishandling of COVID-19. Current polling suggests a narrow lead with enough undecideds that an upset is possible, but it would be an upset. Missouri should be closer than it was four years ago. The big focus, however, may be on the Second District in suburban St. Louis. This seat was supposed to be a safe seat. The Republicans barely held onto it in 2018, and the Democrats have a stronger candidate this time. The Second District, like many other toss-up districts, reflects the changing political alignment of the suburbs. One reason why the Governor’s race is so important is that the Republicans will have a majority in the legislature for redistricting and will try to fix the lines to adjust to this reality. A Democratic governor would likely result in a 5-3 delegation after the 2022 elections. A Republican governor would almost certainly result in an even weirder map than the current one (home to the dead lizard Fifth District and lobster claw Third District). Lastly in 2018, the voters adopted substantial reforms to the legislative districting process which will likely spell the end to Republican supermajorities in the legislature, but the legislature put up a proposal to repeal those reforms. The vote on Amendment 3 is one of the state ballot issues that is going to be significant. It may take most of the night to get the results out of the urban parts of the state and we are used to close contests going to midnight or later, but we should have most of the results by first thing Wednesday morning.
New Hampshire has everything on the ballot — President, Senate, two competitive House seats, and Governor. While one or both of the House seats and the presidential election may be close, ultimately, it is likely that Democrats win everything but Governor. And New Hampshire is one in which we should have most of the ballots within a reasonable period of time on election night.
New Jersey should be all about the House. There are three house districts that could flip. All three are lean Republican districts that the Democrats won in 2018. One of them — the Second District — flipped back when Representative Drew switched parties after impeachment. Again, the two Democratic Districts — the Fifth and Eleventh — are the type of districts that Republicans need to win if they are to regain the majority, and the Second is the type of seat that Democrats need to win if they want to expand their majority. New Jersey does give absentee ballots additional time to reach the election authorities; so it will matter how many potential absentee votes are still outstanding.
Oklahoma should mostly go Republican. The big upset of the night in 2018 was the Democrats picking up the Fifth District. This seat is going to be hard to hold. It is the least Republican district in Oklahoma but it still leans heavily Republican. If Democrats can keep this seat (particularly if there is little ticket splitting) could be a very good omen. (Donald Trump got around 54% of the vote in this seat in 2016 to 40% for Secretary Clinton.)
Pennsylvania will be getting very close attention as the evening goes on. Absentee ballots are not due until the Friday after the election and election authorities can’t start counting them until the morning of the election. So this is one of the states in which you could see an early Trump lead and efforts to disrupt the rest of the count starting on Wednesday. If Biden is leading as the night goes on, that would be a very good sign for removing President Swamp Thing from the White House. The race for the House is very much on the ballot in Pennsylvania with five key races — three in Democratic seats and two in Republican seats — in what is currently a 9-9 delegation. In the unlikely event of nobody getting 270 electoral votes, the results of these races could determine who wins the White House. The First District is the eastern suburbs of Philadelphia. It was a narrow win for the Republicans in 2018. If this seat goes to the Democrats, it is highly likely that Joe Biden is carrying Pennsylvania. The Seventh and Eighth District are to the north of the First along the eastern border and include smaller cities like Lehigh and Scranton that were key to Donald Trump’s win in 2016. They are both considered to be swing districts; so solid wins for the incumbent Democrats would be a good sign for results in the rest of the state. It is a lean Republican District centered on the state capitol which the Republicans narrowly held in 2018. A pickup here would be both a good sign that Democrats are going to carry Pennsylvania and that Democrats will increase their majority in the House. The Seventeenth District contains the suburbs of Pittsburgh. On paper, it leans Republicans but it is currently held by the Democrats. As with other suburban districts, this district is the type of district that Republicans need to pickup if they are to gain control of the House.
The last of the 8 p.m. states is Texas. Texas may be the white whale of this election. “Everybody” knows that, at some point, the changing demographics and the political realignment of the suburbs is going to make Texas blue, but it always seems to be four or eight years away. The odds are that President Trump and Senator Conryn will narrowly hold onto Texas, but a loss would pretty much spell the end of the evening for Republican hopes to keep the White House and the Senate. The Senate seat is probably seat 56 or 57 on the list of potential Democratic Senate seats, and winning Texas probably puts Joe Biden over 350 electoral votes. What is really at play in Texas are a series of House seats. (There is also a chance that, if everything breaks right in the suburbs, that Democrats could gain the majority in the state House. Even a good night would probably deprive the Republicans of a working majority and allow deal making on redistricting.) Eight House districts could be competitive. Which ones are and who wins them will play a large role in which party has the majority and how big that majority is. The Seventh in Houston used to be represented by George H.W. Bush back in the 1960s. It is traditional Republican territory. The fact that it is now represented by a Democrat reflects both how that area is changing and how the Party of Trump has very little in common with the traditional Republican Party. Similarly, the Thirty-second District the suburbs of Dallas used to be a Republican seat but is now held by the Democrats. If the Republicans have any shot at the House, they need to win these seats, but they aren’t.
The Republicans are defending six seats, and five are potential toss-ups. The Tenth was gerrymandered to keep it as a Republican seat. In one of those “map-drawers have a sense of humor”, the Tenth District is basically the area north of Interstate 10 from Houston to Austin. Like Texas as a whole, this seat may be one step too far (having too many rural votes), but the fact that Republicans have to fight to defend this seat weakens their ability to fight elsewhere. The Twenty-first covers the suburbs between San Antonio and Austin. Former gubernatorial candidate Wendy Davis is the Democratic challenger in seat that Republicans barely held in 2018. The Twenty-second used to be held by such notables as Ron Paul and Tom Delay. This is another suburban-type district in which what should be a safe seat has become a toss-up seat. The Twenty-third District covers the upper Rio Grande valley to the east of El Paso. (A very tiny sliver may actually be in Mountain Standard Time). The Twenty-fourth District is centered on that part of the Dallas-Forth Worth are between those two cities. The Republican incumbent is tired of having to run tight races in a toss-up seat and having to explain that he is not Donald Trump. As an open seat, it is likely to flip. The Thirty-first is another suburban seat that was way too close for comfort in 2018.
We should get most of the results from Texas by the end of the evening, but some of these races may take several hours to get a conclusive result. While flipping all six of the Republican seats is unlikely, such a result would actually give Democrats the majority of the Texas delegation.
Finally, Arkansas closes at 8:30 p.m. EST. The Democrats could not find a Senate candidate in Arkansas which is a sign of how unlikely Joe Biden is to carry the state. The only race in which the Democrats have an outside chance is the Second District which includes the area around Little Rock. As in other lopsided states, the Second District is only likely Republican rather than safe Republican (and the lines will almost certainly be redrawn to eliminate any chance that the Democrats have at this seat).
As the hour draws to a close, there are theoretically enough electoral votes that somebody could have enough electoral votes to have won the election. However, that is highly unlikely, there are enough Democratic states like Illinois and New Jersey and enough Republican states like Alabama, Arkansas, and Mississippi that it would represent a landslide result for either candidate to have already gotten to 270 electoral votes. What is more likely is that we will start to have a very good idea of where states stand. You will have had two hours of votes being counted in Florida, Georgia, and Virginia. By this point, we should be past “too early to call” and should be able to tell if these states are really “too close to call.” If Joe Biden has a comfortable lead in Virginia and is very close in Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina, there is a good chance that Biden will win. If Trump has already picked up Georgia and North Carolina and Virginia is very close, we could be looking at a repeat of 2016. We should also be getting some projections on some of the “toss-up” Congressional races. If the Democrats are gaining seats, they should be able to easily hold the majority and might get the Senate too. If the Republicans are gaining seats, the House might be in play and the Senate might be out of reach.
