As the major networks into the second hour of coverage, the focus begins to move from exit polls to actual returns. Counting the split states in their main time zone, polls have now closed in the overwhelming majority of states. For the first group of states (the ten that closed before 8:00 p.m. EDT), you now have a good chunk of the returns from rural counties and you will have most of them by the end of this hour). For the second group of states (the twenty that closed between 8:00 p.m. and 8:59 p.m.), those returns are just starting to come in. In both cases, the people doing the math are comparing those returns to the results from 2016 and 2020 to see what, if anything has changed (percentages, margins, turnout). And while you tend to have good exit polls for the statewide races, many congressional districts need these early returns to confirm the anticipated results.
This hour will see the remaining polls close in Michigan, Kansas, South Dakota, and Texas. We will also see the polls close in Nebraska, which like Tennessee in the previous hour, opts to close all polls at the same time even though the state has two time zones (so the eastern part of the state closes at 8:00 p.m. local time and the western part of the state closes at 9:00 p.m. local time). You have the last of the Eastern Time Zone states, New York, close its polls at 9:00 p.m. local time. You have four Central Time Zone states — Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, and most significantly Wisconsin — close at 8:00 p.m. local time along with the eastern half of North Dakota. Finally, polls close at 7:00 p.m. local time in four states located in the Mountain Time Zone of which the most significant is Arizona but also includes Colorado, New Mexico, and Wyoming. At the end of this hour, we will only be waiting on polls to close in ten states.
Arizona is one of the two big states closing this hour. While the easiest way for Kamala Harris to win the election is by sweeping the northern blue belt states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin), winning in Arizona would allow Vice-President Harris to win if she loses Wisconsin. At the Senate level, the unpredictable Kyrsten Sinema read the writing on the wall and decided to call it at one term. Representative Ruben Gallego is favored to keep the Senate seat in Democratic hands but chief election denier Kari Lake will make it closer than it should be and will fight in court for the next three years if she does not win. The Democrats are favored to keep the three seats that they currently hold in the House, but have fighting chances in three of the six seats held by Republicans. The first district is a toss-up district (R+1) in which the Democrats have a well-funded challenger. But we have seen this story before and Representative David Schweikert always seems to find a way to survive. The second district is a little more of a longshot as it is a lean Republican district (R+6). While the Democratic candidate has enough funding to run a strong campaign, unlike the first district, Republican Eli Crane has more money than his opponent. The second is only likely to fall in a Democratic wave. The last close district in Arizona in the sixth district. Representative Juan Ciscomani narrowly won in 2022 and is facing a rematch this year. The fundraising total for both candidates is approximately even.
Ballot propositions could make the difference in Arizona. Republicans in the legislature have proposed a referendum locking in the current partisan primary system which allows Trumpy candidates to win three-way primaries in deep red districts and the coast in the general election. Votes have proposed a top four system with ranked choice voting in the election which would tend to elect more moderate Republicans in those districts. It is unclear if either proposal will get a majority as some will opt to leave it up to future legislatures. There are a lot of other propositions including a proposal t lower the minimum wage for tipped workers. These proposals could drive turnout which could make a difference in the close elections.
In Colorado, the main story on election night is the race that did not happen. Representative Lauren Boebert barely won reelection in the third district (western Colorado) in 2022. Democrats were eager for a rematch and this time intended to put the money into the district that it would take to win. Seeing the writing on the wall, Representative Boebert decided to parachute into the fourth district (eastern Colorado) when that seat became open. The fourth district is six points more Republican than the third district. As a result, until she has an opportunity to wear on the voters in that district, she is probably safe. And by replacing Representative Boebert with a less well-known candidate, the Republicans will probably keep the third district although all the money that came into the race to defeat Representative Boebert gives the Democrat a fighting chance in what will be a hard race to win. With the presidential race being a likely win for Vice-President Harris, the only close race will likely be in the eighth district — the only true toss-up district in the state (even) which slightly favors the Democrats. Democratic Representative Yadira Caraveo should manage to hold on and be reelected, but it’s still the only seat that is a realistic pick up opportunity for either party.
There are several propositions on the ballot which could influence the outcomes in Colorado. These issues include: 1) reproductive freedom; 2) school choice; 3) truth-in-sentencing; 4) top four primary/ranked choice voting; and 5) repealing the ban on gay marriage. Some of these questions should encourage progressive voters to vote but others will encourage conservative voters to vote.
Over the past sixteen years, Iowa (like Missouri to its south) has become non-competitive at the state level. But state law encourages the creation of competitive districts when possible. That creates a situation which is the opposite of what occurs in many states. In most states, you have very large cities which form the core of safe Democratic districts leaving the Republicans with an advantage when it comes to carving the rural and suburban parts of the state into districts. In Iowa, rural western Iowa is overwhelmingly Republican. That leaves the rest of the state as semi-competitive. While the first, second, and third district all lean slightly Republican, they are all winnable. All three districts are currently held by Republicans, and the Democrats in the first and third district are well-funded. While Republicans are favored to win both, they do represent a good chance for Democrats to pick up seats. These seats are not essential to Democrats winning a narrow majority, but they would give Speaker Jeffries a little bit of a cushion. Iowa is another state where Republicans have put an “immigrants are voting illegally” proposition on the ballot, but this proposition also includes language clarifying that people who will turn eighteen before the general election can vote in the primary (i.e. those with birthdays between June and October).
Louisiana does not have primary elections. It has what is sometimes called a jungle primary — an open nonpartisan election with a runoff provision. So sort of a top-two primary with no guarantee of a second round. The presidential election in Louisiana is not in doubt. Instead, the races are at the congressional level. Like Alabama, Louisiana drew racially gerrymandered districts in 2021, and had to redraw districts. The resulting map has some weird shapes which some Republicans are claiming is proof that the new maps are also a racial gerrymander, but the weirdness is not caused by the need to comply with the Voting Rights Act. It is caused by desire to protect one Republican over another in drawing fair districts. The Republicans opted to sacrifice Representative Garrett Graves who supported the wrong Republican for governor. As a result, the sixth district is an open African-American majority district. There are four Democrats and one Republican running, and this seat could go to a runoff. The favorite appears to be former Representative Cleo Fields who is the best funded of the group. He should, at least, make the runoff and might be able to win it outright. In any case, barring an upset, this seat should be a Democratic gain. But this seat along with the new African-American seat in Alabama is only a gain of two seats which are offset by the four seats which Republicans are gaining as a result of the new lines in North Carolina. So the Democrats need a gain of seven seats in the rest of the country to gain the majority.
Barring a big win by Donald Trump nationally, Minnesota should go for Vice-President Harris. And Senator Amy Klobuchar should win reelection. The key race is the second district, a lean Democratic toss-up seat. Representative Angela Craig should win reelection, but all of her races have been close. In the three previous races, she has gotten between 48% and 52%. Fortunately, the Republican has never gotten more than 48%, but the 2020 race was only decided by 10,000 votes. The seat is losable, and the Democrats need to avoid losses in this type of race.
Nebraska, like Tennessee in the previous hour, is one of two states that closes all polls across the state simultaneously even though the state is split between two time zones (Central and Mountain). Also, like Maine, in the previous hour, it awards electoral votes by congressional district. And like Maine, there is a competitive congressional district that recently has tended to vote differently than the rest of the state. In Nebraska, In Nebraska, that district is the second congressional district which is a toss-up district (Even) with a slight Democratic lean. Not only does that give Vice-President Harris a good chance at winning that electoral vote, it also gives Democrats a chance at picking up that congressional seat. But the second district has been a difficult hill for Democrats to climb at the congressional level. While all the races have been close, Democrats have only one this seat once in the past two decades (2014). Democrats are again making a push to defeat Representative Ron Bacon — one of the few moderate conservatives left in the House. It is definitely winnable as Representative Bacon has never won by more than 20,000 votes.
Normally, the Senate race would be an easy prediction in Nebraska. And the special election to fill the rest of former Senator Ben Sasse’s term looks like an easy win for his replacement — Pete Ricketts. But a race has developed for the other Senate race. Democrats opted against fielding a candidate against Republican Senator Debra Fischer. But most Democrats are supporter pro-labor independent Dan Osborn who appears to have made a race out of it. There is no guarantee that Mr. Osborn would caucus with the Democrats, but he does give Democrats hope of adding one to their caucus.
Possibly influencing that Senate race and the races in the second district are two competing amendments — one which would ban abortion after the first trimester and one that would protect reproductive freedom. There is a also a proposition to legalize medical marijuana.
New Mexico has a Senate race this cycle. But the expectation is that Senator Martin Heinrich and Vice-President Harris will win the state-wide races. The only competitive congressional race is the second district. The second district is a toss-up seat that narrowly leans in favor of the Democrats (D+1). Democratic Representative Gabe Vasquez is favored to be reelected, but he is facing a tough challenge from form Republican Representative Yvette Herrell. This race is a rematch from 2022 when Representative Vasquez ousted Representative Herrell by 1,350 votes. In short, this seat is high on the Republican targets this cycle.
New York is one of two states that closes at 9:00 p.m. local time. The expectation is that the statewide races will be comfortable wins for Vice-President Harris and Senator Kirsten Gillibrand. Like North Carolina, New York had a second round of redistricting after favorable court rulings held that the districts imposed by the courts in the last cycle were only temporary lines. New York was not as aggressive as North Carolina. As such, there are not a large number of sure pickups, but there a lot of competitive races which could lead to additional seats for the Democrats. The seats that could change hand are the first, fourth, seventeenth, eighteenth, nineteenth, and twenty-second. Of these seats, only the eighteenth is currently held by a Democrat (Representative Pat Ryan). The current estimates have Democrats likely to win three or four of these seats. If they could win five of the six, that would offset the expected losses in North Carolina. But even picking up four would be a big step toward winning back the House.
Wisconsin is the second critical state to close this hour at 8:00 p.m. local time. Berring a major polling area that favors Vice-President Harris, Wisconsin is one of the toss-up states that could decide a close presidential election. Wisconsin also continues the theme of the Republican attempt to regain the Senate this year — running a carpet-bagger multi-millionaire who can self-finance his campaign. As with Pennsylvania last hour, Wisconsin is really a must-win state if Democrats are to have any hope of keeping the Senate. It would take a highly unusual pattern of results for Democrats to lose the Senate race in Wisconsin but hold all the other Senate seats and pick-up Texas or Florida.
There are two house races in Wisconsin that are potentially close. Both are lean Republican seats in which the incumbent Republican is potentially vulnerable. Both Democratic challengers are decently funded, but, unlike in many other districts, the Republican incumbents have more money.
Lastly, Wyoming is on the list of states in which the races should be quickly projected after polls close.
By the close of the hour, we will have a lot of returns from the states that closed at 8 or earlier. These returns will mostly consist of early voting and rural counties. If Democrats are ahead in the key states that closed by 8 p.m., those states will probably be projected for Democrats shortly. If the Republicans are ahead, it depends upon how much as the returns for the rest of the evening in those states should be favorable for the Democratic candidates. Based on recent history, it is unlikely that we will have a national winner predicted before 10:00 p.m. Eastern. But depending on how the night is going, pressure could be mounting in Mar-a-Lago. Given the way that ballots are counted, it is unlikely that the media will quickly project either Pennsylvania or Wisconsin for Trump, but he could very easily take an early lead in those states. At some point in the evening, he is probably going to declare victory based on a shaky lead in some key states and declare that, if/when he falls behind Vice-President Harris, that would be proof of fraud. If he feels confident in the results, that declaration will probably come later in the evening. But if the numbers are bad, expect that declaration to be very soon before he falls clearly behind.
