Friday, January 11, 2008
Superdelegates: Numbers Madness
WE’VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com
In the sidebar at left we’re tracking the number of superdelegates who have announced endorsements. But we’re not the only organization tracking superdelegate endorsements. (Although we are the only site that backs up their numbers with published sources). And the numbers vary depending on whether the superdelegates for Florida and Michigan are counted.
Here’s where our numbers stand vs some major media organizations:
Includes Florida and Michigan:
| Clinton Obama Edwards Kucinich |
DCW 177 70 30 2 |
Without Florida and Michigan:
| Clinton Obama Edwards Kucinich |
DCW 169 67 29 1 |
CNN 159 53 34 1 |
CBS 177 68 40 1 |
AP 160 59 32 1 |
We’re pretty much on track, although the Edwards numbers are low. Help us out Edwards folks, where are your endorsements?
Update: See the sidebar for the latest numbers.
Posted by Matt at 11:08 PM 
Looking at your delegate tables in the sidebar right now, I see that both tables show 2,025 as the total number of delegates needed.
I don’t know if the 2,025 figure includes the MI and FL delegates or not, but surely it needs to be adjusted for one of the two tables.
Fixed. Thanks for catching the mistake.
It’s less a victory for the Obama camp than an acknowledgement of reality. If it’s a close enough fight that MI and FL would tip the balance, that would mean that Obama would win in their absence – and so he’d also have the votes to deny their credentials. The only point of publishing these tallies is on the presumption that the delegate count isn’t a foregone conclusion. Ergo, since in a tight race they won’t count, they don’t belong in the tallies.
Of course, a race that’s so tight that two states could tip it over is extraordinarily improbable. And if it ain’t that tight, they’ll be seated.