Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Kentucky and Oregon Primary Results
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Kentucky and Oregon hold their primaries today. A total of 103 delegates are up for grabs.
Polls opened in Kentucky at 6am EDT and close at 6pm in the Eastern and Central time zones.. There are a total of 51 pledged delegates which include 34 district, 11 at-large and 6 pledged PLEOs.
Oregon votes by mail-in ballot. Ballots must be received at the elections office by 8 PM PDT. There are a total of 52 pledged delegates which include 34 district, 12 at-large and 6 pledged PLEOs.
Clinton wins Kentucky. Obama wins Oregon.
| Delegates Left |
% Vote In | % Clinton | %Obama | Delegates Clinton | Delegates Obama | |
| Kentucky | 0 | 100% | 65% | 30% | 37 | 14 |
| Oregon | 0 | 99% | 41% | 59% | 22 | 30 |
| Previously Pledged Delegates (GP) | 1442.5 | 1612.5 | ||||
| Total Pledged Delegates | 1501.5 | 1656.5 | ||||
| Superdelegate Endorsements | 277.5 | 304.5 | ||||
| Total Delegates |
1779 | 1961 | ||||
| Delegates Still Needed to Win Nomination | 246 | 64 |
Next up is Puerto Rico on June 1st.
Posted by Oreo at 5:45 PM 
Does anyone know how late into the night it will be before we get results from Oregon? What I mean is: do election officials wait until 8pm Tuesday before counting any ballots? Or have they been counting ballots on a daily basis for the past two weeks (as they are mailed in)?
I’m on the east coast, and I really don’t want to stay up until 3am waiting…
It seems unfair for the Oregon voters to only have one hour in which to vote. (humor; typo in primary post)
Fixed… thanks.
They’ve had plenty of time to mail in their ballots 😉
Plus… I’m still shaken up about the Oreo thing.
I blogged about this at DailyKos. Link is here.
FYI, by this I mean the Oregon elections process.
Correct the post, there is no such thing as polls opening in Oregon, only a ballot deadline since we have vote by mail.
Thanks skywalker… fixed
Thanks skywalker, your dailykos post is great.
Oreo: half of Kentucky is in the central time zone, so I don’t expect the networks to start posting returns until 7pm EDT.
Kentucky breakpoints:
KY-01,KY-02,KY-04,KY-05: 5 delegates
0: 0-15%
1: 15-30%
2: 30-50%
3: 50-70%
4: 70-85%
5: 85%+
KY-06,PLEO: 6 delegates
0: 0-15%
1: 15-25%
2: 25-41.67%
3: 41.67-58.33%
4: 58.33-75%
5: 75-85%
6: 85%+
KY-03: 8 delegates
0: 0-15%
1: 15-18.75%
2: 18.75-31.25%
3: 31.25-43.75%
4: 43.75-56.25%
5: 56.25-68.75%
6: 68.75-81.25%
7: 81.75-85%
8: 85%+
At Large: 11 delegates
0: 0-15%
2: 15-22.73%
3: 22.73-31.82%
4: 31.82-40.91%
5: 40.91-50%
6: 50-59.09%
7: 59.09-68.18%
8: 68.18-77.27%
9: 77.27-85%
11: 85%+
Dan: I believe this is the official answer to your question: http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/enr_pre8pm.html. As a practical matter, I’m pretty sure — as a longtime Oregonian — that no ballots may be counted until after the polls close. Fortunately, it seems to go pretty fast, since the preliminary ballot-reading is done by machine. The local news stations start predicting winners at about 8:01, with very small percentages of the votes being counted. Over the years, I’ve gotten to where I just watch other things till the 11:00 news, by which time a good portion of the ballots have been tallied, but still generally wait until Wednesday morning for anything “official.”
What I’ve read is that they prepare the mail-ins ahead of time – open the envelopes, verify what needs to be verified, do everything except the final step – the actual counting – which starts at 8. Theres also need to allow everyone on line at poll-closing time to vote, since there are no lines or polls – so all counting can start at 8.
They can start counting as early as 12:01 AM local time Tuesday. Results aren’t released until then but they can sure as heck count. Otherwise how would Multnomah County always release a huge batch of results right at 8 PM.
As to Oregon elections staff doing work preparatory to the actual counting, Oregon law (Oregon Revised Statute 254.478 – Preparation for counting ballots) provides as follows:
“Not sooner than the seventh day before the date of an election, in preparation for counting ballots delivered by mail, the county clerk may begin opening return identification and secrecy envelopes of ballots delivered by mail and received by the county clerk. The county clerk may take any other actions that are necessary to allow the counting of ballots delivered by mail to begin on election day.”
And yes, if people are waiting in line to drop off their ballots, they are considered to be in the process of voting and their votes will count.
Here’s my ‘night before’ prediction for KY: (Clinton’s total first, then Obama’s)
KY-01 3-2
KY-02 3-2
KY-03 5-3
KY-04 3-2
KY-05 4-1
KY-06 4-2
PLEO: 4-2
At Lg 7-4
———
TOT 33-18
There’s a small chance, if he does very well, that Obama will have a 4-4 split in KY-03. I figure he’ll get 42.5%. If he does 1.25% better he’ll get the split.
My prediction is that Clinton will have a net gain of 15. To put that into perspective, Obama has had a net gain of 18.5 in superdelegates since last Tuesday (when WV voted)
I happily stand corrected. Thanks for the information.
Your analysis basically looks right-on to me, Paul–though I think there may be greater possibility of a 4-4 split in KY-03 (Louisville). I also think a 3-3 split in KY-06 (Lexington, Frankfort) is not out of the question.
My breakdown of Kentucky was that at best Clinton would get the following
Clinton-Obama
CD01 4-1
CD02 4-1
CD03 5-3
CD04 4-1
CD05 4-1
CD06 4-2
At-large 8-3
PLEO 4-2
However, I think that Obama has a fighting chance to make it 3-2 in the First, 3-2 in the Second, 4-4 or 3-5 in the Third, 3-2 in the Fourth, 3-3 in the Sixth, and 7-4 at-large. It is entirely possible that in most of the districts, the delegate race will be decided by less than 2%.
So somewhere between 37-14 and 30-21.
In Indiana, another two time zone state, the networks did not wait for the polls to close in the West, but reported results as soon as the Eastern polls closed. In fact, they kept complaining about how “slow” the count was in the West.
Sen. Obama needs to pick up approx. 10 delegates from Kentucky to reach a pledge delegate majority.
Thanks for the delegate estimate in KY.
How many delegates is Obama expected to get out of Oregon?
Obama could get anywhere from a high of 34 (out of 52) to a low of about 28 I would think in OR. Most estimates have it at 32-20, 33-19 or 31-21.
@johncz
why should obama need any delegates from kentucky at all? he’s just 15 delegates away from a majority…
On TV CNN is now showing that Oregon polls close at 11pm eastern time.
Which is 8PM Pacific Time
KY results are starting to trickle in now. For those who are curious, the NYT is one of the few sites which lists the percentage given to Edwards and “uncommitted”:
http://politics.nytimes.com/
election-guide/2008/
results/states/KY.html
Why is the Edwards percentage so much lower than in WV, where he got 7%?
KY after 7% :
HRC 51.7
BHO 45.1
Uncommitted 1.7 Edwards 1.5
Including ballots from Lexington and Louisville (not just rural KY then)
To KCIND :
1) to early in the count to tell
2) Edwards made the official endorsement since WV and exit polls showed it played a role (http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5j-rJkxLbJTFVe7_sztS_x_XcNpQwD90PJTVO1 )
Oreo –
Those darn ol’ time zones 😉
CD3 (Jefferson County) potentially heading for Obama or a tie (4-4) : 51/46 after 67% reporting
hmm… again ?
rural areas trends…
I’m sorry, but looking at your elections in detail, I shudder to think that the US is offering democracy to the rest of the world.
I think you guys need to get your own act in order before exporting your brand of human rights and equality..
..
sick.. really
What’s with the 2222 in the Kentucky Delegates column for Clinton?
Ok, here is my prediction on KY:
CD1: Obama 1, Clinton 4
CD2: Obama 1(2), Clinton 3(4)
CD3: Obama 4, Clinton 4
CD4: Obama 1, Clinton 4
CD5: Obama 0, Clinton 5
CD6: Obama 2(3), Clinon 3(4)
At-large: Obama 4, Clinton 7
PLEOs: Obama 2, Clinton 4
Total: Obama 15(17), Clinton 34(36)
CD6 is heading toward Obama 2 Clinton 4!
Something unique has happened – Obama is not viable in a single CD for first time in the campaign!
I`m not surprised that district has a awful demographic if you look at what kind of voters Obama attracked. They are white, don`t have any education and are poor. I`m sorry to say it, but it is a place where i would think racism plays a huge role
Still, that never happened before! She was non viable multiple times, she was not viable in whole contests, but he – not!
The results are all but final now. We don’t know just 2 things – if CD2 will get a 2nd delegate for Obama and if he will drop under 4 delegates at-large!
here is the update:
CD1: Obama 1, Clinton 4
CD2: Obama 1(2), Clinton 3(4)
CD3: Obama 4, Clinton 4
CD4: Obama 1, Clinton 4
CD5: Obama 0, Clinton 5
CD6: Obama 2, Clinton 3
At-large: Obama 3(4), Clinton 7(8)
PLEOs: Obama 2, Clinton 4
Total: Obama 14(16), Clinton 35(37)
Amot, that is not completely true, as Obama will win in CD3, though probably not by enough to gain more than a split in that district.
One question: I’ve read that in each district, a candidate must get a certain percentage of the vote to gain a certain number of delegates. But there is one thing that is not entirely clear to me and can best be illustrated with an example.
Say that in KY6, which has 6 delegates, Clinton got 58.2% and Obama 37%, with other candidates/uncommitted receiving 4.8% of the vote. How would delegates be allocated then? Obama’s percentage falls within the two delegate range, while Clinton’s falls in the three delegate range, adding up to one short of the number of delegates for the district. Would the percentage of the Clinton-Obama vote, rather than the percentage of the total vote, be considered then?
Hope I made my question clear.
Welcome to Floyd County, KY (CD-5) : 97.73% white – median household income $21,168 – 26.9% of families and 30.3% of the pop below poverty line. 92%-5% for HRC vs BHO after 79% reporting.
Places of interest : the Middle Creek National Battlefield and a Hillary Rodham Clinton Statue in downtonw Prestonsburg, KY.
I should clarify one thing in my last comment – the first paragraph was referring to amot’s statement in an earlier post about not being viable in any district. Amot’s latest post had not displayed yet when I started typing.
Jack, for the percentage breakdown, you only use the viable candidates. For example, if the result was 60% for one candidate, 30% for the second, and 10% for the remaining candidates, you would exclude the 10% that went for the non-viable candidates and recalculate the percentages only using hte 90% of the vote that went to the viable candidates with the new numbers being 66.67% to 33.33%.
The delegate count for Obama is 14 (he reached the majority of delegates) and this contest should be over.
not by our counts – soon, but not yet
to Janice : 34-14, that’s according to CNN after 97%.
the winner is the DNC : after 97% reporting, the GOP claimed 190k voters in KY vs 666ks for the Dems.
let’s hope all of them will show up in november.
Jack, tmess explained it correct! And Obama is not viable means he failed to win 15% in CD6 and will get zero delegates form that district! Out of several hundred districts nationwide that is the only one he fails!
We have CD2 final the trend continued and it went Obama 1 , Clinton 4
Finals:
CD1: Obama 1, Clinton 4
CD2: Obama 1, Clinton 4
CD3: Obama 4, Clinton 4
CD4: Obama 1, Clinton 4
CD5: Obama 0, Clinton 5
CD6: Obama 2, Clinton 4
At-large: Obama 3, Clinton 8
PLEOs: Obama 2, Clinton 4
Total: Obama 14, Clinton 37
He still can get a 4th at-large if provisionals and absentees favor him since he is somewhat 0.3-0.5% short of the breakpoint!
cnn just announced obama reached pledged delegate majority…
Thanks to tmess2 for answering my question.
Amot, my apologies. I misunderstood your comment. I thought you meant that he was not viable in any districts. Since he obviously gained more than 15% in some districts, I assumed that by “viable” you meant “winning.” Now I realize that you meant “there is a district in which he was not viable.”
Obama needed 14.5 delegates to acquire the “majority of pledged delegates” mark. Appears he will be 1/2 a delegate short. Maybe he will be able to sneak out a delegate from Oregon in a few minutes.
According to the Obama website he needs 15 1/2
to have the majority of pledged delegates. We are not there yet ;(
Leah, his max for KY is 15, so OR will make him the winner. Much deserved for OR and all western states!
BTW does anyone know if in KY there are many provisional and absentees cast as practise? Obama needs 7-8% votes cast that way in CD3 to get 4th at-large!
If you look at the CNN numbers on our Tracker page, they have some strange numbers. They still have the old CA number, giving Obama an extra delegate. We’re sticking with GP estimates.
MSNBC just said that the Obama campaign has just now sent out an email saying that they have won the ‘majority’ of pledged delegates!
Obama needs 1626.5 to have a majority of the 3253 pledged delgates.. That is 14, which CNN is projecting he will get….
I can confirm the Obama email. I received it at 9:07 PM EDT. “We have won an absolute majority of all the delegates chosen by the people in this Democratic primary process.”
Counting the votes in Oregon is an open process so the campaign may have enough hard numbers to know they have won at least the 2 or 3 delegates they need there. Still it seems a little premature to me.
USA today has the % break-down by congressional district in Kentucky:
http://content.usatoday.com/
news/politics/election2008/
results.aspx?sp=ky&oi=p&rti=e
Our official numbers say he needs 14.5, not 14. He’s 1/2 vote short. Sen. Obama will just have to wait another 45 minutes.
CNN now 37-14
33-10 for NYT
my god…
I’m british..
I’m listening to Obama in Iowa…
I want to move to the US..
somebody stop me..
(you yanks are confused.. occasionally racist, occasionally stupid, mostly bloody inspriational.)
mumblin,
better proposal – get Obama in UK 🙂
Green Papers just posted 36-15 for Kentucky (actually 35-14 with two too close to call — the second district and at-large).
Cd2 is done job, GP usually have some little bit old numbers. But I agree at-large can change in Obama’s favor if provisionals and absentees in CD3 are a big number!
I’ve been out all night. Just getting caught up on KY.
Looks to me that Obama got p0wned in KY. I expected Clinton to win by 25-30% … she seems to have won by more than 35%. I thought we’d have a 33-18 split — it’s 37-14. To put that in perspective, she’s only won two states (CA, NY) with a bigger delegate plurality than the +23 she got in KY.
Obama has won five states by more than 23 (IL, GA, WA, VA, MN)
Let’s hope Oregon is better!
Amot – so where do you numbers differ from GP. GP says 36-15, CNN has 37-14
What do you have
first results from orgeon coming in…
61% obama / 39% clinton (16% reporting)
Mumblin,
Echo your thoughts!
Just imagine if ‘we’ could have a national leader like that!
It’s coming up 4:15 in the morning here and I just have to wait to see Oregon.
Not only has the Democratic Party got a nominee, but America should have a great President, and the world can again look toward America for leadership and inspiration.
I think Green Papers is giving too much of Jefferson County to CD2. I split the vote-by-county proportionally by number of precincts for the split counties, and my numbers differed from USA Today’s by a few hundred. I have Obama well below the cutoff for a second delegate.
Grr at Oregon not providing breakdown by district, and having impossible county/district lines.
For some reason GP is showing a 3/2 split in KY-02…
You are all following the CD numbers more closely than I. So the consensus is that CD2 should be 4-1 for Clinton, not 3-2?
it’s going to be close, but probably 4-1 in District 2 instead of the 3-2 that GP has
I am positive CD2 goes 1/4 100% in, Obama is about 28%, 2% short of the threshold!
Matt, I have posted Ky finals at 9.28PM posthere
As far as KY-02 goes, I used the NY Times as a source and I added up the counties and show Clinton with a 71.94% share not counting Jefferson. The breakpoint is 70% but does anyone have a source for figuring out which precincts of Jefferson are in KY-02?
Amot,
What source do you have for the portion of Jefferson county that’s in KY-02?
And I can explain GP’s fault – they use maths model and extrapolation not real data from the precincts. Better stick to USA Today!
Some early numbers on OR:
CD1: Obama 4(5), Clinton 2(3)
CD2: Obama 3, Clinton 2
CD3: Obama 5(6), Clinton 3(4)
CD4: Obama 4(5), Clinton 3
CD5: Obama 3(4), Clinton 2(3)
At-large: Obama 7(8), Clinton 4(5)
PLEOs: Obama 3(4), Clinton 2(3)
So far CD1 is 80% 4/3 Obama and 20% 5/2 Obama, CD4 looks like 60% 4/3 Obama and 40% 5/2 Obama, CD2 is secure, CD3 is very very probably 6/3 Obama, CD5 is likely even but can go 4/2 Obama when we know more results. At large 7/5 looks safe but PLEOs seem to be more like 4/2 instead of even split 3/3. Clinton is not winning CD. Obama won one in KY 🙂
Not sure what portion but according to KY Election Authority its only 12 precincts. There were 2,100 votes in the Congressional Primary for District 2 in Jefferson County, so unless Barack won 80% in those precincts, not sure it could move the vote from the rest of the District enough.
Thanks tmess2!
Amot is undoubtedly correct. GP should log on here to get the skinny.
I have been told that most early coming results favour Clinton so if 58% favors her I guess the final will be 60%+ Obama. Biggest Obama bastions have reported partially so there is more to come. Turnout is very high. I believe Obama will finish with 150-170K lead in popular vote and 22% margin. He will win 31-33 delegates for a net gain of 10-14!
Folks, let’s move to OR. On KY he only unclear thing is if they have provisionals and absentees in CD3. If they don’t or the number is small it is 14-37 split. Obama needs some 3000 votes to get an extra at-large. Please, if anyone knows about P&A tell us. Or search the net while i monitor OR for you 🙂
Based on analysis most likely outcome
CD1: Obama 4, Clinton 3
CD2: Obama 3, Clinton 2
CD3: Obama 6, Clinton 3
CD4: Obama 4, Clinton 3
CD5: Obama 3, Clinton 3
At-large: Obama 7, Clinton 5
PLEOs: Obama 4, Clinton 2
Total:31-21
Obama 60%
GP has updated their KY numbers to 37-14.
Amot,
Two comments on your OR analysis. 1) USA Today isn’t reporting ANY results for OR-03. I suspect that a 6-3 split is within reach, but there isn’t any evidence of that yet (unless you know something I don’t) 2) The six At Large delegates are ‘on the bubble’ right now. If Obama’s numbers don’t improve, Clinton could get a 3-3 split.
Matt,
I don’t know where else to ask you this question, but could you open up a thread for posters to speculate on changes and reforms to the Democratic primary season in 2012 and beyond?
Sure. But not today or tomorrow – as it might get lost in other news.
Matt,
Thanks! I’m interested in finding out what other people think. I’m also interested in having a chance to correct other people’s opinions 😉
District 3 is mostly Multinomah County and approximately half of Clackamas County. Both are about 40% in right now. In Multinomah, its approximately 74,000 to 40,000. In Clackamas, its about 17,000 to 15,000.
Paul,
CD3 is all but one big county plus a portion of a smaller one. The average should be 61%-62% just a drop over the threshold! You can make the prognosis from the county data in CC and OR election page 🙂
I ment CNN not CC 🙂
So long for now. Thanks for all of your info. I’ve GOT to go to bed. I’ll log on tomorrow to see if Obama gets over 58.33% in OR.
Paul, here it is:
CD gets 80% of Multhomah votes and 355 of Clackamas. Let us make extrapolation as is now:
Multhomah 51% in:
Obama 74810, Clinton 41761
Expected total:
Obama 146686, Clinton 81884
CD3 (80%):
Obama 117349, Clinton 65507
Clackamas 43% in:
Obama 17450, Clinton 15741
Expected total:
Obama 40581, Clinton 36606
CD3 (35%):
Obama 14203, Clinton 12812
Total CD3:
Obama 131552, Clinton 78319
Obama 62.68%, Clinton 37.32%
Threshold 6/3 – 61.11% (1% margin of error expected)
That is why I think CD3 will go 6/3 Obama
Amot:
See you are crunching the numbers I was just looking at the numbers myself and CD3 is looking 6-3.
PS Didn’t I assure you CD 2 would go 3-2 for Obama????
Do I know my CD or what?
JK – keep up the good work
the 5-4 in CD 3 and the possibility of going 5-2 in CD 4 based on U of Oregon students registering in Eugene rather than their home address turned out not to be enough….
I had CD2 goind 3:2 Obama in my very first projection 2 1/2 months ago 🙂 And I have always sticked to that!
I am pretty pleased with the results so far 🙂
And it looks like my 12.14AM prediction will come true. I could say CD3 made up two more delegates for Obama than I thought months ago (one in CD3 and one PLEO)…
Amot:
As usual you are right and I stand corrected, it was either Mike or jpsedona that had their calcs in CD2 going 3-2 for Clinton.
When I looked at the crosstabs for the polls that started coming out I challenged your numbers on two Districts (if I recall correctly) specifically 3 and 4 and said one of the two will get Obama one more …
Tonight it has apparantly come true and as you note that and the overall state numbers going up one more from the state convention will make another one delegate difference.
Time for me to head to bed after I check in on the open thread and see what Aunt Jean is up to….
U.S. needs a great leader as the whole world always looks up to it. Although I’m from another country, i strongly believe that BARACK OBAMA is the best candidate to become president.I have faith in him to bring true change in the U.S…….Please vote for him.
Oregon numbers look like 29-21 with two (CD 3 and a PLEO) still to be decided.
Both delegates are in Obama’s favor in the moment, but it is closer than I thought it will be so we have to wait until97%-98% are in
OK,
Finally some good news for Obama’s camp:
1. Grand county reported – won by Obama
2. Most pro-Clinton countries reported – so far 41.33% for Clinton
3. The rest are projected 40.63% Clinton, 59.37% Obama. Biggest to report are Lane (47% of the missing vote), Multnomah (18%) and Clackamas (20%).
4. Late Multnomah number came too strong for Obama and secured 6/3 split in CD3.
Summary:
CD3 – 6/3 Obama – 95% chance
PLEO – 4/3 Obama – 80% chance
How does that split the 52 total?
Is it 53 total now, 31/22?
There are 52 delegates in OR, split is 31/21!
I saw “PLEO – 4/3 Obama” a few posts up and thought maybe the allocation could change under heavy turnout. Guess not!
For a little Oregon update analysis, I threw together a diary at dailykos:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/21/16955/1218/385/495905
Colfer, it was a typo, thanks for finding it, 4/2 is the correct split
Amot,
Looks like your 12:14 am projection for OR was right on the money! Obama’s lead is very small in OR-03 and for PLEO and if things stay the way they are now, the breaks will go his way on both of them. That means, according to the way I evaluate it, that he got a net one delegate more than he “deserved”. Of course, Clinton got a net four advantage over what she deserved in KY.
Sometime I should do an assesment between delegates won and delegates “earned”. So far, Clinton has lucked out on the close breakpoints more than Obama has.
Of course, Clinton might get lucky in OR-03 and in the PLEO by the time all the votes are counted.
Once again, congrats on such good prognosticating!
This Tueasday has been really bad for Obama when it comes to breakpoints 🙁
But he made it in CD3 and PLEOs! The split is as projected 31/21 in his favor. KY was really shame. I think he should campaign a little bit there to get 4-5 more delegates. In both states he was less than 4% close to breakpoints in 5 splits that unfavored him. Clinton was not closer than 6% in any split except for CD3 and PLEOs in OR.
USA Today has called it 31/21
CNN still has 29/19