Friday, May 16, 2008
Morning update
WE’VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com
The Obama campaign is counting the Edwards pledged delegates. Sort of.
The RBC is going to seat some delegates from Florida and Michigan in some way, but it’s still unclear what the solution will be. And remember:
The committee is not bound to select the proposals offered and has authority to reinstate any number of delegates and divide them in any way. – AP
The NY Times has more on the RBC, noting that the co-chairmen, James Roosevelt Jr. and Alexis Herman, will only vote in case of a tie.
Posted by Matt at 9:30 AM 
What happens when there is a tie and the chairmen cast opposing votes?
Paul:
It is still a tie and the motion is defeated.
Awesome, thanks.
Was it Mark Halperin who called Henry Waxman Henry “Wexler”, or was it the original Obama memo?
Either way, sloppy!!
Question: What happens if Obama or Clinton reached 2025 BEFORE May 31…it is possible if enough Supers endorse…so what would happen then with the number to reach? Would that mean neither of them can go to the convention as the presumptive nominee?? Obama has a good chance of reaching 2025, Clinton needs too many delegates.
Just curious, and I can’t find the answer anywhere..yet?
Second question: What happens when a candidate reaches a majority, like the 1627 delegates?
Claudia in NB Canada
okay…clarification( my dog was whinning and it distracted me!)
I meant, would the contest pick up again with the higher numbers after May 31, if FL & MI get counted??
Claudia in NB Canada
Not “sort of” any more.
Sen. Obama web site has already counted SC and NH Edwards’ delegates and updated their NH & SC numbers accordingly.
Harold Ickes is a Clinton strategist AND a member of the DNC’s Rules and By-Laws Committee (RBC). The RBC voted last fall to NOT seat any state that violated the primary schedule. How did Mr. Ickes vote back then, and how will he vote on May 31?
I believe that Ickes voted NOT to seat the delegates last year. (Someone with quicker fingers than I will no doubt post a link soon…:-) As to how he’ll vote on May 31–he’s going to vote to get as much for Clinton as he can (there’s a link to that somewhere, too!)
Bioclyde – the best answer to your questions is that’s there’s nothing official about any delegate counts right now – no votes are cast until the convention itself. Delegate counts drive political activity – money flows or dries up, candidates drop out or don’t, and whatever else happens. If Obama declares victory on Tuesday because he’s reached some milestone, that’s only a political statement. I actually think the Clintons will push back saying the following “Obama himself has said he wants Florida and Michigan seated, and therefore, there’s no way he can the say that 2,025 is the number to win – its contradictory”. I think Obama’s words on Tuesday will be very specifically written, and it will be very interesting to see how they decide to play it.
HI Matt,
Thanks for the response. It’s what I thought. I think Obama wants to split the delegates, Clinton wants them all or most of them…it certainly will be interesting…and media will have a field day…now if only they could get the facts straight things would be ok
Claudia in NB Canada
Bioclyde,
As Matt has noted any numbers are flexible until the actual convention.
However, declaring victory puts pressure on the remaining undecided delegates to come on board. It also makes it more difficult for the RBC to change the rules in a way that would change who gets the nomination.
What is most likely to happen on Tuesday is that Senator Obama will claim victory in the “pledged” delegate count and say something like “the people have spoken” as to who the nominee should be. (Of course, that declaration is based on not counting delegates from Michigan and Florida — he is unlikely to reach that number until after the RBC meets.)
Clinton desperately wants to get the media to reject that way of declaring victory — which is why she keeps on using 2209 even though her campaign supported the original decision excluding Michigan and Florida. By keeping the race open, she allows the unpledged delegates to resist the pressure to support Obama.
Clinton’s problem is that many of the unpledged delegates don’t want to keep this campaign going. They also don’t want to be the ones deciding it (which is why they have resisted the calls by both campaigns to declare support). Once, however, Senator Obama has declared victory, they can declare their support for him as the nominee of the party without being the ones “deciding” the nominee — even though their votes are necessary to putting Senator Obama over the 2210 necessary to “clinch” the nomination beyond any dispute.
tmess2
I have a clearer picture now, and I did see the political angle to making a majority declaration. I think the goal for both candidates is to try and win, and at the same time not divide the party. The voters should be the number one priority, and although paty rules were broken, it needs to be worked out fairly.
There is one scenario that wasn’t included in the possible FL & Mi…keeping the same numbers used in #4, but giving Michigan 1/2 vote as well as Florida…if that is possible. This contest has to get settled BEFORE the convention..in my opinion as an objective outsider.
Thank you both for answering my questions.
Claudia in NB Canada