Tuesday, May 13, 2008
West Virginia Primary Results
WE’VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com
Today’s primary in West Virginia won’t be nearly as dramatic as last week’s Indiana primary. Hillary Clinton is expected to win the state by more than 20%. 28 delegates will be up for grabs. 18 delegates will be based on district results. 10 will be based on statewide results with 7 being at-large delegates and 3 being pledged PLEO’s (Green Papers)
Polls opened at 6:30AM Eastern and closed at 7:30PM.
| Delegates Left |
% Vote In | % Clinton | %Obama | Delegates Clinton | Delegates Obama | |
| West Virginia | 5 | 93% | 67% | 26% | 16 | 7 |
| Previously Pledged Delegates (GP) | 1425.5 | 1591.5 | ||||
| Total Pledged Delegates | 1441.5 | 1598.5 | ||||
| Superdelegate Endorsements | 270.5 | 283 | ||||
| Total Delegates |
1712 | 1881.5 | ||||
| Delegates Still Needed to Win Nomination | 313 | 143.5 |
7:30pm – Hillary Clinton has been projected the winner
9:30pm – John Edwards is pulling in 4-5% of the vote (actual numbers are hard to come by), which explains why Clinton+Obama only = ~93%”
Kentucky and Oregon are up next on May 20th.
Posted by Matt at 7:45 PM 
By as much as 20%? Thats funny… She could easily win by 40%. 35% is probably the smallest margin she will win by there. and she could make a run at 75% of the vote.
The recent polls have her anywhere from 29 to 43 points up.
Changed to expected to win by more than 20%
Thanks Travis
CHARLESTON, W.Va. (AP) – Governor Manchin is taking offense to an upcoming film that uses negative stereotypes of West Virginians.
The horror thriller “Shelter” is recruiting extras with unusual physical features for a scene in a West Virginia “holler.” Those scenes are scheduled to be shot starting Sunday in the Pittsburgh area.
The casting call says the film is looking for extras who are extraordinarily tall or short, those with unusual body shapes and unusual facial features, and even people with physical abnormalities.
Anyone care to work out what the probable delegate split will be if Clinton wins by (a)30%; (b)40%?
Obviously not nearly enough to keep her in the race either way, I’m just curious.
Jay…
Check out Slate’s delegaate calculator
30% Clinton win would net her 6
40% Clinton win would net her 12
50% Clinton win would net her 14
According to Green Papers, WV has three congressional districts, with 6 delegates each (= total 18 total district-level delegates). The real question is: can Obama reach 33% in any of the districts? It is possible that he might not even be able to reach the 15% threshold in the 3rd CD (which Wikipedia describes as one of the poorest districts in the US).
Assuming that he can’t reach 15% in the 3rd CD, but that he reaches 15-32% in the 1st and 2nd (the 1st is home to WVU, and the 2nd has the city of Charleston), we’d be looking at a Clinton/Obama split of 14/4 just from the district-level delegates…
Somebody please check to see if my math is right.
The key numbers are as follows:
Each of the Congressional Districts has 6 delegates, thus:
15% = 1 delegate
25% = 2 delegates
41.67% = 3 delegates
58.34% = 4 delegates
75% =5 delegates
85.1% = 6 delegates
There are 7 at-large delegates, thus roughly:
15% = 1 delegate
21.5% = 2 delegates
35.8% = 3 delegates
50.01% = 4 delegates
64.3% = 5 delegates
78.6% = 6 delegates
85.01% = 7 delegates.
There are 3 PLEO delegates, thus:
16.67% = 1 delegate
50.01% = 2 delegates
83.34% = 3 delegates
The last two polls put the numbers at Clinton leading 66-23 or 56-27. Assuming a 3-1 break in the undecideds in favor of Clinton that would work out to somewhere between a 75-25 and a 69-31 result. However, if you narrow the break to 3-2 among the undecideds, that would change the results to 72-28, and 67-33.
That means, probably 5-2 for the at-large and 2-1 for the PLEOs. Depending on the final number and the breakdown by Congressional District, somewhere between 12-6 and 15-3.
My hunch says a 10-12 delegate net for Senator Clinton.
Hillary will probably win by at least 20%; but don’t be surprised if the vote turns out 80-20 or even 75-25.
While nobody likes to lose, I think 63-37 would suit Obama’s campaign team just fine.
That overall number would give him a shot at splitting one district 3-3 while keeping the others at 4-2. It would also keep the at-large down to 4-3. The bottom line would be 17-11 or 18-10.
At 70-30, you would probably be looking at 4-2 across the board or maybe one 5-1 district. In other words a bottom line of 19-9 or 20-8.
Aren’t the Superdelegates supposed to be the same count as you have on the left table 270.5 for Clinton and 279 for Obama? I read 277 for Obama??
This is really interesting & educatiional…and exciting too. I can’t vote because I am a canadian, but I do think the USA and your President is important…our countries need good leaders…so maybe you guys could come here and help us elect one too??
Claudia in Canada
I think Obama doesn’t want small defeat. He wats to build a positive trend starting from WV. I mean lose WV by 40%, lose KY by 20% or less, win by 15-20% OR, lose 10% or less or win PR, win 10%-15% SD and MT.
If you check his WV visit you will probably find out he was campaigning in 1st and 3rd more than he was in 2nd. He wants 28-30% and 9 delegates, nothing more. He is focused on KY and OR. If someone asks why he can’t he win WV he will answer – well, she had Idaho!
I think Hillary had influence in WV and could ask them to move their voting date say 10th April and that could be decisive for her camapign. A sound victory is way too late now…
Some people in the Clinton staff are expecting between 80/20 and 90/10 !
Considering the buzz around HRC’s edge in WV, not keeping Obama under 30% would be a disapointment and anything over 75/25 a major victory.
And putting Obama under 20% would be very damaging for him. That’s probably the reason why he’s wearing a flag pin while playing pool.
I’ll make my prediction now. Clinton will get 18 delegates, and Obama 10 (2 each from WV-01 and WV-03, 3 from WV-02), 2 at large and 1 PLEO). Since Obama picked up 1 superdelegate on Sun, 4 yesterday and 4 today (Clinton picked up none) the total delegate take for the week will be 19-18 in favor of Obama. It will get worse for Clinton, of course, as the week goes on.
What the heck is going on in WV? Why are they soooooooooooooo sloooooooooooooowwwwwwwwwww?
Why are the percentages adding up to 100%?
Eric said…
Why are the percentages adding up to 100%?
See Note 9:30PM.
Eric,
I’m looking at the results from CNN. They show 30% reporting with 71,149 (64%) for Clinton and 31,868 (29%) for Obama. 64+29=93, so 7% of those voters are blanking their ballots, writing someone in, or voting for another listed candidate. When it comes to allocating delegates, only qualified votes are considered. In this case, qualified votes are votes for a viable candidate — that means a candidate with more than 15%. That would be votes for Clinton or Obama (who are the only viable candidates). When you consider that, the percentage breakdown is 69.07% for Clinton and 30.93% for Obama.
The important numbers are 18-9 Clinton and 64.29%. That is, Clinton will get 18 delegates as long as Obama doesn’t creep within 16.6% (he won’t come ANYWHERE close) and Obama will get 9 delegates as long as Clinton doesn’t stretch her lead past 50% (no chance of that). The entire primary comes down to 1 delegate. If Clinton gets 64.29% or more she gets the last delegate and wins the state 19-9. If Clinton gets less than 64.29%, Obama gets the last delegate and she wins 18-10.
Kinda anticlimactic isn’t it?
Edwards is still on the ballot. Unfortunately nobody had the foresight to include his totals.
Check out the NYT page for WV for a more detailed breakdown…
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/states/WV.html
They list Edwards, who’s currently getting 7% of the vote.
Can Edwards still pick up a pledged delegate in WV? Any possibility of that happening? Just curious.
Paul-
I’m not so sure about your numbers…it’s looking doubtful that Obama will be able to reach the 41.67% threshold to get 3 delegates in WV-02 or the 25% needed to get 2 delegates in WV-03…
Edwards needs to break 15% statewide or in a CD to get a delegate. Not happening state-wide, and I assume not in a CD either.
Is WV like IN or NC ? I mean : are the demographics changing dramatically from the first rural ballots to the late urban precincts ?
To me it looks like the 65-70% / 25-30% split is not improving in favor of Obama.
Are we heading for 20-8 ?
Dan,
You’re probably right. My estimate was optimistic. I no longer believe that he can get 41.67% in WV-02 — but he should be able to get 25% in WV-03. There are some scary numbers in 03, though. Clinton has 78% in McDowell, 79% in Wyoming, 79% in Lincoln, 80% in Boone, 84% in Logan, and 85% in Mingo.
Obama’s “good” counties in 03 are Monroe (only 63% for Hillary) and Greenbrier (she’s down to a measly 57% there!)
I think he’ll get the 25%, but it might be tough.
My current estimate is Clinton 19, Obama 9. (Which means she’ll be up 1 for the week!!)
As of 10:30 pm EDT, USA Today is reporting:
Statewide
(Candidate, raw vote, % and delegates won):
Clinton 128,667 65 16
Obama 54,898 28 7
Edwards 14,275 7 0
CD-1:
Clinton 55,205 64 4
Obama 24,257 28 2
Edwards 6,688 8 0
CD-2:
Clinton 37,229 61 3
Obama 20,151 33 1
Edwards 3,913 6 0
CD-3:
Clinton 36,233 72 3
Obama 10,490 21 1
Edwards 3,674 7 0
At Large:
Clinton 128,667 65 4
Obama 54,898 28 2
Edwards 14,275 7 0
PLEO:
Clinton 128,667 65 2
Obama 54,898 28 1
Edwards 14,275 7 0
So with 5 to be determined, the worst for Obama looks like 7-21, could be 9-19, but more likely 8-20.
I had been predicting a 9-19 split for several weeks. Since I don’t know that much about the demos of WV, I won’t argue a one or two delegate switch in that state.
Mike
Mike,
I didn’t believe Clinton could take more than 75% in WV-03, but I’m getting worried now. My 18-10 estimate was hopelessly optimistic — 19-9 is the BEST he can do and if she surpasses 75% in 03 it will be 20-8.
Obama is getting his head handed to him. Those WV voters aren’t too thrilled with him!
Paul,
Not sure of the outstanding precincts (USAToday doesn’t indicate) but here’s the current info for CD-3 at the time I post this:
District 3
Clinton 52,371 72 3
Obama 14,891 21 1
Edwards 5,259 7 0
* Updated: 05/13/2008 11:00 PM
* 58% of precincts
You all probably know this, but remember that when assigning delegates, you have to throw away the Edwards votes. They are irrelevant for delegate allocation purposes.
Mike,
You’re ahead of me. (post the link where you’re getting your figures). My last count in WV-03 was 50417 Clinton 14214 Obama. Edwards’ votes aren’t qualified, so we can ignore them. That gives Clinton 78.01% and Obama 21.99%. It’s not looking good at all.
HRC will also be up for one week in the popular vote… including FL and MI.
She’s already almost wolfed down Obama’s 100k vote edge after 72% of the total (Obama still ahead but by less than 5000 which are likely to melt away pretty soon –
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008).
I’m satisfied that Clinton will get 20. My count shows her with 77.02% of WV-03 and the counties that still have votes to report don’t give Obama any reason for optimism.
I’ll go to bed now.
Paul,
The link to the USAToday election results page is:
http://content.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/results.aspx?sp=wv
TinyURL: http://tinyurl.com/56ckn6
Matt,
Yes, fully aware of the 15% threshold rule. The delegate totals USAToday is assigning is already won, won’t decrease, totals. Thus the CD-3 estimate was 1-3 Clinton, not projected to 2-4, or even 1-5 as it might turn out.
Mike
Right now with 81% in from West Virginia, it is looking like a 20-8 breakdown. The more interesting result for the Clinton arguments may be coming from the advisory primary in Nebraska.
As you may recall, Obama won the caucuses by a 2-1 margin. With 74% of the votes in Clinton and Obama are neck-and-neck at 48% each. To the extent that she wants to argue for a discount on the caucus results — winning the Texas primary while losing the caucus, being closer percentage-wise in the Washington advisory primary than in the Washington caucus, and now perhaps winning the Nebraska advisory primary after losing the Nebraska caucus will give her spinmeisters something else to argue with.
p.s. There were around 40,000 voters in the Nebraska caucus compared to 80,000 so far in the Nebraska primary.
West Virginia has spoken! Obama 8, Clinton 20. Unfortubately has was not able toget a second delegate from CD3 and there is no chance for altering the result since he is 3% behind teh breakpoint! Move on to the next quest…
Turnout in West Virginia was higher than expected, mostly in southern states. As I had said high turnout favored Clinton not only because she had a deeper pool of potential voters, but also because high turnout would help her cut into Obama’s lead in popular vote. Next week in OR Obama must win big enough to neutralize her lead in KY and go ahead in Scenario 6 popular vote (GP popular). It looks like WV likes losers. On the other hand some polls showed many West Virginians didn’t know Hillary is trailing by so many delegates that she can’t reach Obama and has to rely on supers to change the vote.
One final point:
If any of you wonder why Obama is up 9 pledged delegates compared to yesterday, after winning only 8 in WV, here is the answer – GP have moved the switch delegate from MD in Obama’s column!
Well, technically the supers wouldn’t be “changing the vote,” since they have their own vote. They aren’t required to vote for Obama simply because he’s taken more pledged delegates. Some serious arm twisting going on.
I think this is really scary that Obama just gave up on WV like this. What’s going to happen in the general election? This is a battleground state. He’s already on the defensive in the electoral college. Pennsylvania will be in play for the Republicans, and Hillary beat him there and in Ohio. I don’t see how he’s going to take Ohio or Florida in the general if he couldn’t take them in the primary. He didn’t win in New Mexico or Nevada either. WV is a warning sign. Hillary can win the general, Obama just doesn’t have it. He’ll take Washington, Minnesota, Illinois, Maryland, DC, Delaware, New York, Mass., Vermont, RI, HI, CT, OR and CA, but that’s about it, maybe WI and IA. Which states is he going to pick up that Dems didn’t win last time? He’s not going to take Ohio. Oh well, just have to take one for the team and settle for just having Congress.
denverdanny:
This may change, but from everything I hear right now, Obama isn’t going to worry about WV in the fall. Instead, he’s going to try doing better in the west and Midwest, as well as try to increase african american turnout in the south.
Interesting strategy, and it could work, but I think CNN said it best tonight. John King circled the area around WV, and showed how this area has decided the President. Not only WV, but the rural areas surrounding it. KY hasn’t voted yet, but I doubt Obama will make inroads in Eastern KY, so it’s an interesting scenario.
There are many ways to win GE without WV. Plus I don’t think Obama will lose OH, PA or MI. He has put all West and Midwest on play, he has VA and NC in play, I think he will even turn AK purple!
Why he lost big on purpose? Because he wants a positive trend from now on! When he lose next week in KY he will lose with half that margin and prove that he is competitive if he campaigns.
There may be many ways to win the GE without WV, but it certainly doesn’t help. The only states in play in the west are Nevada, NM and maybe Colorado. That’s it. I highly doubt NC is in play, Arkansas yes.
Obama should worry about WV, and delegates should worry about this because ithere’s pattern developing here. Obama isn’t appealing to people in these states. Clinton would give strength in the crucial states of Ohio, WV, MI and PA, as evidenced by the primaries. Obama on the other hand will be weak against McCain in these. And the talk about choosing a VP from Ohio or Pennsylvania in order to try and boost Obama’s appeal in these states, that’s a bad sign too.
Superdelegates are already ignoring WV, 2 have already declared for Obama today!
With all due respect, neither Clinton nor Obama will get West Virginia in a close election. While President Clinton won West Virginia in the 1990s, both of his wins were by sizable margins.
I know a lot of the talking heads are saying that no Democrat has won without winning West Virginia in the past 100 years. However, they said the same thing about Texas until Bill Clinton won in 1992 without winning Texas.
tmess2, second!
I think WV has too many racists and too many sexists to get blue in November. And since Clinton won obviously the number of sexists is less than the number of racists! Bun neither of them can win the state in November. Maybe Democrats often win WV in their run for the WH, but WV never had to vote for woman or AA. If their primary was in January the winner would be… John Edwards!
denverdanny-
Obama did not ignore West Virginia. True he did not spend much time there but he has a VERY ACTIVE ground game which will pay off big time in November. Why do you think these primaries are getting such a massive turnout? First step is getting voters to turnout. He’ll be back. Remember, only Hillary gets credit right now Bill and Chelsea show up. Let’s see if the Clinton’s honor their word and campaign actively for the nominee in the fall. I think they will. Maybe Chelsea is giving some serious thought to a future in politics. I can’t help but think her parents would really rather see her in the family business over Wall Street hedgies.
Clinton really showed me something in WV-03. Obama got p0wned! I expected he’d lose, I expected he’d lose badly, but I didn’t expect he’d lose by 56 points! Yuck! Obama got more than 25% of the qualified vote in only four counties (Raleigh, Pocahontas, Greenbrier, Cabel). Clinton’s best county was Mingo where she got 91.67% of the qualified vote. Communist dictators don’t even get results like that!
Before the results started coming in I thought he had a shot at getting 41.67% in WV-02. I wish! He ended up with 32.93% (I obviously took too many happy pills in the morning). I was also hoping he’d get 35.71% statewide — he got 27.71%. Bad night for Obama!
Denver Danny,
You asked: Which states is he going to pick up that Dems didn’t win last time? If you look at This very interesting ‘site, you’ll see that, as of today, Obama is poised to win every state that Gore won PLUS Nevada and Colorado. That would give him a 274-264 edge over McCain. He’s close in Ohio and if he carries that he’ll have a big electoral plurality.
Paul, thanks for the link to that election projection site. The thing to remember is that things can really change from now til November. Dukakis had a strong lead on Bush early on before allowing himself to be painted a certain way by the media and Republican machine. Also, using the link that you provided you can see how well Clinton does in Ohio, Penn and WV, along with Florida.
Check out this column by Maureen Dowd in the Times.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/14/opinion/14dowd-1.html?_r=2&hp&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
Every vote Obama can get in the primary is a vote in the general, and he shouldn’t be blowing off convincing voters he right or rather dispelling fears about his candidacy.