Friday, June 20, 2008
General Election Tracker – June 20
WE’VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com
This is the DemConWatch General Election Tracker, a summary of the best election projections on the web. We will be introducing our Senate tracker over the weekend, and the House tracker later this month.
Update 6/20: DCW Obama Index (explanation below): 298 304 (was 295), the first time the Index has moved over 300. (Calculation error)
First, by popular demand, we added RealClearPolitics, and, we also removed NPR, as they weren’t updating their projection.
Second, we saw more major movement for Obama, highlighted by two projections moving Alaska, yes Alaska, to Tossup, one projection moving Georgia to Tossup, two projections moving New Hampshire to Solid Obama, and other movement.
What is the Obama Index? The Overall DCW Obama Index is just a straight average of the Obama Index for each projection. What is the Obama Index for each projection? For all projections other than FiveThirtyEight, the Obama Index gives Obama 100% of the Electoral Votes (EVs) in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, and 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean. (And obviously 0% of the Solid McCain states). For FiveThirtyEight, we use his overall estimate of Obama’s EVs. (See below for how we determine FiveThirtyEight’s state projections).
Map showing consensus of sources. This table will show a state Blue or Red if a majority of the sources show it Leaning or Solid for that candidate. Changes: New Hampshire moves from Tossup to Obama, and North Carolina moves from McCain to Tossup.
<p><strong>><a href=’http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/’>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> – Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>
Unanimous solid states, not shown in the table below:
Solid Obama: CA, DC, HI, IL, MD, NY, RI, VT – 131 EVs. (Note, newly added RCP has CA as Obama-Lean. For now, I’m not adding CA to the table – we’ll see if RCP stays at this projection)
Solid McCain: AL, ID, KY (added), OK, UT, WY – 36 EVs
The sources are sorted by each projections Obama Index. The states are sorted by the number of electoral votes.
| DCW General Election Tracker | |||||||||||
| State | EVs | 538.com | Elect. Proj. | EV. com |
Open Left | RCP | RM | CNN | NBC | FHQ | …. |
| Date | 6/20 | 6/18 | 6/20 | 6/20 | 6/20 | 6/20 | 6/17 | 6/5 | 6/18 | ||
| Obama (O) | 190 | 161 | 193 | 169 | 91 | 200 | 153 | 153 | 153 | ||
| Obama-Lean (OL) | 103 | 123 | 42 | 107 | 147 | 84 | 58 | 47 | 54 | ||
| Tossup (T) | 99 | 80 | 147 | 91 | 137 | 14 | 133 | 138 | 129 | ||
| McCain-Lean (ML) | 110 | 55 | 51 | 46 | 67 | 66 | 69 | 84 | 56 | ||
| McCain (M) | 33 | 119 | 105 | 125 | 96 | 174 | 125 | 116 | 146 | ||
| Obama Total | 293 | 284 | 235 | 276 | 238 | 284 | 211 | 200 | 207 | ||
| McCain Total | 143 | 174 | 156 | 171 | 163 | 240 | 194 | 200 | 202 | ||
| Obama Index | 344 | 310 | 310 | 309 | 291 | 287 | 280 | 276 | 272 | ||
| Texas | 34 | ML | M | M | M | ML | M | M | M | M | |
| Florida | 27 | T | T | T | T | T | ML | T | T | ML | |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | OL | OL | O | OL | OL | OL | OL | T | T | |
| Ohio | 20 | OL | OL | T | OL | T | OL | T | T | T | |
| Michigan | 17 | OL | OL | T | T | T | OL | T | T | T | |
| Georgia | 15 | ML | M | T | ML | ML | M | ML | ML | M | |
| New Jersey | 15 | O | OL | OL | OL | OL | O | OL | OL | OL | |
| N. Carolina | 15 | T | T | T | T | T | ML | ML | ML | ML | |
| Virginia | 13 | T | T | T | T | T | ML | T | T | T | |
| Massachusetts | 12 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | OL | |
| Indiana | 11 | T | M | ML | ML | T | M | ML | ML | T | |
| Missouri | 11 | T | T | T | T | T | ML | T | ML | T | |
| Tennessee | 11 | ML | ML | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Washington | 11 | O | O | O | O | OL | O | OL | OL | O | |
| Arizona | 10 | ML | ML | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Minnesota | 10 | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | O | T | OL | OL | |
| Wisconsin | 10 | OL | OL | O | OL | OL | OL | T | T | T | |
| Colorado | 9 | OL | T | T | OL | T | T | T | T | T | |
| Louisiana | 9 | ML | ML | ML | M | ML | M | ML | ML | M | |
| Kentucky | 8 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| S. Carolina | 8 | ML | ML | ML | ML | M | M | M | M | ML | |
| Conn. | 7 | O | OL | T | O | OL | O | O | O | O | |
| Iowa | 7 | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | T | T | OL | |
| Oregon | 7 | O | OL | OL | OL | OL | O | OL | OL | OL | |
| Arkansas | 6 | ML | ML | ML | M | M | M | ML | ML | M | |
| Kansas | 6 | ML | M | M | ML | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Mississippi | 6 | ML | ML | ML | M | ML | M | M | ML | M | |
| Nebraska | 5 | ML | M | M | M | M | M | M | ML | M | |
| Nevada | 5 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | |
| New Mexico | 5 | OL | OL | T | OL | T | OL | ML | T | T | |
| W. Virginia | 5 | T | ML | ML | M | M | M | ML | M | M | |
| Maine | 4 | O | O | O | O | OL | O | OL | OL | O | |
| NH | 4 | OL | OL | O | O | T | OL | T | T | T | |
| Alaska | 3 | T | M | T | ML | M | M | M | M | ML | |
| Delaware | 3 | O | O | OL | OL | O | O | O | O | OL | |
| Montana | 3 | T | M | ML | ML | ML | M | ML | ML | ML | |
| N. Dakota | 3 | T | M | ML | T | M | M | M | ML | T | |
| S. Dakota | 3 | T | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| 538.com | Elect. Proj. | EV. com |
Open Left | RCP | RM | CNN | NBC | FHQ | …. | ||
Notes:
538 – FiveThirtyEight
Elect. Proj. – Election Projection
EV.com – Electoral-Vote.com
RM – Rasmussen
RCP – RealClearPolitics
Here are the states that span 3 categories.
- Alaska (NEW): Two projections amazingly move Alaska to Tossup.
- Connecticut: Only Electoral-vote.com having it as a toss-up – that likely won’t last. The only poll in the last 3 months showed Obama at +3 in late May.
- Georgia: (NEW): Electoral-Vote.com moves it to Tossup, based on the InsiderAdvantage poll
- Indiana: Three sources have it as a toss-up, but 2 sources have it as Strong McCain. If Obama can keep this state in McCain-Lean, that’s a good sign in a state that Kerry lost by 21%.
- Minnesota: With Survey USA just out with a poll showing Obama only up by 1, CNN’s projection of a Tossup doesn’t look like as much of an outlier.
- New Hampshire: Two projections move this former? battleground state to Obama-Strong.
- New Mexico: Four projections have it as Obama-Lean, CNN has it at McCain-Lean. There hasn’t been a poll here since mid-May.
- North Dakota – Two have it as tossup – that won’t last. Or will it? There hasn’t been a state poll in ND since April.
- South Dakota (NEW): 538 moves it to Tossup.
- West Virginia (NEW): 538 moves it to Tossup.
- Wisconsin (NEW): Electoral-Vote.com is the first to move this former battleground state to Obama-Strong.
We’re purposely ignoring Maine and Nebraska CD splits for now to keep things simple. We’ll add them in later if we need to.
The Obama Index gives Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for them, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, and 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean.
FiveThirtyEight state projections determined from state winning percentage (>90%: Strong, 65-90%: Lean, 50-65%: Tossup). Overall number based on FiveThirtyEight simulation. giving McCain a 1 pt lead. It’s only one poll…
Posted by Matt at 11:22 PM 
General Election Tracker – June 202008-06-20T23:22:00-04:00MattGeneral Election|Presidential Forecast|