It’s time to close the books on the last half of September with a summary of those 2 weeks.
There was a huge amount of polling data on many fronts.
GOP Nomination – national (15-30.09.2015):
1.) Morning Consult, released 16.09.2015: Trump +16
2.) The Economist/YouGov, released 17.09.2015: Trump +16
3.) Ipsos/Reuters, released 17.09.2015: Trump +17 (among RRV and IRV, R leaning), Trump +21 (among RRV only), and in a three way race, Margin: Trump +9 (among RRV and IRV, R leaning), Trump +13 (among RRV only)
4.) Gravis (R) / OAN, released 18.09.2015: TIE (Trump/Fiorina)
5.) Morning Consult, released 18.09.2015: Trump +24
6.) IPSOS/Reuters, released 20.09.2015: Trump +24.9
7.) NBC/Survey Monkey, released 20.09.2015: Trump +15
8.) Zogby Analytics, released 21.09.2015: Trump +20
9.) Morning Consult, released 21.09.2015: Trump +20
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10.) Fox News, released 23.09.2015: Trump +12
11.) Bloomberg/Selzer, released 24.09.2015: Trump +5
12.) Quinnipiac, released 24.09.2015: Trump +8
13.) IPSOS/Reuters, released 26.09.2015: Trump +14 (All), +12 (GOP RV only), +15 (IRV), and in a three way race, Trump +6 (All), +2 (GOP RV only), +11 (IRV)
14.) NBC/ WSJ poll, released 27.09.2015: Trump +1
15.) Suffolk/USA Today, released 30.09.2015: Trump +10.1
16.) Morning Consult, released 30.09.2015: Trump +15
GOP Nomination – State polling
Arizona:
MBQF Consulting, released 16.09.2015: Trump +8.6
Florida:
Florida Atlantic University (FAU), released 22.09.2015: Trump +12.3 (over Rubio)
Georgia:
Landmark Communications / Rosetta Stone, released 26.09.2015: Trump +12.9
Iowa:
PPP (D), released 22.09.2015: Trump +7 (also some theoretical 2-way polling)
Michigan:
Marketing Research Group (MRG), released 16.09.2015: Carson +2
New Hampshire:
WBUR Poll, released 16.09.2015: Trump +4
Voter Gravity (touchtone flash-poll), released 18.09.2015: Fiorina +4
CNN/UNH/WMUR, released 24.09.2015: Trump +10 (over Fiorina)
North Carolina:
Elon University, released 26.09.2015; Trump +0.6 (statistical tie with Carson)
PPP (D), released 29.09.2015: Trump +5 (also some theoretical 2-way polling)
Texas:
Texas Lyceum Poll, released 30.09.2015: Trump +5 (over Cruz)
Utah:
Dan Jones and Associates, released 22.09.2015: Carson +6
In national polling, you can see a huge shift in margin between September week 3 and September week 4, and in each of those weeks, 2 or more pollsters posted essentially the same margin, for instance, Morning Consult, YouGov and Ipsos/Reuters, all with Trump +16/+17 within just one day or so of each other. There is no doubt that Trump’s margin, although he is still leading, was greatly reduced in week 4. In state polling, Trump won most of the polling, except in Michigan, one poll in New Hampshire and a poll in Utah. This is the second time in one month that we have seen a poll from Utah, which is a very, very rare occurence.
1.) Morning Consult, released 16.09.2015: Clinton +30
2.) The Economist/YouGov, released 17.09.2015: Clinton +19
3.) Ipsos/Reuters, released 17.09.2015: Clinton +17 (DRV + IRV, D-leaning), Clinton +21 (DRV only), and in a three-way race, Clinton +13 (DRV + IRV, D-leaning), Clinton +18 (DRV only)
4.) IPSOS/Reuters, released 20.09.2015: Clinton +22.2
5.) CNN/ORC, released 21.09.2015: Clinton +18 (with Biden in the mix), Clinton +29 (without Biden)
6.) NBC / Survey Monkey, released 21.09.2015: Clinton +13
7.) Morning Consult, released 21.09.2015: Clinton +21
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8.) Bloomberg/Selzer, released 23.09.2015: Clinton +8
9.) Fox News, released 23.09.2015: Clinton +14
10.) Zogby Analytics, released 23.09.2015; Clinton +26 (with Biden in the mix), Clinton +28 (without Biden)
11.) Quinnipiac, released 24.09.2015: Clinton +18 (with Biden in the mix), Clinton +23 (without Biden)
12.) IPSOS/Reuters, released 26.09.2015: Clinton +9 (ALL), +10 (DRV), TIE (IRV), and in a three-way race, Clinton +7 (ALL), +8 (DRV), +1 (IRV)
13.) NBC/WSJ, released 28.09.2015: Clinton +7 (with Biden in the mix), +15 (without Biden in the mix)
14.) Morning Consult, released 30.09.2015: Clinton +21
DEM nomination – state polling
Florida:
Florida Atlantic University (FAU), released 22.09.2015: Clinton +43.6
Iowa:
PPP (D), released 22.09.2015: Clinton +21
Michigan:
Market Research Group – MRG – (R), released 18.09.2015: Clinton +19
New Hampshire:
WBUR poll, released 16.09.2015: Sanders +4
CNN/WMUR, released 24.09.2015: Sanders +16
North Carolina:
Elon University, released 26.09.2015; Clinton +20.4
PPP (D), released 29.09.2015: Clinton +7 (with Biden in the mix), +28 (without Biden in the mix)
Texas:
Texas Lyceum Poll, released 30.09.2015: Clinton +12
Utah:
Dan Jones and Associates, released 22.09.2015: Sanders +6 (over Biden, Clinton in 3rd place)
Similar to the GOP nomination polling at the national level, we also saw a narrowing of the margin for Clinton September week 4 over week 3, but not as much as with Trump and the GOP. In state polling, the two things that stand are are the huge difference in margin in NC with the PPP (D) poll, depending on whether or not Vice-President Biden is in the mix, and also Sander’s surprising lead in Utah, of all places.
DEM vs GOP polling, General Election – National:
1.) Morning Consult, released 16.09.2015: 5 Clinton vs. GOP matchups, she wins all five, with between +2 to +9
2.) Morning Consult, released 21.09.2015: 5 Clinton vs. GOP matchups, she wins all five, with between +4 to +13
3.) Fox News, released 23.09.2015: 1 Clinton vs. Trump matchup, Clinton wins (also a couple of push-poll questions in that poll)
4.) Quinnipiac, released 24.09.2015: 12 D vs. R matchups: Clinton loses 3, wins 1 / Biden ties 1, wins 3 / Sanders loses 2, ties 1, wins 1
5.) NBC/WSJ, released 28.09.2015: 9 D vs. R matchups: Clinton loses 2, wins 2 / Biden wins all 4 / Sanders wins 1
State polling –
Florida:
Florida Atlantic University (FAU), released 22.09.2015: 8 Clinton vs. GOP matchups, she wins 2, loses 6
Michigan:
Marketing Research Group – MRG – (R), released 18.09.2015: 3 Clinton vs. GOP matchups, she loses 2, wins 1
Mitchell Research / Fox 2, released 29.09.2015: 3 Clinton vs. GOP matchups, 1 win, 1 tie, 1 loss
New Hampshire:
CNN / WMUR9, released 28.09.2015: Clinton, Biden and Sanders vs. Trump. All three DEMS win by wide margins.
North Carolina:
Elon University, released 26.09.2015; 3 Clinton vs. GOP matchups, she wins 1, loses 2
PPP (D), released 29.09.2015: 16 D vs R matchups, Clinton loses all 8, Biden wins 1, ties 1, loses 2, Sanders loses all 4
Texas:
Texas Lyceum Poll, released 30.09.2015: 6 Clinton vs. GOP matchups, she loses 2 and WINS 4, but the toplines for all candidates are low (upper 20s, mid 30s)
Wisconsin:
Marquette Poll, released 29.09.2015: 3 Clinton vs. GOP matchups, she wins all three by wide margins.
There was also Senatorial/Gubernatorial polling worth looking at as well.
And the issues, FAV/UNFAV data is also most enlightening. According to WAPO, 83% of Latinos still disapprove of Donald Trump.
Now, those are just the margins, but at the links is a lot more data, often, internal data I thought was worth preserving for posterity.
