As noted earlier this year, the Republican nomination process is, in some ways, more complex than the Democratic nomination process because the Republican Party gives states more discretion in setting the rules for delegate allocation to candidates. The Democratic Party follows relatively uniform rules in which approximately two-thirds of the pledged delegates are proportionately allocated by the results in each Congressional District and one-third of the pledged delegates are proportionately allocated by the results state-wide with a 15% threshold for each. The complexity on the Democratic side is in figuring out the number of at-large delegates and in each district and working the math on the tipping points for winning a delegate. On the Republican side, each state has different rules. Yesterday, the Republican National Committee released a summary of the rules adopted by each state.
For the most part, the Republican rules allocate the delegates to the states (each state getting three per congressional district, and ten at-large delegates with states eligible to get additional at-large delegates based on past election results) and to the territories (with the rules designating how many delegates each territory get), but allow the state to award delegates to the candidates as they see fit. There are two primary limitations on the states. First, states holding their primaries (or binding caucuses) between March 1 and March 14 must use some form of proportional allocation. To qualify as proportional, these states may not set the minimum threshold for delegates above 20%, but can set a lower threshold. Additionally, these states can establish a threshold — no lower than 50% — at which a candidate wins all the delegates. Second, if a state does have a preference vote (whether in a primary election or as a straw poll at some level of the state’s caucus process), delegates must be awarded based on that preference with one major exception (discussed below). Unlike in the Democratic party, delegates are not just awarded based on the preference vote, they are bound by the preference vote and may not change their vote at the national convention (unless released by their candidate).
Given the general lack of rules, each state Republican party has a series of choices to make. First, do you use a caucus/convention system or do you use a primary to allocate delegates? Second, do you allocate delegates based solely on the state-wide result or do you also allocate based on congressional district results. Third, if your allocation occurs after March 14, do you use a proportional system or a winner-take-all system? Fourth, if you use proportional, what is the threshold for a candidate to receive delegates and do you have a threshold at which one candidate takes all of the delegates? Fifth, if you use a caucus/convention system, do you use a binding preference vote (and if so, when)? Sixth, if you use a primary, do you elect delegates directly without regard for preference?
The primary division is between caucus state and primary states. On the Republican side, 39 states and territories will use a primary system to award delegates, with the other 17 states and territories using a caucus/convention system.
Within the primary system, there are four major formats used by the states to award delegates, but there are four states that have unique rules. The major formats reflect the options created by the second and third question — winner-take-all vs proportional and state-wide vs. state and congressional district.
The easiest system to explain is winner-take-all. Whichever candidate finishes first gets all of that states/territories delegates. Eight states (Arizona, Delaware, Florida, Montana, Nebraska, New Jersey, Ohio, and South Dakota) have a winner-take-all system. Of course, three of these states only have a single congressional district. Of the four “big” states using winner-take-all, two (Florida and Ohio) are mid-March states with a favorite son on the ballot. For those two states, the reason for using winner-take-all is to benefit the home candidate, but with both Jeb Bush and Mario Rubio running, there is a chance that someone else might win Florida.
Next up in terms of simplicity is “winner-take-most” — states that award at-large delegates to the candidate that finishes first in the state and each congressional district delegates to the candidate that finishes first in that district. Six states (California, Indiana, Maryland, Missouri, South Carolina, and Wisconsin) use a winner-take-most system. Missouri’s system has a unique quirk, however. As noted above, while each state gets three delegates per congressional district and a certain number of state delegates, they can shuffle those delegates around in creating a system for awarding delegates. Missouri has opted to award five delegates to the winner in each congressional district. Missouri also has a provision by which it becomes a winner-take-all state if one candidate gets a majority.
The proportionality states are more complex to describe. The Republican rules allow the states to choose the threshold for qualifying for delegates and the threshold ranges from no threshold (beyond what it takes to actually win a delegate) to 20% and also allow states to establish a threshold at which they become winner-take-all with some states opting for a winner-take-all provision (most at 50%) and others not having a winner-take-all provision.
Eight states (Idaho, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oregon, Puerto Rico, and Vermont) use the state-wide results to award delegates. Of these states, three (Idaho, Puerto Rico, and Vermont) use a 20% threshold, but convert to winner-take-all at 50%. One (Michigan) uses a 15% threshold, but converts to winner-take-all at 50%. Three do not have any “winner” provision: Massachusetts (5% threshold), New Mexico (15% threshold), and Oregon (no threshold). The last state (New Hampshire) has a 10% threshold but awards the “extra” delegates to the state-wide winner (i.e. delegates that would have gone to candidates who did not reach 10% or left over after rounding out fractional delegates).
Thirteen states use some form of proportional by Congressional District. Six of these states (Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, New York, and Texas) are actually quasi-proportional at the Congressional District level, giving the winner 2 delegates and the runner-up 1 delegate (assuming that two candidates reach the threshold and no candidate gets a majority at the Congressional District level. One of these six states (Georgia) does have a winner-take-all provision if a candidate gets to 50% at the state level. the others simply convert to winner-take-most if a candidate reaches 50% in a given jurisdiction (i.e. 50% statewide gives all of the at-large delegates, 50% in congressional district give all of the congressional district delegates). Arkansas and Mississippi use a 15% threshold, and the other four use a 20% threshold. One state has a hybrid rule at the Congressional District level, using a 2-1 split if two candidates reach 20%, becoming winner-take-most if a candidate gets 66%, but giving top three candidates 1 delegate each if nobody reaches 20%. The other six states (Louisiana, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Washington) are truly proportional at the Congressional District level (i.e. if three candidates qualify, they each get 1 delegate). Of these six, two (Oklahoma and Washington) have a winner-take-most provision at 50% with 15% to qualify for delegates. The last four do not have a winner-take-all provision but use different thresholds: Louisiana (20% for statewide, no official threshold for congressional districts — effective 17%); North Carolina ( no threshold); Rhode Island (10%); and Virginia (no threshold). -take-most threshold.
Then there are the four states that do not fit within the four main categories. Connecticut uses a proportional system for its at-large delegates, but awards the Congressional delegates to the winner of the Congressional District unless a candidate gets 50% state-wide (in which case it becomes winner-take-all). The other three states (Illinois, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia) take advantage of a loophole in the Republican rules for binding delegates. While in most states, the results of the presidential preference vote binds the delegates, the rules permit an exception if the delegates are directly elected by the primary voters. Both Illinois and Pennsylvania award the at-large delegates winner-take-all, but directly elect the Congressional District Delegates. In Pennsylvania, the Congressional District delegates are unbound. In Illinois, the Congressional District delegates are bound to the candidate on whose behalf they ran (i.e. if you ran pledging that you were a Bush delegate, you are bound to Bush). West Virginia directly elects all of its delegates (other than RNC automatic delegates) and those delegates are bound by their pledges.
The caucus states break down into four essential systems: no preferential vote, winner-take-all, proportional by statewide-vote, and proportional by Congressional District vote.
Five states (American Samoa, Colorado, Guam, North Dakota, and Wyoming) will not take a preferential vote. Of these five states, Colorado will (like Illinois and West Virginia) bind delegates to any pledge that they made when they filed to run for delegate (i.e. if someone runs as a Cruz delegate, they are bound to Cruz).
Two territories (Northern Marianas Island and Virgin Islands) will use a winner-take-all system based on the preference vote at the territorial convention.
Eight states will allocate proportionately based on the statewide preference vote. Two states (Maine — 10% threshold and Utah 15% — threshold) become winner-take-all if a candidate gets 50% of the vote. The other six (Alaska — 13% threshold, D.C. — 15% threshold, Hawaii — 0% threshold, Iowa — 0% threshold, Kentucky — 5% threshold, and Nevada — 0% threshold) will allocate proportionately based on the statewide preference votes.
The last two state will award proportionately by congressional district vote. Kansas has a 10% threshold. Minnesota has a 10% threshold, but would become winner-take-all in the unlikely event that somebody got 85% of the vote statewide.
Given the number of candidates, it’s hard to say how the variety of rules will ultimately impact the primary. In February and March, the goal is to win enough states and enough delegates so that the money is there to compete in April. After April, winner-take-all and winner-take most favor the challenger trying to catch-up, and proportionality favors the front-runner (by making it difficult for the challenger to significantly close the gap — see 2008 Democratic primary).
