There was a TON of polling in the first half of October 2015 in all five major categories that I like to watch. Here are all the goodies:
Complete toplines and some internals for this category HERE.
National polling:
1.) IPSOS/Reuters, released 01.10.2015: Trump +18 (among RRV and IRV, R leaning), Trump +20 (among RRV only)
2.) Pew Research, released 02.10.2015: Trump +9
3.) IBD/TIPP, released 03.10.2015: Carson +7
4.) Gravis (R) / OAN, released 03.10.2015: Trump +17.5
5.) PPP (D), released 06.10.2015: Trump +10**
6.) Morning Consult, released 06.10.2015: Trump +18
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7.) IPSOS/Reuters, released 08.10.2015: Trump +18 (among RRV and IRV, R leaning), Trump +14 (among RRV only)
8.) Farleigh-Dickinson University Poll, released 08.10.2015: Trump +4
9.) CBS / NYT, released 11.10.2015: Trump +6
10.) Morning Consult, released 13.10.2015: Trump +14
11.) FOX NEWS, released 13.10.2015: Trump +1
12.) The Economist / YouGov, released 14.10.2015: Trump +10**
** that pollster also published theoretical two-way GOP nomination matches, worth a look.
That makes for 12 major polls in 15 days time. If we divide them up by week and make two averages, then in week 1, the average is Trump +10.9 and for week 2, the average is Trump +8.8. This is the first time since Trump surged to the lead in GOP national polling that he lost a poll, the IBD/Tipp poll, to Carson. In almost every national poll, Bush has slid to 4th, 5th, or 6th place, whereas Rubio’s numbers have risen.
State polling:
California:
The Field Poll, released 08.10.2015:
Connecticut:
Quinnipiac, released 13.10.2015:
Florida:
Florida Chamber Political Institute (FCPI), released 01.10.2015: Trump +11
Quinnipiac Swing-State poll, released 07.10.2016: Trump +12
Iowa:
Gravis (R) / OAN, released 02.10.2015: Trump +4.7
NBC/WSJ/Marist, released 04.10.2015: Trump +5
Basswood (R-Club for Growth), released 06.10.2015: Carson +5
Louisiana:
Clarus / WWL-TV, released 01.10.2015: Trump +4
Nevada:
CNN/ORC, released 14.10.2015: Trump +16
New Hampshire:
NBC/WSJ/Marist, released 04.10.2015: Trump +5
Gravis (R), released 09.10.2015: Trump +19
New Jersey:
Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, released 15.10.2015: Trump +19
Ohio:
Quinnipiac Swing-State poll, released 07.10.2016: Trump +5
Pennsylvania:
Mercyhurst University, released 06.10.2015: TIE (Trump/Carson)
Quinnipiac Swing-State poll, released 07.10.2016: Trump +6
PPP (D), released 13.10.2015: Trump +1**
South Carolina:
Gravis (R) / OAN, released 01.10.2015: Trump +12.7
CNN/ORC, released 14.10.2015: Trump +18
Virginia:
CNU (Christopher Newport University), released 12.10.2015: Trump +6
That makes for 18 state polls from 12 states. Trump won 16 of those 18 polls, Carson won 1 and there was one mathematical tie. In California, Iowa, Lousiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia, the margins are somewhat lean (single-digits)
Again, you can see the complete toplines and some internals for this category HERE.
You can see the complete toplines and some internals for this category HERE.
National polling:
1.) IPSOS/Reuters, released 01.10.2015: Clinton +10 (DRV + IRV, D-leaning), Clinton +19 (DRV only)
2.) USA TODAY / SUFFOLK, released 01.10.2015:
3.) Pew Research, released 02.10.2015: Clinton +21
4.) Gravis (R) / OAN, released 03.10.2015: Clinton +19
5.) PPP (D), released 06.10.2015:
6.) Morning Consult, released 06.10.2015: Clinton +21
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7.) IPSOS/Reuters, released 08.10.2015: Clinton +9 (DRV + IRV, D-leaning), Clinton +17 (DRV only)
8.) Farleigh-Dickinson University Poll, released 08.10.2015: Clinton +22
9.) CBS / NYT, released 11.10.2015: Clinton +19
10.) Morning Consult, released 13.10.2015: Clinton +32
11.) The Economist / YouGov, released 14.10.2015: Clinton +25
Only one poll was released following the Democratic debate from 13 October, 2015, but the actual survey part of the poll took place BEFORE the debate. I am relatively sure that we will start seeing DEM nomination polling with numbers that reflect a survey group from entirely after the debate starting on Sunday or Monday.
As with the GOP nomination polls, I split them up into week 1 and week 2 and here are the averages: week 1 = Clinton +17.8, week 2 = Clinton +21.4. The double set of numbers that you see from the IPSOS/Reuters polling opens up a point to discuss: some polling numbers are based on RV only for a party, others are based on RV for that party plus IV who tend to lean toward that party, but that value is of course useless in a state that has closed primaries,for in those primaries, Independents cannot vote either R or D. So, I do think it is helpful that a polling organization like IPSOS/Reuters provides a double set of numbers.
State polling:
California:
Field Poll, released 07.10.2015 Clinton +9
Connecticut:
Quinnipiac, released 13.10.2015: Clinton +12
Florida:
Quinnipiac Swing-State poll, released 07.10.2016: Clinton +24
Iowa:
Gravis (R) / OAN, released 02.10.2015: Clinton +8.9
NBC/WSJ/Marist, released 04.10.2015: Clinton +5
Louisiana:
Clarus / WWL-TV, released 01.10.2015: Clinton +35
Maryland:
Groucher College, released 06.10.2015: Clinton +20
WAPO / University of Maryland, released 12.10.2015: Clinton +17
Nevada:
CNN/ORC, released 12.10.2015: Clinton +16
New Hampshire:
NBC/WSJ/Marist, released 04.10.2015: Sanders +14
Gravis (R), released 09.10.2015: Sanders +3
New Jersey:
Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, released 15.10.2015: Clinton +30
Ohio:
Quinnipiac Swing-State poll, released 07.10.2016: Clinton +19
Pennsylvania:
Quinnipiac Swing-State poll, released 07.10.2016: Clinton +11
PPP (D), released 13.10.2015: Clinton +18
South Carolina:
Gravis (R) / OAN, released 01.10.2015: Clinton +31
CNN/ORC, released 12.10.2015: Clinton +25 (+50 without Biden in the mix!)
Virginia:
CNU (Christopher Newport University), released 12.10.2015: Clinton +17
We see 18 polls from 12 states. Clinton wins 16 of 18 polls. She loses both polls in New Hampshire. We are currently dealing with what I call the “Biden Phenomenon” because, although the Vice-President has not yet announced whether he plans to run for President, many of these polls for the Democratic nomination provide double sets of numbers: one for the race with Biden in the mix, the other without Biden. Excepting the CNN poll in South Carolina, in the cases of double sets of numbers, I have only posted the margin that includes Biden in mix. In every single case, Clinton’s margin over Sanders rises. And in New Hampshire, without Biden in the mix, Sander’s margin over Clinton falls. So, there is now ample statistical evidence that should Vice-President Biden not enter the face, the majority of his supporters will move toward Clinton.
It is also no surprise to me to see that that great state of Maryland was polled, not just once, but twice, I suspect, to test the strength of Martin O’Malley, who does not do well: 2% in the Groucher poll, 4% in the WAPO poll. And Jim Webb only gets 5% in his home state of Virginia in the CNU poll.
A criticism that I have of both the D and R nomination polling is that, because a lot of it is attached to a larger polling group for D-vs-R matchups and such, the subgroup for R only or D only is so small that the MoE is sometimes as high as +/-6 or +/-7, which is just WAY too high for any poll.
Again, you can see the complete toplines and some internals for this category HERE.
You can see the complete toplines and some internals for this category HERE.
National polling:
Gravis (R) / OAN, released 03.10.2015: 14 Hillary vs. GOP matchups. She loses most of them. There are no undecideds recorded. OAN is associated with WND and the birther universe. Gravis claims to be independent, is however, a Republican outfit. Gravis publishes NO internals. It refuses to do so.
PPP (D), released 06.10.2015: 16 D-vs-R matchups: Hillary loses 2, ties 2 and wins 5. Her best showing is against Huckabee. Biden loses 1, wins 3, with his strongly showing against Trump. Sanders loses 3 but ties Trump.
Morning Consult, released 06.10.2015: Hillary loses 3, ties 1, wins 2.
Morning Consult, released 13.10.2015: Hillary loses 1, ties 1, wins 4.
There were no other national matchup polls between these two from the same pollster, so it is easy to compare the shift within those 7 days. See the main link above.
FOX NEWS, released 13.10.2015: 10 2-man matchups: Hillary loses 5, Biden wins 5. There are also ticket matchups, which you will see at the link. The partisan identification of this poll is extremely questionable.
State polling:
Connecticut:
Quinnipiac, released 13.10.2015
Florida:
Florida Chamber Political Institute (FCPI), released 01.10.2015: 1 Clinton win, 2 losses. Bush wins by +11 in his home-state.
Quinnipiac Swing-State poll, released 07.10.2016: 15 D-vs-R matchups. Hillary loses 2, wins 3, Sanders loses 4, wins 1, Biden wins all five. The common denominator is Trump, who loses to all three Democrats.
Iowa:
NBC/WSJ/Marist, released 05.10.2015: 6 D-vs-R matchups, Hillary loses all 3, Sanders loses 2, wins 1.
Louisiana:
Clarus / WWL-TV, released 01.10.2015: 3 Hillary vs. R matchups, she loses 2, wins 1. Bush wins by +18, Trump by +8, Jindal loses to Clinton.
New Hampshire:
NBC/WSJ/Marist, released 05.10.2015: 6 D-vs-R matchups, Hillary loses 2, wins 1, Sanders loses 1, wins 2.
North Carolina:
Civitas (R), released 09.10.2015: 6 Clinton vs. GOP matchups: she loses 4, but wins two: +2 over Cruz, +4 over Trump. Carson beats her by +10.
Ohio:
Quinnipiac Swing-State poll, released 07.10.2016: 15 D-vs-R matchups: both Sanders and Hillary win 1, lose 4 apiece. Biden wins 4, loses one. The common demominator again is Trump, who loses to all three, loses to Biden by 11 points.
Pennsylvania:
Quinnipiac Swing-State poll, released 07.10.2016: 15 D-vs-R matchups: both Sanders and Hillary win 1, lose 4 apiece. Biden wins 4, loses one. The common demominator again is Trump, who loses to all three, loses to Biden by 11 points.
PPP (D), released 15.10.2015: 18 V-vs-R matchups: Hillary loses 5,wins 5, Sanders loses all 4, Biden wins all 4.
Virginia:
CNU (Christopher Newport University), released 12.10.2015: 21 D-vs-R matchups (7 per D candidate): Hillary loses 4, ties 1, wins 2. Sanders loses 4, wins 3. Biden wins all seven. Over Trump it’s Clinton +8, Sanders +12, Biden +17
Across the board, Dr. Ben Carson (R-MI) does the best against the D candidates, followed by Carly Fiorina. Marco Rubio sometimes wins, sometimes loses, and is often not even polled. Where Ted Cruz is polled, he tends to lose, and badly. Trump is (most of the time) the common denominator for the D candidates: in traditionally Red states, or states that are battlegrounds, where the Ds are losing ground, they still beat Trump.
Again, you can see the complete toplines and some internals for this category HERE.
You can see the complete toplines and some internals for this category HERE.
There was polling for such in California, Connecticut, Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and. Pennsylvania,
Kentucky and Louisiana are the two states with a 2015 November General election and the polling in KY looks as if Republican Matt Bevin is losing. The KY GOP has also cut off funding his campaign. By all impressions, it kind of looks like the wheels are falling off his campaign and Jack Conway, who is very well known in KY (he lost to Rand Paul by a landslide in 2010 but ran a tough campaign) may just win. This is also not a huge surprise since the Governor’s mansion in KY is already in Democratic hands and Steve Beshear is immensely popular in the state. Independent candidate Curtis is also making Bevin’s life harder – for he comes from the Right and is getting around 5%.
In Louisiana, which does a jungle primary and then, if needed, a runoff, there is not doubt that no candidate is going to get to 50% and so, there WILL be a runoff. David Vitter, incumbent Republican Senator trying for the Governor’s mansion, is in serious trouble. You can see it at the link.
In California, if these numbers hold, since CA also does a jungle primary, it looks as if two Democrats will go against each other in the Senatorial.
In Pennsylvania, incumbent Republican Toomey looks to be in pretty good shape for re-election. Very, very rarely do Pennsylvanians throw first-term Senators out. This is a longstanding Keystone State tradition.
You can find all the goodies HERE.
Lots of numbers for President Obama’s approval/disapproval (national and state), also some congressional approval numbers.
Sometimes I have time to fill this rubrik up with lots of data, and sometimes, I just don’t have the time. October is one of those times where I just don’t have the time…
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So, as you can see, it’s been a bevy of polling in the last 15 days and the results are indeed very interesting to read.
The next polling “round-up” comes on 1 November, 2015.
I expect more polling from Kentucky and Louisiana, to be sure.
And I will be keeping an eye out to see what happens to the DEM nomination numbers, post-Debate no. 1.
-Stat
