There are some important marquee races going on for an off year, most importantly, the Kentucky Gubernatorial:

Here are the four polls from the Bluegrass State that came in within 14-days:

2015 Kentucky Gubernatorial:

Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R) – internal poll for the Bevin (R) campaign, released 16.10.2015:

500 LV, MoE = unknown (not listed), for this size, is usually +/-4.5 to +/5.0

Conway 44 / Bevin 41 / Curtis 11, margin = Conway +3

It should be noted that there are two other questions on the poll that could indicate a so-called push-poll. You will see the questions at the link. The question is whether or not the order of the data presented is also the order of the questions. If they came BEFORE the matchup question, then it is very likely a push-poll. If they came AFTER the matchups, then it really doesn’t matter much. This is the highest showing for Curtis that I have seen to-date. Third party candidates tend to peak some a couple of weeks before the election and then there numbers are usually less on election night. See: 2013 VA Gubernatorial.

Drew Curtis, the Independent 3rd party candidate, is running with his wife, Heather Curtis, for Governor and Lt. Governor as “citizen candidates”. He is the owner of Fark.com and truly lists no political affiliation at all.

Both Bevin and Conway have lost previous elections: Conway lost the 2010 senatorial against Republican Rand Paul by a landslide margin. Bevin primaried Mitch McConnell in the 2014 Republican senatorial primaries and lost to him by a landslide. Now, both are vying for the Governor’s mansion. The Kentucky GOP has stopped funding Bevin’s campaign.

Western Kentucky University “Big Red Poll”, released 26.10.2015:

700 LV, MoE = +/-3.5

Conway 45 / Bevin 40 / Curtis 7, margin = Conway +5

This internal explains why Conway is really demonstrably ahead:

Conway is winning in the 50-64 vote and winning big in the 65+ vote, usually a Republican demographic. Conway is getting 12% of the Republican vote, while Bevin is only getting 5% of the Democratic vote, and Conway is crushing Bevin in the female vote by +17.  These are statistics that President Obama never enjoyed in Presidential polling of this state.

SUSA, released 28.10.2015:

798 LV, MoE = +/-3.5

Conway 45 / Bevin 40 / Curtis 6, margin = Conway +5

Here are the internals:

Vox Populi (R), released 29.10.2015:

618 LV, MoE = +/-3.9

Conway 44 / Bevin 44 / Curtis 6, margin = TIE

So, the average of the 4 is: Conway +3.25

I suspect that one or two polls may come out today or even on election day.  It’s slight advantage: Conway, but this state is now a deep RED state and getting redder from Prez cycle to Prez cycle. The fact that such a terrible, chaotic Tea-Party candidate like Matt Bevin is even this close is kind of saddening. He is such an embarrassment that the KY GOP cut off funding for his race and stopped supporting him, and then jumped back in at the last moment.

BTW, Steve Beshear’s son, Andy, is on the ballot for AG and it is looking very good for him.

In Mississippi, it’s not even close:

2015 Mississippi Gubernatorial:

Mason/Dixon, released 26.10.2015:

625 LV, MoE = +/-4.0

Bryant (Inc) 66 / Gray 28 / O’Hare 1, margin = Bryant +38

The Louisiana runoff will be on November 20th and here is the first runoff poll:

2016 Louisiana Gubernatorial RUNOFF election:

Anzalone/Liszt/Grove (D), released 29.10.2015:

700 LV, MoE = +/-3.7

More data to come…