Clinton holds huge superdelegate lead

By Matt | Published November 16, 2015

If anybody is wondering why we’re not obsessing about superdelegates this cycle, here’s why:

The Associated Press contacted all 712 superdelegates in the past two weeks, and heard back from more than 80 percent. They were asked which candidate they plan to support at the convention next summer.

The results:

Clinton: 359.

Sanders: 8.

O’Malley: 2.

Uncommitted: 210.

The 712 superdelegates make up about 30 percent of the 2,382 delegates needed to clinch the Democratic nomination.

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2 thoughts on “Clinton holds huge superdelegate lead”

  1. Statistikhengst

    The article got on statistic wrong. It said that this was 30% of the delegates needed to clinch the nomination, having mistakenly thought that 2,382 was the total number of delegates. That is wrong. The total number of delegates at this time is: 4,764

    So, I did the math again, hope you don’t mind. Thank you very much for posting this, this is most enlightening news.

    http://www.wdam.com/story/30509105/ap-delegate-count-clinton-has-early-commanding-edge

    579 out of 712 Superdelegates responded (81.32% of all 2016 Superdelegates). Here are the results, with percentages calculated out of 712.

    Clinton: 359 (50.42%)
    Uncommitted: 210 (29.49%)
    Sanders: 8 (1.12%)
    O’Malley: 2 (0.28%)

    not listed (did not respond): 133 (18.68%)
    Due to rounding, 1/100th of a percent is missing, but y’all get the idea…

    Clinton’s 359 committed delegates make up 7.54% of all 4,764 delegates to the convention, and 15.07% of the 2,383 delegates needed to clinch the nomination. Those 359 Supers have almost exactly the entire delegate firepower as the states of Ohio / Pennsylvania put together or the states of Texas / Virginia put together (369 or 362 delegates, respectively). Either way, 359 would be the second highest possible batch of delegates to catch in one bag, after California’s 546 Delegates. THAT’S how big this catch is.

    So, the article got these statistics wrong. It also got the number needed to clinch the DEM nomination wrong. See: HERE.

    So, the first primary is not even here yet, but more than 1/2 of all Superdelegates have lined up behind Hillary, which means she is automatically 15% on her way to the nomination.

    Now, can superdelegates change sides? YES. Some did in 2008. But that is unlikely in a battle as lopsided as this one is. I also strongly suspect that a number of the Supers who did not respond, for whatever reason, may have been Biden supporters had he run and are currently on the fence and showing their dissatisfaction by simply saying nothing at this point in time.

    -Stat

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