January is a traditional time for looking ahead. The last year of a President’s second term also tends to focus political attention on what the next Administration might look like.
In some ways, the Democrats start this year in good shape, but, in other ways, the Democrats are looking at continuing serious problems. On the positive side, the Democratic presidential primary field is down to three national candidates. Depending on the results in the early states, the Democratic nominee should be decided by mid-March allowing the party to focus on November. Additionally, the economy looks to be in good shape.
The down side is two serious long-term problems facing the party. First, the Democratic Party needs to improve its messaging in rural areas. The Democratic decline in rural areas has, in many ways, been a reinforcing process. As we have fewer democratic lawmakers from rural areas, the natural tendency of lawmakers to focus on issues that matter to their districts has resulted in fewer Democratic ideas on how to improve rural life. In the absence of such ideas, Republicans have emphasized traditional values to bash Democratic candidates. The difference between Democrats pulling in 45% versus pulling in 35% has helped Republican efforts to draw lines that give Republicans control over many state legislatures in purple states which also gives them additional Congressional seats.
Second, the Democratic Party needs to get the message to voters that they need to show up for all elections, municipal, state, and congressional. It will matter less this year as voters will show up to vote for President, but getting Democratic ideas into law will require retaking the House and Senate. Stopping bad ideas will require retaking state legislatures.
Being in the minority in Congress points to another potential weakness for this year. If problems in other countries start to drag the U.S. economy down, this Congress will do nothing to bolster the economy, and the Democratic nominee will pay the price for any decline in the economy.
The Republican Party faces the opposite issues. With three weeks to go to Iowa, there are still twelve candidates running for President. Neither of the top two candidates are strong general election candidates. The Republican hopes depend upon whomever finishes third in Iowa becoming the consensus establishment candidate the following week in New Hampshire (quickly narrowing the field to three candidates). On the other hand, the Republicans are in strong shape to keep control of the U.S. House and state legislatures (for the reasons noted above). And if the economy starts to slide, they could take the White House and keep the Senate.
This year is already looking like a very significant term for the Supreme Court. We have already heard oral arguments on a significant redistricting issue and on affirmative action. We also know that the Supreme Court will hear cases on union dues for public employees, abortion, the contraception mandate in the health care law, and Puerto Rico’s legal status. The Supreme Court could also take a case on the President’s immigration policy.
The case on the immigration policy reflects another recurring issue in light of the difficulties of one party controlling the White House and Congress. In a perfect world, a President could push a policy change through Congress with legislation that clearly authorizes the proposed course of action. In the absence of legislative change, any policy change can only be implemented through the executive branch’s power to set enforcement priorities and to re-interpret gray areas of the law. The opponents of the changes, however, then get to argue that the changes are an improper end-run around the legislative process and that the re-interpretations of the law are not valid. We have already seen this in arguments about climate change (with the Supreme Court rejecting some of the regulations designed to address climate change). Ultimately, the courts will decide the validity of the new executive branch positions on immigration and gun control (if the Republicans do not gain control over the White House and reverse those policies).
In short, between the courts and the Republican side of the primary process, the next six months could prove to be very, very interesting. With the Democratic party looking at a calmer six months, the most important thing for the Democrats is the less glamorous work of simply putting together a plan and the machinery for the campaign cycle. As the primaries take place and the courts issue decisions, this site will be hear to talk about what these events mean to us as Democrats.
