11 thoughts on “GOP Delegate Counts”

1. tmess2 February 26, 2016 at 12:08 am

   While at the end of the day, one delegate may not matter, the Nevada results are a good example of how every vote matters. In the battle for the 30th delegate, it appears that Carson edged out Cruz by 20 votes, roughly one vote per county.
2. utopian indigent March 7, 2016 at 1:19 am

   Why do these delegate counts differ from the AP delegate counts everybody else are using (Trump 382,Cruz 300)? What is the actual delegate count going through to the convention then?
   1. Matt Post authorMarch 7, 2016 at 8:03 am

      if you provide a source for your AP count, then we can do a state-by-state compare and figure out the difference. We use Green Papers for our delegate numbers. (Link now added). I will note that there is some debate about 5 LA delegates, as the rules there are unclear, but don’t know if that’s the cause of any discrepancy.
      1. Matt Post authorMarch 7, 2016 at 4:03 pm

         See also Josh at http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2016/03/a-delegate-count-reconciliation-quickie.html. Everyone’s got a somewhat different count.
         1. utopian indigent March 8, 2016 at 7:29 am

            Good grief, how are these wildly divergent delegate counts going to be resolved before the GOP conference? A candidate could easily have 1237 delegates in reality while AP and others report 1220 of even 1205 at this rate. Who’s going to sort this out?
3. utopian indigent March 7, 2016 at 12:05 pm

   Hi Matt, that would be fantastic!! You’re the only one among all the websites who’s willing to react and fix this. Here’s a very popular count which says they base it on AP: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/republican_delegate_count.html.
   Here’s an independent guy who has another count which looks even “better” than yours (but sadly this means there’s even a third version of the totals): p://ian56.blogspot.com/2016/03/super-saturday-results-mean-its-now-2.html
   Note the big differences on Louisiana.

   I would be so grateful to have this sorted out. Nobody but you seem to be able, let alone willing, to get this right. There is a telling difference between the various versions of the delegate count, as much as 9 per candidate (before AP suddenly corrected Massachucetts overnight, the difference was even bigger.
4. utopian indigent March 7, 2016 at 12:08 pm

   That second version of the delegate count, copied incorrectly. Here it is again: http://ian56.blogspot.co.za/2016/03/super-saturday-results-mean-its-now-2.html
   He has now updated again, giving a difference as big as 11 per candidate! That could even swing the outcome of a brokered convention.
5. utopian indigent March 9, 2016 at 11:03 am

   I now agree with your delegate count, and AP has corrected all of their previous errors. So a lot of progress has been made; I just don’t know why it takes so long. However, now we have a new backlog on AP, this time a tidy and clean backlog: The 3 NRP delegates for the winner in each of Hawaii and Mississippi haven’t been allocated though the count is 100% complete. Therefore all the other major websites allocate 6 delegates less to Trump, than you have. Fox News broadcast with great glee that “Cruz is still less than 100 adrift” and people believe that. Meantime even a cursory glance would reveal that your count is correct, and Cruz is now 102 behind. Doesn’t that boil down to unethical journalism by Fox?
   Thanks for maintaining some sanity amidst this disgraceful business of (purposefully) miscounting delegates.
   1. Matt Post authorMarch 14, 2016 at 6:35 am

      It’s not purposeful. Some of it is stupidity, some of it is unclear rules, and some of it is people making different assumptions about those rules. I wouldn’t worry so much about the differences. Most of them get worked out over time, while some may not get resolved until the delegates actually vote. The campaigns likely also have their own counts, and they will make decisions based on those numbers, not on numbers from any specific media site.
      1. utopian indigent March 19, 2016 at 12:59 am

         No, actually, now the AP delegate count has gone completely bonkers or tries to push Cruz: The Cruz-Trump difference this morning is suddenly 24 delegates different from your/Green Paper count. I’ve written to everyone and on every forum but they don’t care.

         I think it’s intentional. It’s now swaying too much to one side to be coincidental.

         Please have a look: https://interactives.ap.org/2016/delegate-tracker/ Someone should do something.
6. utopian indigent March 10, 2016 at 6:42 am

   Oh no, this is getting so frustrating. Although I think your totals are correct, once again nobody is reporting those, the wrong version is on the news everywhere: Please have a look at the popular version of the delegate counts and compare: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/republican_delegate_count.html

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