The results are in, and Bernie Sanders had a decisive victory last night, besting Hillary Clinton 60%-38% with 89% of the vote counted. He won all age categories, income categories and he even won the women’s vote.
There are two big takeaways from this win. First was seen in the speeches given by the two candidates. Hillary Clinton used her time to replay her biography, and use the word “I” throughout her speech, explaining things she had done, and what she stood for. In contrast, Bernie Sanders used the word “we” over and over, and talked to the issues he was running on. Most notably, while Sanders spoke in terms of the need to undo income equality, to stop the 1% from buying elections, making college free, and shoring up Social Security, Clinton spoke in far more broad terms, like “fighting for women and girls”. It was a striking difference. The message difference is absolute: Sanders has a succinct message that is repeated, the campaign is completely on message at all times. Clinton has trouble with messaging, sticking to the experience model which did not serve her well in 2008. It should be noted that both took time to congratulate the other and showed great respect for the other candidate and his/her supporters. A level of decency and honour not seen on the GOP side.
The second takeaway can be seen in polling numbers. Sanders started from basically nothing and his numbers keep growing. Clinton’s numbers have a history of not going up. When she ran for Senate, she started with polling at 67% and that was her result in the election. When she ran for a second term, it was a similar set. She started with huge numbers in 2008 as the inevitable candidate, but once those numbers dropped they never recovered.
The challenge for the Clinton campaign is internal. The campaign needs to have tight messaging: it’s a major lesson from the Obama campaigns, which had a message of the week, and it never wavered. Having Madeline Albright say there is a “special place in hell” for women who do not support other women did not win friends and is off message for a campaign that needs to be inclusive. The campaign has money and organization and hopefully internal memory over what happened in the split between the campaign and outside consultants in 2008. If you see a major shake-up in the next week, and Bill Clinton angry on the trail, that internal memory needs a reboot.
Sanders challenge is external. He is now the first Jew to ever win a presidential primary. He will need to overcome Antisemitism as he reaches out to African-Americans and Hispanics, keeping his message inclusive as he introduces himself across the country. This is trickier than may appear.
It is now on to Nevada. This will be the first case of a caucus in a state that is not lily white. To win there, Clinton will need to learn the lessons of 2008 where she won the popular vote, but lost the delegates. For Sanders, it will be necessary to win over the large number of minority voters who have no idea who he is. It will be interesting. There will be a debate between the two of them later this week, and then the caucuses will begin at 11 a.m. next Saturday, the 20th. Then onto South Carolina the following Saturday.
We, as voters, come everyday closer to making our decision. Whichever side you choose, please show respect for the other side: WE ARE NOT THE GOP. While the candidates have differences, as both have said many times, either is a far better alternative to anything on the Republican side. And please, show your support for your candidate – make those contributions, make those calls, sign those petitions, and get your friends and families involved.
