The most common question I get is “Can Donald Trump win in November?” The answer is yes. This is my fifth rewrite of this post because I don’t seem able to get my head around it myself. Plus, I keep getting sidetracked by why he needs to be stopped. So let’s start with how he can win, and then on to how.

The Donald certainly has a path to victory. First, while this year is a year unlike any other in American electoral history, the stats say that the incumbent party does not hold the White House for a third term. Second, he has amassed more Republican primary votes than any other Republican, and the contests aren’t over yet. The corollary is that Republican turnout is up 64% so far, while Democratic turnout is down 17%.  There are also a lot of troubling signs relative to Trump’s match-ups with the Democrats. And most importantly, there’s the platform on which he’s run. 

Beltway pundits are all concerned about how well The Donald will be able to integrate with the Republican establishment as well as being able to espouse conservative values and issues. I think they’ve got it wrong – if they embraced him with open arms, it would turn more people against him then it would gain supporters. The people who support Donald have consistently said that they want someone from “the outside” who “tell it like it is” and is not connected with the party elite. The longer he remains “outside” the better it is for how tightly attached his supporters remain. Face it, there are candidates who represent a “brand” – say, a Conservative Republican or a Centrist Democrat. People understand what the candidates stand for, and what they’re buying. But Donald is that other type of candidate: a cult-of-personality candidate. His supporters care less what he says and stands for, and more for what he IS. His supporters would likely disengage if he suddenly started talking like Jeb Bush. While some of the party are aligning with Donald, there is great reticence on the part of many Senate and House Republican candidates to align with him. They say things like “Well, I’ll support the nominee, but I disagree with Donald Trump on building the wall.”

No doubt more Republicans have been engaged this year then in recent contests. Some of them were out there just for Donald Trump – lots of new voters can be attributed to his candidacy. In general elections, normally there are the party-line Republicans, the party-line Democrats, the few party changers, and the independents who make the difference, normally in the battleground states. This year is different. Some states that are considered solidly blue are at risk to the Democrats if the competitors are Donald and Hillary. That would be Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan at least, and possibly some other rust belt states. Granted, any Clinton on the ballot puts Arkansas in play. And because of the Hispanic views of Donald Trump, Georgia and Arizona may come into play. MAYBE. But it’s Pennsylvania and Ohio that are the main issue. A Democrat can’t win without one of the two, plus Florida (or both and not Florida). The Clinton campaign knows this is an issue and left the Pennsylvania primary staff in place and augmented it, and is staffing up in Wisconsin and Michigan.

Why would these blue states turn red? You need only look at the exit polls from West Virginia. Looking at two polls, Sanders voters would choose Trump over Clinton in numbers that are concerning. The same type of voters are the ones in the more rural areas of Wisconsin and Michigan that gave Bernie the primary win over Clinton. If they shift, and more Trump supporters come out of the woodwork, it’s a problem. In Kentucky, you can say that Hillary Clinton won by a nose over Bernie Sanders in some of the coal counties, but instead look at the total numbers of Republicans and Democrats in those counties, and then go back and look at ticket splitters over the past several elections.

I know what you’re thinking. Donald Trump has specious economic plans, his foreign policy is in violation of international law, he doesn’t understand the first Article of the US Constitution, and no one will elect him because they’ll give him the nuclear codes and if he miscalculates his meds, we’ll lose Iceland. Face it, you also believe that Climate Change is caused by humans, Darwinian evolution trumps Creationism, science is real, and we are a country based on laws emanating from the Constitution and not the Bible. Trump voters don’t see it that way.  Not even close.

It becomes a different ball game if Bernie Sanders is the Democratic nominee, his head-to-heads are much better against Donald than are Hillary’s, but the math doesn’t seem to make that possible unless the head-to-heads keep getting worse for Hillary and the Supers decide to move en masse. Personally, I’m not holding my breath.

So how do we stop Donald Trump?

It’s a simple plan, although a lot of ground work. Basically, you need to get 51% of your block to vote for a straight Democratic ticket. You then need to find someone on the next block to do the same thing. You get the idea. There has GOT to be ONE person on EVERY block in America who wants to stop Donald Trump.

The process starts now, and here’s how.

Step 1. Assess Your Block

Some of you live on blocks where there are reliable Democratic voters. You still need to check this year because there are people who will not vote for Hillary because they will not give up on Bernie. or because they see no objective difference between Donald and Hillary.  Saturday, I took Fiona for her annual exam. My vet had seen my Bernie sticker, and very kindly, and slightly hesitantly, asked me what I was going to do in November. My answer was clear “I’m a Democrat. I see a huge chasm between Donald and Hillary, and I will vote my party.” She was visibly relieved. So you actually don’t know where the support lies. Eventually, the Clinton campaign will know every house on every block in America – their systems are good. BUT – the Clinton campaign will not be able to win over voters the way individual neighbors can. You need to know, and sooner rather than later.

If you live on a Republican block, you may think that their all in for their party, but they may not be. So again, you need to know. There are people in America who have pulled every election lever for Republicans, and they cannot vote Trump.

How do you do this? There are number of ways. I recommend making a spreadsheet with the name, address and if you know it, phone number and email of everyone on your block. Keep that at home. Get a clipboard and go door to door. Ask people if they know for whom they will be voting in November. Go home and give people a 1 for either a strong “Hillary” or “The Democrat”, a 2 for a leaning “Hillary or “The Democrat”, a 3 for “I’m undecided”, a 4 for leaning Donald and a 5 for a strong Donald. Go home and fill out your spreadsheet.

If you’ve got a kid in school, send them around and make it a school project. If you don’t feel you can ask for whom people will be voting, ask them if they have a positive or negative impression of the the candidates — ALL the candidates, Presidential (and you could include Bernie as well as Gary Johnson who will likely get the Libertarian nomination, although their convention isn’t for another week), Senatorial (if applicable) and House.

A “Nice to Have” for this step is information on how often everyone votes. This information is easily available if you know who to ask. If you live near me, I can get you the information. If you live outside of the 6th District of Pennsylvania, let me know what you need and I can get it for you, or put you in touch with your local folks who have this data.

Step 2: Determine your Workload

Review your numbers – how many people will be strong for Hillary? Keep them on a list and remember to check with them in early September and again in early October to see if they’ll need an absentee ballot, or a ride to the polls, If the Clinton campaign is smart, and I’m not holding my breath, they’ll come around with voting plan postcards as the Obama team did so successfully in 2008 and 2012. If not, you can make your own,. It’s easy and fun.  Then, forget about those people for the summer.

Next, look at the 2’s. These are people you’ll need to move over. You can engage them in small conversations over the summer. Be very clear on why you are voting Democratic this year. And this will differ for people — perhaps you always vote Democratic. If you do, your arguments need to be issue-based and related to what the differences are between the two party platforms. (Yes, you’ll need to read the platforms and yes, I’ll post them in July when they’re published, And yes, I read every platform from every party every four years. You only  need to read two, and highlight things that matter to you.) Don’t try to win these folks over all at once: rather, small conversations, single issues.

Then, the 3’s. Here, you’re going to need to know all of Trump’s positions, and ask the people a single issue. For example, does a voter really want to build a wall? If so, do they understand how much it will cost to build and maintain, what the effects will be on the Border Patrol, and how there’s a legal issue involving the rivers that cross between the two countries? KNOW YOUR ISSUES. If they bring up something you don’t know, SAY you don’t know, and go find out. (Yes, you can contact me.)

After looking at the 1’s, 2’s and 3’s, do the math to determine whether your block will hit 51% if all of them vote. If so, forget the 4’s as an active part of your summer activities. If not, you’ll need to approach the 4’s. Never approach the 5’s — it’s a huge expenditure of time and your efforts are better spent elsewhere.

This brings us to the determination you’ll need to make about the Bernie-or-bust voters. They fall into two camps. The first is those people who committed to Bernie and will stay home, or vote for a third-party candidate or a write in. The second camp is those who will vote for Donald out of spite against the Democratic Party. Whether or not you work with them is a function of the state in which you live. For example, if you live in Texas or Massachusetts, you don’t care, because objectively, their votes won’t matter anyway. If you live in a swing state, their votes DO matter, and if you can win them over, that’s great. I’d hold them in abeyance until we see what Bernie does at the convention, and whether he is as conciliatory to the party as Hillary Clinton was in 2008.

If something incredible happens, such as Hillary picking Bernie as her running mate over, say, Julian Castro, it’s a whole different ball game. If Bernie is the human who puts Hillary’s name into nomination, again, new ball game. No matter what, if you’re following the plan, you’ll have your numbers before the convention and you’ll be able to go back and reassess in August.

Step 3: The Dog Days of August

If you have time or inclination in August, run voter registration drives. I’ll have posts up on this later in the season. They’re easy and fun. And important. If you’re on vacation, you can still register voters while you’re out of town. I never go anywhere without the ability to register voters at my destination. Admittedly, I’m obsessed about this because if you’re not registered, you can’t vote.

Another activity to consider is aligning with a local campaign. If there is a candidate, whether running for dog catcher, school board member, mayor, state rep and Senator, up through Congressional candidates and Senate candidate in whom you believe, get on board with him or her. You’ll be out meeting voters, and you’ll have the opportunity to talk values and issues and straight party voting. You’ll also have access to walk lists. It’s important work. No matter who wins in 2016, it’s not the end of the world: we’ll still need to build the bench.

Step 4: Labor Day Weekend and Beyond

This is the official start of the campaign in terms of getting people to be ready to work, commit, make voting plans, etc. August is usually quiet on the political front. People are recovering from the primaries (and when I say “people” I’m talking about voters, not candidates) but this is back to business.

You’re going to go back to your worklist and start working your voters. Remember the prime directive: you want to win your block. You want them committed and activated and they must all show up at the polls. This is when you need to make sure that if someone often travels for work, he/she has an absentee ballot. This is when you start moving 2’s and 3’s to 1’s. It’s also a good time to help others on their blocks. If you’ve read this far, you’re likely new to political organizing. (WELCOME!) So the initial work may have seemed overwhelming, but now you’ve set your base. You may even have activated people who will reach out to other blocks. But now, in addition to talking to your voters, expand your universe to your family and friends in other geographical areas. It’s a good idea to NOT do any politicking at work. Trust me on this one. However, get a Hillary tee shirt, or hat, and a bumper sticker. People will engage you, and you’ll have the opportunity to help get them to where we need them to be.

If you want, you can get involved with the Clinton campaign. They will field you, provide you with materials, and send you out where they believe the need is greatest.

But the bottom line is that you need to win your block. You need to get over that fear of “I don’t politick” and “I don’t go door to door” and all the rest. There is nothing more effective in a campaign then people talking to the people they know best and see on a regular basis.

My favourite political bumper sticker of all time comes from Louisiana. It was the 1991 gubernatorial race between Edwin Edwards and David Duke (yes, that David Duke). Edwards had been governor for three terms, and then did a term in the pokey. It was an ugly race. The bumper sticker, from the Edwards campaign said “Vote for the crook, it’s important.” And I don’t care if you think Hillary Clinton is a crook, a liar, a war hawk, unfriendly or anything else….she needs to win. It’s important. Get to work.