One of the advantages that the “incumbent” party has under the norms of American politics is getting to have your convention second.  (Depending upon how you count, this tradition has been followed either since 1936 or since 1956 — before 1936 Democrats tended to, but did not always go second).  When, as in this year, there is only a three-day gap between the two  conventions and the nominee of the out-party waits until the last second to announce his pick, that gives the nominee of the incumbent party a chance to finalize her pick without much media attention.

Both because Governor Mike Pence was not a major game-changing nominee and the start of the Republican convention has been less than optimal, Secretary Clinton is in a position to pick a running-mate whom she is comfortable with — both as a running-mate and as a person to whom she can delegate significant responsibility after the election.  In terms of potential nominees, the first tier of contenders are a group of senators.  For senators, Secretary Clinton needs to balance whom would make a good running mate versus whom the Democrats can afford to lose in the Senate.

The process for filling a Senate vacancy is controlled by state law.  The top contenders from the Senate appear to be Tim Kaine from Virginia, Elizabeth Warren from Massachusetts, Cory Booker from New Jersey, and Sherrod Brown from Ohio.  Starting with Virginia, currently the Democrats control the governor’s mansion in Virginia meaning that the initial replacement would be appointed by the Democratic governor.   In the other three states, the Republicans control the governor’s mansion meaning that the initial replacement would be named by the Republicans.  In Massachusetts, the special election to fill the vacancy must take place within 160 days (which can be unpredictable).   In New Jersey, the Governor may call a special election, but otherwise the temporary appointee would serve until the 2018 election.  In Ohio, the temporary appointee would serve until the 2018 election.  For Kaine, Warren, and Brown, there is the added fact that their terms would normally be up in 2018 anyhow.

Democratic Governors would normally be a fertile field for a V-P pick, but this year somewhat less so than normal.  Governor Andrew Cuomo is out because of the pesky provision in the Constitution barring saying that electors can’t vote for two candidates from their state.  If the election were close that might result in the Senate choosing between Cuomo and Pence as New York’s electors would have to vote for someone else for V.P.    The most viable (and potentially beneficial) of the governors would be Colorado’s John Hickenlooper.  He has gotten some mentions, but does not appear to be under serious consideration.   With Pennsylvania’s governor having health issues (but apparently treatable) and Virginia’s governor being too closely connected to the issues, the remaining Democratic governors are from states where either the ticket should be in good shape or the ticket has little chance of winning (unless the election is a landslide one way or the other).

There is always mention of cabinet members as potential picks.  However, the Hatch Act puts some burden on cabinet secretaries doing the type of tryout campaigning that seems to be part of the process today (as HUD Secretary Julian Castro learned).  If Castro is out, then the only cabinet member apparently under serious consideration is Tom Vilsack — the former Governor of Iowa.  As Iowa is traditionally a battle ground state and the Democrats typically start the race within thirty or forty electoral votes of 270, securing Iowa early would be a big step.  Whether after eight years in D.C. Vilsack can still help enough in Iowa is an open question.

From Congress, the potential candidates appear to be two Latino Congressman — Xavier Beccara of California and Joaquin Castro of Texas.  Representative Castro is Secretary Castro’s twin brother.  They are both 42.  They and Senator Booker are the only people under consideration who are less than fifty.  Currently, with Mike Pence being 57, this election is shaping up as having the oldest combined age of the four candidates running.  Giving the need of the Democratic ticket for younger voters, going with a ticket in which both candidates (and actually all four candidates) are older than President Obama does not seem like the best pick, even if it might be the safest pick.  Additionally, naming a Latino for V-P could help (when combined with Trump’s outrageous rhetoric) cement Latino voters as Democratic votes for the next generation.

Clinton’s problem is, in many ways, the exact opposite of Trump.  Where Trump had leading Republicans quickly pulling their name out of consideration, Clinton has too many solid picks.  The question is what message she wishes to send about the ticket.  A progressive pick to extend another olive branch to the Sanders votes?  A safe centrist pick from a swing state to appeal to independents and moderates?  A minority pick to demonstrate the inclusiveness of the Democratic Party when compared to the race-baiting and anti-immigrant stance of the Republican Party reverting to its Know-Nothing roots?  We should learn the answer on Friday or Saturday.

EDIT:  When I first wrote this, I forgot to mention Labor Secretary Tom Perez.  After getting some attention early, he got shuffled to the media backburner, but his emerged this week as a presumed finalist (along with Kaine and Vilsack).  Before serving as Labor Secretary, Secretary Perez was in charge of the Civil Rights Division of the Department of Justice and received serious consideration for Attorney General when Eric Holder stepped down.  He has a strong record as a progressive and has a good record for being a good deal maker.