DCW 2016 Senate Forecast

Welcome to the inaugural edition of the Democratic Convention Watch 2016 Senate Forecast, showing the Democrats projected to win 50.3 seats. Assuming the Dems take over the seats in WI and IL, we need 3 additional seats from IN/NV/MO/NC/NH/PA.

The forecast is based on a average of pundit and poll based forecasts, including own own DocJess. The 3rd column shows a running total of Senate seats.

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State     DCW Cook WP CrystalBall Rothenberg
Update     10/20/16 9/30/16 10/19/16 10/10/16 10/21/16
Dem-Strong D   10 9 8 11 9
Dem-Lean DL   3 2 3 0 2
Tossup T   5 7 6 6 6
Rep-Lean RL   0 2 4 0 1
Rep-Strong R   16 14 13 17 16
Dem ’16 Projection 14.3   14.9 14.5 14.2 14.0 13.8
Dem ’18/’20 Seats 36.0   36 36 36 36 36
Dem Senate Projection 50.3   50.9 50.5 50.2 50.0 49.8
Dem-Gain     4.9 4.5 4.2 4.0 3.8
               
               
CA (Open) D 37 D D D D D
CT (Blumenthal) D 38 D D D D D
HI (Schatz) D 39 D D D D D
MD (Open) D 40 D D D D D
NY (Schumer) D 41 D D D D D
OR (Wyden) D 42 D D D D D
VT (Leahy) D 43 D D D D D
WA (Murray) D 44 D D D D D
CO (Bennet) D 45 D D DL D D
WI (Johnson) R 46 D DL DL D DL
IL (Kirk) R 47 DL DL DL D DL
IN (Open) R 48 DL T T T T
NV (Open) D 49 DL T T T T
MO (Blunt) R 50 T T T T T
NC (Burr) R 51 T T T T T
NH (Ayotte) R 52 T T T T T
PA (Toomey) R 53 T T T T T
FL (Rubio) R 54 T T RL R RL
AZ (MCCain) R 55 R RL RL R R
OH (Portman) R 56 R RL RL R R
GA (Isakson) R 57 R R RL R R
AK (Murkowski) R   R R R R R
AL (Shelby) R   R R R R R
AR (Boozman) R   R R R R R
IA (Grassley) R   R R R R R
ID (Crapo) R   R R R R R
KS (Moran) R   R R R R R
KY (Paul) R   R R R R R
LA (Open) R   R R R R R
ND (Hoeven) R   R R R R R
OK (Lankford) R   R R R R R
SC (Scott) R   R R R R R
SD (Thune) R   R R R R R
UT (Lee) R   R R R R R
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