Well the Senate is going down to the wire, but the bottom line hasn’t changed. Assuming the Dems take over the seats in WI and IL, they need 3 additional seats from IN/NV/MO/NC/NH/PA. While WI has tightened up, the signs are positive in NV and PA.
The forecast is based on a average of pundit and poll based forecasts, including own own DocJess. The 3rd column shows a running total of Senate seats.
| State | DCW | CrystalBall | WP | Cook | Rothenberg | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Update | 10/20/16 | 11/3/16 | 10/19/16 | 11/2/16 | 11/3/16 | ||
| Dem-Strong | D | 10 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 9 | |
| Dem-Lean | DL | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tossup | T | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | |
| Rep-Lean | RL | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| Rep-Strong | R | 16 | 16 | 13 | 14 | 16 | |
| Dem ’16 Projection | 14.2 | 14.9 | 14.3 | 14.2 | 13.9 | 13.5 | |
| Dem ’18/’20 Seats | 36.0 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 | |
| Dem Senate Projection | 50.2 | 50.9 | 50.3 | 50.2 | 49.9 | 49.5 | |
| Dem-Gain | 4.9 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 3.5 | ||
| CA (Open) | D | 37 | D | D | D | D | D |
| CT (Blumenthal) | D | 38 | D | D | D | D | D |
| HI (Schatz) | D | 39 | D | D | D | D | D |
| MD (Open) | D | 40 | D | D | D | D | D |
| NY (Schumer) | D | 41 | D | D | D | D | D |
| OR (Wyden) | D | 42 | D | D | D | D | D |
| VT (Leahy) | D | 43 | D | D | D | D | D |
| WA (Murray) | D | 44 | D | D | D | D | D |
| CO (Bennet) | D | 45 | D | D | DL | D | D |
| IL (Kirk) | R | 46 | DL | D | DL | DL | DL |
| WI (Johnson) | R | 47 | D | DL | DL | T | T |
| IN (Open) | R | 48 | DL | T | T | T | T |
| NV (Open) | D | 49 | DL | T | T | T | T |
| PA (Toomey) | R | 50 | T | DL | T | T | T |
| MO (Blunt) | R | 51 | T | T | T | T | T |
| NC (Burr) | R | 52 | T | T | T | T | T |
| NH (Ayotte) | R | 53 | T | T | T | T | T |
| FL (Rubio) | R | 54 | T | RL | RL | RL | RL |
| AZ (MCCain) | R | 55 | R | R | RL | RL | R |
| OH (Portman) | R | 56 | R | R | RL | RL | R |
| GA (Isakson) | R | 57 | R | R | RL | R | R |
| AK (Murkowski) | R | R | R | R | R | R | |
| AL (Shelby) | R | R | R | R | R | R | |
| AR (Boozman) | R | R | R | R | R | R | |
| IA (Grassley) | R | R | R | R | R | R | |
| ID (Crapo) | R | R | R | R | R | R | |
| KS (Moran) | R | R | R | R | R | R | |
| KY (Paul) | R | R | R | R | R | R | |
| LA (Open) | R | R | R | R | R | R | |
| ND (Hoeven) | R | R | R | R | R | R | |
| OK (Lankford) | R | R | R | R | R | R | |
| SC (Scott) | R | R | R | R | R | R | |
| SD (Thune) | R | R | R | R | R | R | |
| UT (Lee) | R | R | R | R | R | R |
