Because each state gets to set its own primary date, primary season is a gradual thing. Putting aside a handful of exceptions (and run-offs), most primaries fall into two clusters. The first cluster occurs in May and June (starting on May 8 and ending on June 26). The second cluster occurs in August and September (starting on August 2 and ending on September 13). During both clusters, most primaries occur on Tuesday, and there is at least one state on each Tuesday (other than May 29).
On May 8, there are primaries in Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia. Key primaries are the Republican Senate primary in Indiana and West Virginia. Both are states won by Trump in which Democratic Senators are running for re-election. In Indiana, you have three candidates running for the Republican nomination. It’s not clear that it really matters who wins or that there is much difference between the candidates. West Virginia is a different matter. The Republicans are scared to death that Don Blankenship could get the nomination. Blankenship is the former CEO of one of the state’s larger coal miner and did time in prison related to miners who died due to unsafe mining practices. The national GOP has (through super-pacs) been running adds against Blankenship. In Ohio, the key races are for Governor with both parties having primaries in the race to replace term-limited John Kasich and Ohio’s 12th District in which there is both a regular primary and a special election primary (most of the candidates are the same in both, so both parties should have the same winner for both primaries, but there is always the chance in a close race that there could be a split result).
On May 15, there are primaries in Idaho, Nebraska, Oregon, and Pennsylvania. The big story is likely to be the new congressional districts in Pennsylvania. Amazingly, there are no incumbent against incumbent primaries although there could be an incumbent against incumbent general election. Given the newness of the lines, it will be interesting to see how the local interests will influence the candidates chosen.
On May 22, there are primaries in Arkansas, Georgia, and Kentucky, and a run-off in Texas. In Texas, there are key run-offs on the Democratic side for Governor and the Seventh District. In both contests, the Republicans will be favored but Democrats have a shot. The question for local Democrats will be whether to go with the “purer” candidate ideologically or with the candidate who could win over college-educated Republicans who do not like being part of the Party of Trump.
June 5 is the big day with primaries in Alabama, California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota. California is the tough one to call given its “first two system.” Particularly in close districts, it matters how many strong candidates each party has. In a district (or state-wide for the Democrats) that your party should win, you want a second strong candidate so that you can lock the other party out of the general. If you are slightly behind in the district, you want one strong candidate to assure yourself of a place in the general (and hope that the other party nominate a divisive candidate that gives you a chance to pick up independents and moderates). What you don’t want is three strong candidates which create the possibility (as has happened in the past) that your party could get the most primary votes but still not finish in the top two due to your vote being split too much. (Districts where Democrats could find themselves locked out of the general include the 1st, 4th, 8th, 10th, 39th, 48th, 49th, 50th. The last three are districts that would be targets in November if a Democrat makes it to the final two.) Particularly with Governor being an open seat, the other big question will be whether the Democrats can get both of the general election slots (as they did for Senate in 2016) for Governor and Senate. (The primaries in Mississippi do not include the special election for Senate which will be a “non-partisan” race in November with a run-off if nobody wins a majority.)
June 12 has primaries in Maine, North Dakota, Nevada, South Carolina, and Virginia. In Maine, you have an open race for Governor. In Nevada, you have an open race for Governor and two congressional seats (3rd and 4th). In Virginia, Republicans have a three-way Senate race. You also have an open seat in Virginia 6th and a very important Democratic primary in District 10 which will be a target race in November.
June 19 is the calm week with the only certain primary being for D.C. but the chance at a run-off in Arkansas.
The spring primaries end on June 26 with contests in Colorado, Maryland, New York (federal offices only), Oklahoma, and Utah. There could be a run-off in Mississippi, North Carolina (depending on whether any of the federal offices need a run-off), and/or South Carolina. In Colorado, Governor is an open seat. Additionally, the 2nd District will be an open seat as the Democratic incumbent is running for governor and the 5th District might be an open seat as the incumbent Republican failed to get enough signatures on his petition. (That issue is still being fought in court.) In New York, the interesting race might be the Republican Primary for the 11th district where disgraced former Congressman Michael Grimm is challenging incumbent Congressman Daniel Donovan. In Utah, the big race is the open seat for the U.S. Senate where Mitt Romney is hoping/expecting to do better with primary voters than he did at the Republican state convention with activists.
While technically not a primary, the special election (as in Mississippi, Texas special elections are nominally non-partisan with a run-off in nobody wins) for Texas’s 27th District will take place on June 30. All four of the candidates who will compete in the run-offs on May 22 are on the ballot for the special election. (Whether anybody will drop out after May 22 is to be seen, but you could have the unusual result that a candidate loses on May 22 but makes it to the run-off in the special election due to cross-over votes.)
There could also be run-offs in some states in July depending upon the results in the primaries noted above.
Tmess — Just a few comments about those new lines in PA. The primaries are, in some places, FASCINATING. In the 5th, we started with 17 — SEVENTEEN –making it more akin to a California Jungle Primary than anything else. It’s down to 11 at last count, and the person under criminal indictment is STILL IN!. In the 6th, not only is there no incumbent running – like several other districts, the incumbent has decided against running again. In the 6th, the Republican raised $250 in Q1. (Not a misprint) — and there’s a rumor they will make him step aside. I hope not, as he and his brothers own the Wendy’s in the area, and I’m planning street theatre this summer if he stays in. In the 1st, one of the candidates is the grandson of FDR’s second VP.
But the point I actually wanted to make is about the state House and Senate here in PA — we have contested races for those seats, too. Often, we can’t get ANYONE to run (and there are a bunch of seats with no candidates) but here in SEPA, the ballots are just jam-packed. The incumbent Lt. Governor even has 4 primary challengers.
It’s going to be a long night on the 15th!