Tmess gave a great overview of the upcoming primary season. This week, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia are up. In addition to Tmess’s information, here’s a little local color.
We’ll start in West Virginia because it’s just plain the most fun. There is a contested Republican Senatorial primary. The candidates are Don Blankenship, Rep. Evan Jenkins and state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey. Now, the fun part here is that while there hasn’t been any polling to speak of, the “common wisdom” says that Blankenship has a real chance. And here is the part that will make you chuckle. Not only does Don not live in West Virginia, he lives in Vegas, as does his parole officer, AND he needs permission from his parole officer to travel out of state. I’m personally pulling for him to win — Mitch McConnell’s PAC (Mountain Families) recently spent $1.3 million on anti-Blankenship TV ads, as well as digital ads. This worked SO WELL for Mitch in Alabama a few months back. And by the way, Don refers to Mitch’s father-in-law as a “Chinaperson”. Very feminist of him. Bottom line, if Don can pull it off, Joe Manchin will breathe a sigh of relief. Joe is a mixed bag: we’d like to keep the seat to keep it blue, even though Joe’s is not a solid vote, but if it gives us the majority, there’s a lot of good in terms of process, not to mention Dick Schumer as Senate Majority Leader in lieu of Mitch. As an aside, one of Joe’s daughters is Heather Bresch — you remember her. She’s the person for whom there is a special ring in hell because of upping the cost of EpiPens by 400%. There are other races, as in, ALL the Congressional seats, but there is little chance any will change parties. But political junkies can look forward to 2020 when Governor Jim Justice is running for re-election — he was elected in 2016 as a Democrat and then came out in love with Donald Trump and changed parties.
In Ohio, there are two marquee races: Senate and Governor. Sherrod Brown (D) is looking to keep his Senate seat, and his primary challenger will be decided on Tuesday. Smart money says it will be current House member Jim Renacci. The seat leans Democratic. At the Congressional level, there is one open seat, the 12th, which will also generate a Special Election in August with the same cast of characters. The seat was held by Pat Tiberi (R), a member of Ways and Means who announced last year that he would leave Congress in January of 2018 (which he did) – conventional wisdom says he did so to enter the private sector AND avoid having to be involved with writing the Trumpkin tax bill. “They” say the seat leans Republican (it’s part of the Columbus suburbs) but in a wave year…..
And then there’s the gubernatorial race. John Kasich (R) is term limited so the seat is open, and John’s already making moves for another presidential race in 2020. Mike DeWine(R), the current AG, has the best shot in the primary, and even in a toss-up, he’s looking strong. The main Democratic contenders are Dennis Kucinich and Richard Cordrary. The former is well known as a former Congressman, and failed presidential candidate. He’s a firebrand liberal. Recently, there have been some questions about his relationships, including a friendship with Bashar Assad. (Yes, THAT Assad). Still he’s got the backing not of Bernie Sanders himself, but Sander’s group. On the other side, Rich Cordray has the support of Elizabeth Warren, and most mainstream Democratic movers and shakers, although he does have an A+ rating from the NRA. One Ohio pundit referred to the race as high-test coffee vs. decaf. Cordray has a better shot against DeWine in the General.
The other State offices (Lt. Governor, Secretary of State, Attorney General, Treasurer and Auditor) are all open. They are currently all in Republican hands. We’ll handicap those races after the primary, based on the victors.
On to Indiana. The statewide candidates up for election this year (Secretary of State, Attorney General, Treasurer, and Auditor) are not determined by primary, but by party convention, so there are no candidates as of this writing. Of note in Indiana, where the marquee race is the Senate race, is that voters declare the party to which they belong when they select a primary ballot, although it’s “by voting history” meaning the ballot chosen at the primary. There is no space on the voter registration form for a party selection. A voter’s party can be challenged at the polls, but the data is not at the polls. It begs the question of how one switches parties, and I have no idea, please use the comments if you do.
The reason to bring up the party registration is that current Senator Joe Donnelly (D) is running for re-election in what is considered one of the three most vulnerable Democratic seats in the Senate. He is running unopposed. The question is whether any Democrats will crossover to vote for the “weakest” Republican candidate, which will be difficult in this environment. There was only one poll accomplished, and it was done by Gravis, one of the worst in the industry. Their polling looked at Mike Braun, Todd Rokita and Luke Messer, and found them at 26, 16 and 13, respectively, meaning about half the electorate hasn’t make up their minds, and that poll was taken a few weeks ago. The three candidates all have about the same amount of money, and they’re all pretty similar in terms of views and values. If, however, we see more people voting in the Democratic primary than usual, that will tell us something.
Finally, North Carolina. The races are exclusively Congressional, and there’s nothing to say in a state as unfairly gerrymandered as North Caroline.
Next week: Idaho, Nebraska, Oregon and my state, Pennsylvania (and that last one is fascinating!)
