Up this week: Idaho, Nebraska, Oregon and Pennsylvania.

Idaho: In this ruby red state, it is unlikely that any of the positions up for election will change parties in November. There is a certain amount of musical chairs amoung the Republicans. Governor Bruce Otter has decided not to run for re-election, and so current Lt. Governor Brad Little and current Congressman Raul Labrador lead the pack of Republicans running for the gubernatorial nomination.  Five Republicans, primarily state reps, will be competing for the Lt. Governor nomination.  Seven Republicans are vying to replace Labrador, and the other Congressman, Mike Simpson, is running unopposed in the GOP primary.

The potential for a Democrat to take over any of these positions seems unlikely. The one thing to keep in the back of our minds is the housing crisis in Boise and its environs, After the Great Recession 10 years ago, people started moving to Boise as opportunities arose, and because it was cheaper than say, California. However, the construction industry abandoned the state, and thus, there is a paucity of housing, especially affordable housing, and no ability to get it built. So, there may be people who want change, including places to live – but red state populations are not known for voting their own self-interest.

On to Nebraska. The incumbent Republicans will win their primaries. They will win the General. Nebraska is one of two states that can split its Electoral College votes. (Quizzo: Write the other state in the comments if you know which one it is.) Obama won one Electoral vote in 2008, the last Democrat to win the presidential contest in Nebraska was in 1964. (Quizzo: use the comments if you know who that was.)

Oregon is the only state where all voting is accomplished by mail. There is no Senate race this year. Governor Kate Brown has been primaried, but she will prevail, and go on to win the General. The GOP primary will be a bit of a nail biter because state Rep. Knute Buehler, the presumptive front runner, has not been polling as well as would have been expected. Fun fact: Knute Buehler spent $2.8 million of the $3.5 million he raised, while his competitors Sam Carpenter and Greg Wooldridge each raised under $280,000. So what is Buehler’s problem? He’s running as a pro-choice Republican.

There are five Congressional Districts (CDs) in Oregon. In CD 1, incumbent Suzanne Bonamici is running unopposed, as is her GOP opponent George Griffith. Her 1st quarter numbers had Bonamici with almost half a million cash on hand (CoH), which Griffith had $87 CoH. Not a misprint, and that should give you insight into November barring any unforced errors. In CD2, incumbent Greg Walden has six Democrats vying to challenge him in the General. Walden will hold the seat, even in a Democratic wave. The third, fourth and fifth CDs are safe Democratic seats with no challenges to the incumbent Congressmen.

And finally, Pennsylvania, which is, to say the least, fascinating. First, all of the Congressional Districts were “ungerrymandered” earlier this year by court order, and many voters will be surprised at the polls that they are in a different CD.  If you live in Pennsylvania and are unsure of which CD you’re in, click this link, scroll down to the second map, enter your address and find out. There are some statewide offices, many contested primaries at the state and Federal level, some local Special Elections, and ballot initiatives. Let’s play.

At the top of the ticket are the races for Senate and Governor. Incumbents Senator Bob Casey (D) and Governor Tom Wolf (D) are running unopposed. On the Republican side, Jim Christiana and Lou Barletta are vying to challenge Bob Casey. Conventional wisdom says that “more Trump than Trump” Barletta will win with a large spread. In the Republican gubernatorial race, Scott Wagner and Paul Mango have launched one of the ugliest back-and-forth sets of TV ads in recent history. There’s been a limited amount of polling, but it all points to a rout by Scott Wagner. There is a third candidate, Laura Ellsworth, who will not be a factor. Both the Senate and Gubernatorial races are rated “Likely Democratic”, although Bob Casey makes it onto some of the “endangered” lists from some raters. My prediction is that both will prevail in November.

Both party’s Lt. Governor positions are contested, with 4 Republicans and 5 Democrats in the contests. While the Governor and Lt. Governor run separately in the primary: victors will run on a coordinated ticket. Scott Wagner has endorsed Paul Bartos, and that looks like the ticket. Bartos’ fundraising has dwarfed his competitors, and he is the only one who can afford to advertise.

Tom Wolf has not endorsed on the Democratic side, even though one of the competitors is the current Lt. Governor, Mike Stack. Stack has had his issues. The other four competitors are Nina Ahmed, Kathi Cozzone, John Fetterman and Ray Sosa. This is an interesting race because it’s incredibly rare that an incumbent Lt. Governor has any competition.

On Pennsylvania ballots, the names of all non-local candidates have their home county listed below their name. (Local candidates have their city or town.) Thus, many low-information voters tend to select the candidate from their home county. Both Mike Stack and Nina Ahmed hail from Philadelphia, and could conceivably split that vote. However, for those voters looking to vote for a woman, there could be a split between Nina Ahmed and Kathi Cozzone, who is from the Philadelphia suburbs in Chester County. Ray Sosa is from Montgomery County, another Philadelphia suburb. John Fetterman is the only candidate from the western part of the state (Allegheny County) and the only one with statewide recognition from his run two years ago for US Senate, as well as his endorsements from Bernie Sanders, and Ed Rendell. Fetterman will win the race.

And now the Congressional Districts. As an aside, in November, in addition to the standard election, there will be a Special Election for Pat Meehan’s seat in the OLD 7th CD, and likely Charlie Dent’s seat in the OLD 15th. The winners of those races will hold the old district seats until January when the winners of the General take their seats in the next Congress. If someone wins both the Special and the General, he or she will have a slight advantage in House seniority. As of this writing the candidates for the Special haven’t been announced. They will be picked by the parties probably over the summer. There is a high probability that the winners of the new 5th and the new 7th will run in that Special.

CD 1: Current Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick (R) will easily defeat his challenger in the primary. Of note, Fitzpatrick is the only Philadelphia-area incumbent GOP Congressman running for re-election. There are three Democratic candidates, and the two with traction are Scott Wallace and Rachel Reddick.  This is a fascinating race because the unforced error of a first-time candidate may well cost her the primary, even though she likely would have a better chance of winning the General. Rachel Reddick was a registered Republican until last year, when she switched her registration to run for Congress. Had she said that “I used to be a Republican, but found that the GOP has changed, and I am aligned with Democratic values and platforms” she would have been fine. But she lied, giving Scott Wallace an opening to point this out as part of his advertising campaign. Wallace has the support of the Bucks County Democratic Party, he can self-fund, and he’s got the gravitas of being a New Deal Democrat in that his grandfather was FDR’s second Vice President. Who wins between Wallace and Reddick is a toss-up, it will be one of the closest Democratic Congressional races of the night, although Wallace has the advantage.

CD 2: Brendan Boyle (D) is the current Congressman in the old 13th District. The name “Michele Lawrence” will appear on the ballot, but she will be a non-issue. On the GOP side, David Torres will appear on the primary ballot.  Neither Lawrence nor Torres has raised any money.  Boyle will win the primary and coast to victory in November, He’s incredibly popular, serves his constituency well, and the last time a Republican won a Congressional seat from Philadelphia was 1946.

CD 3: Dwight Evans (D) is the incumbent Congressman in the old 2nd District. He has a primary challenger, but will likely win with over 75% of the vote (at a bare bones minimum). Bryan Lieb will be the Republican candidate, but see CD2, above, for the identical outcome.

CD 4: Dan David is the sole Republican, and thus will win that primary. Given the demographic and registration of what is now the CD primarily comprised of Montgomery County, he will lose the General. The Democratic primary candidates are Shira Goodman, Madeleine Dean and Joe Hoeffel. Conventional wisdom says that Madeleine Dean will win although it will depend on who turns out on Primary Day. She has the money and endorsements, but is not well-loved. Joe Hoeffel is old guard: he used to be a Montgomery County Commissioner and prior to that, a Congressman from the area. Ergo, if the voter make-up is predominantly low-information voters who are over a certain age, he’ll do much better. Shira Goodman was never able to pick up traction. Advantage: Dean.

CD 5: The most outrageous race of all the Congressional Districts in Pennsylvania. Whichever Democrat wins the primary, and the race started with seventeen (17!!!) will beat Pearl Kim (R) in November. Kim is running unopposed. For most of the race, Of the current ten active candidates, the conventional wisdom until recently said that Rich Lazer would win. Lazer has the lion’s share of endorsements, including many unions, Philadelphia mayor Jim Kenney, and Bernie Sanders. That union support was thought to insure a serious ground game in the Philadelphia part of the district extending out.

But then Mary Gay Scanlon hit the airwaves with a huge ad buy, many featuring Ed Rendell and his endorsement of her. She has come out on top in the limited amount of polling accomplished. Greg Vitali has also done very well in the limited amount of polling available, running second to Scanlon. Vitali shouldn’t have a chance, since he initially dropped out of the race because he didn’t want to spend the time raising money. and wanted to concentrate on keeping his State House seat, which he’s held for a quarter century. But then, he jumped back in and his name will be on the ballot for both Congress and State Assembly.  Both Lazer and candidate Ashley Lunkenheimer have been up with ads, and Thaddeus Kirkland just went up in the last few days. Ads are important in a busy field because most voters are low-information voters, and actually select their choice based on what they see on television. (I only wish I were making this up.) Certainly, there are lots of voters who attend candidate forums and make an informed decision. This race is especially hard to handicap because in addition to Scanlon and Lunkenheimer, there are several other women running, and it appears that there are a lot of people who want to get women into Congress. Those women are: Molly Shannon, Lindy Li, Margo Davidson (currently under indictment for a hit and run while drunk), and Theresa Wright, who hasn’t campaigned.  The field fills out with Larry Arata and David Wertime.

In a field this big, a candidate only needs a bit over 9% of the vote to win. (You read that right.) And it’s anybody’s guess.

CD 6: Both candidates are running unopposed, and thus the winners will be Chrissy Houlahan (D) and Greg McCauley (R). Rumor has it that Greg will allow himself to be removed from the ballot to be replaced by Michelle Kichline, but that’s just a rumor. The smart money says that Houlahan will win big in November.

CD 7: the new 7th is predominantly comprised of Charlie Dent’s old district. After highly contested primaries on both sides, this looks to be one of the tightest races going into the General. On the Democratic side, the major players are Greg Edwards, Susan Wild and John Morganelli.  I can’t understand how or why Morganelli is running as a Democrat, as he is a Trumpian. This is one of those rare cases where if he wins, it may well pay to support the Republican. Susan Wild has the institutional support, while Bernie Sanders has canvassed for Greg Edwards.  This is the classic “Party v Progressive” race, which we’ve seen over and over this year. On the Republican side, Marty Norhstein, Olympic medal winner from 2000, looks like he’s got it, but Dean Browning is presenting a large challenge.

CD 8: Matt Cartwright (D) is the incumbent Congressman in the old 17th CD, and has no primary challenger. On the Republican side, the candidates are John Chrin, Robert Kuniegel and Joe Peters (R). The three recently met for a debate in Lackawanna and, through their answers, endeavored to be the most “Trumpian”. Whoever wins is facing a tight race, rated “Likely Democratic”.  There’s no pubic polling, but the likely GOP primary winner is John Chrin, who just went up last week with an ad buy tying him to Trump.

CD 9: Every rating set places this race as “Safe Republican” at R+14, but I’m not wholly convinced. The current Congressmen for the old districts are Bud Schuster (retiring) and Lou Barletta (running for Senate). On the GOP side, the primary candidates are George Halcovage, Dan Meuser, and Scott Uehlinger. Meuser will likely take it as he has Barletta’s endorsement, as well as the support of the Republican infrastructure, although a problem for him is that he doesn’t actually live in the District. Living in the Congressional area one represents is not a legal requirement, but, it makes people feel better if one does. Still, he’s got the support and the money. On the Democratic side, there are also three candidates. Laura Quick, Gary Wegman and Denny Wolff. Quick and Wegman are running as progressives and will split that vote. Denny Wolff was Ag Secretary under Rendell, is a farmer, and is running as a centrist. Given the rural nature of much of the district, and Wolff’s potential appeal to Independents, look for this race to shift left from “Safe” after Wolff wins the primary and the contest between him and Meuser begins in earnest.

CD 10: This is Tom Marino’s old district (mostly) although he’s now moving to the 12th. Scott Perry (R), incumbent Congressman in the old 4th is running unopposed in the Republican primary. There are four Democrat candidates vying to challenge him and you can read all about them here. Of note, if Shavonnia Corbin-Johnson wins, and then wins the General, she will be the first African-American, and the first woman to ever represent this area, and that would be at the age of 27.

CD 11: This new district is considered a safe Republican seat. Jess King is the sole Democratic candidate in the primary. While she was always running against Lloyd Smucker (R) in the old 16th, the new lines make her quest unreachable, even in a wave year. Smucker is running (again) against Chet Beiler in the GOP primary, will defeat him (again) and will go on to hold a Congressional seat in November.

CD 12: Tom Marino (R), incumbent in the old 10th has a primary challenge from Doug McLinko, but that’s not going anywhere, and Marino will win the primary.  The two competitors in the Democratic primary are Marc Friedenberg and Judy Herschel, neither of whom has been able to gain traction, nor raise much money. Marino will return to Congress.

CD 13:  The sole Democratic candidate is Brent Ottoway, who will win the primary, by virtue of running unopposed, but given that the make-up of the district is R+22, won’t win in November. This is the busiest Republican field in the state this cycle. The old seat (geographically only) has been held by Bill Shuster since 2001 (he’s retiring) and before that, by his dad Bud from 1973 – 2001. There will be eight Republicans on the ballot:  John Joyce (Shuster’s choice), Art Halvorson, who came within two percentage points of upsetting Shuster in the 2016 primary, John Eichelberger, who currently serves about 30% of the district from his current position in the State Senate, Steve Bloom, Ben Hornberger, Bernie Washabaugh, Doug Mastriano, and Travis Schooley. Although Halvorson has name recognition, it’s likely that Joyce will be winning the primary and therefore going to DC.

CD 14: There are four Democratic primary candidates: Bibiana Boerio, Tom Prigg, Adam Sedlock and Bob Solomon. Advantage Boerio to win the Democratic primary. The excitement here is on the Republican side as Guy Reschenthaler and Rick Saccone vie for the win. Reschenthaler is a State Senator, and Saccone is a state rep who lost his Congressional bid to Conor Lamb in the Special Election a few weeks back. Advantage Reschenthaler in the primary. This is a Likely Republican hold, unless Boerio can leverage her experience as Chief of Staff to Joe Sestak, CFO and EVP at Ford Motor Credit, gets a boost from her gender, and can greatly improve her fundraising.

CD 15: Of all the new CDs in Pennsylvania, this one is the most geographically similar to its old district, in this case, the 5th. Glenn Thompson (R) is the incumbent, and he is running unopposed in the primary. Running unopposed in the Democratic primary is Susan Boser. Obviously, both will win their primaries. Thompson will hold his seat in November.

CD 16: The Republican candidate is Mike Kelly, who is the current Congressman in the old 3rd CD. There are three Democrats vying to oppose him in the primary. They are Robert Multari, Chris Rieger, and Ron DiNicola. None has gotten much traction, and because of the demographics of this new CD, it will go to Kelly in November.

CD 17: The true intersection of Congressional “ungerrymandering”. The Republican candidate is the incumbent Congressman from the old 12th CD, Keith Rothfus. The major Democratic candidate is the incumbent Congressman from the old 18th CD, Conor Lamb. Lamb has a challenger in Raymond Linsenmayer, who will not be an issue. Beth Tarsasi recently dropped out of the Democratic primary for this seat, and put her support behind Conor Lamb.  There’s no doubt that Lamb will win the primary. As for the General, this is one of 22 seats nationwide with Republican incumbents considered to be a toss-up. If Lamb runs the race the way he ran the Special Election, really being “out amoung the people” and meeting them at their locations, speaking in their language, he has a high probability of flipping the seat.

CD 18: The current Congressman is Conor Lamb (see CD 17). There are two Democrats vying to represent this district, Mike Doyle, the incumbent Congressman in CD 14, who is now in the 18th. His competition is Janis Brooks. Doyle will win, and he’ll go on to win the General since the Republicans are not fielding a candidate.