With no primaries this week, the focus turns to June 5. While there are several other significant states with primaries on June 5, the big one is California. While California is a blue state, it is large enough that there is still a significant Republican contingent (14 Representatives) in the California delegation. Measured either by total seats, by current Republican delegations, or by Partisan Vote Index score (6 in seats that are R+3 or more Democratic), California will play a significant role in which party has a majority in the House in 2019. The House seats in California range from D+40 (Barbara Lee) to R+14 (Kevin McCarthy).
Aside from the size of California, the complicating factor for next week’s primary are the rules governing the primary. California uses a “top two” primary. Like a jungle primary (which is not really a primary, but a general election with a run-off rule), all the candidates from all of the parties run in one election. (Thus a voter could pick a Democrat for Governor, a Republican for Lieutenant Governor, Green for U.S. Senate, and Peace and Justice for U.S. House.) Unlike a jungle primary, in which a candidate can win the seat by getting over 50% in the “primary,” a top two primary is a true primary and the candidates who finish first and second will be on the November ballot.
The nature of the top two primary creates an element of strategy for the parties. In districts in which you have the majority, having two strong candidates is a good thing. It makes it possible that the general election will feature two candidates from your party. In a district in which your lead is solid enough, you can even have three strong candidates without risking the seat. On the other hand, if you are the trailing party in the district, you want fewer candidates from your party. You can get away with having two candidates if the other party has more than two strong candidates and the district is close enough. The bottom line, however, is that having three strong candidates in a close district can result in you being shut out of the general election.
To be blunt, Republicans tend to do a better job of candidate control than the Democrats. This can be seen in some of the current Republican seats. Take for example, California’s Tenth District. By the numbers, this seat is a pure Toss-up seat (an even PVI). The Democrats have six candidates to the two Republican candidates. That creates a real possibility (especially with strategic voting by the Republicans) of no Democrat making the general election ballot in a district that the Democrats could win in November. The need to make sure that some Democrat makes the November ballot puts the national party in a bit of a bind. They can designate one of the candidates as the “Red to Blue” (the party’s list of key challengers in Republican-held districts) candidate. But that runs the risk of charges that the national party is interfering in the race. Or they can sit back and hope for the best. Turning to the key races . . . .
In the U.S. Senate primary, there are ten Democrats, eleven Republicans, and eleven independents/third party candidates on the ballot. Current polling has Senator Feinstein with a comfortable lead over the pack (31% in the most recent poll, almost enough to assure her of making the general election regardless of how the undecided voters break). In the most recent poll, none of the other candidates has over 10% and about 50% of the voters are undecided.
For Governor, there are twelve Democrats, five Republicans, and ten other candidates on the ballot. This race is a little closer, with Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom leading the field (21% in the most recent poll). However, in the most recent poll, there are two candidates (one Democrat and one Republican) in the low double digits, and around 45% of the voters are undecided. Given the number of candidates, twenty-one percent might be enough to make the top two, but Newsom probably needs to pick up at least some of the undecided Democrats to make the general. (By contrast, Senator Feinstein should make the general even if all of the undecided Democrats end up supporting the leading Democratic challenger.)
For the House, it should go without saying, but turnout is the key. Even though California makes it relatively easy to vote, many voters skip the primary trusting that they will have at least one good candidate on the November ballot. Strong Democratic turnout will make it easier for Democrats to get at least one candidate on the November ballot in all of the districts and could lead to Republicans being shut out of some districts. With 53 seats, we will not be able to note all of them, but here are some of the ones to pay close attention to:
California 1: A R+11 seat, so one that will be a challenge to win in November. Incumbent Republican Doug La Malfa will almost certainly make the November ballot. There are six Democrats running, so there is a slim chance that the other Republican on the ballot could finish second. However, that other Republican has no funding. The two top Democrats in terms of fundraising are Jessica Holcombe and Audrey Denney.
California 4: A R+10, so another one that will be something of a stretch in November. Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock should make the November ballot. As in California 1, there are six Democrats versus two Republicans creating the potential of an all-Republican general election. Again, the other Republican has not raised much money and two Democrats have stood out — Regina Bateson and Jessica Morse — in terms of fundraising. In both districts, the leading challengers have raised enough to stand out from the other contenders, but whichever makes the general will need to raise a lot more.
California 8 — A R +9 district, so somewhat on the edge of a winnable district in a Democratic wave. Democrats have had a little better candidate control here (3 Democrats to 2 Republicans). Incumbent Republican Paul Cook should make the general. The battle for second may be a close one between Republican Timothy Donnelly (who unlike some other Republicans challenging Republican incumbents have raised some funds) and Democrat Marjorie Doyle.
California 10 — As noted above, a nominally “Even” district. While there is a second Republican on the ballot along with incumbent Jeff Denham, that other Republican has raised very little, if anything. There has been good fundraising for the Democrats, and the Democrat with the most money raised — Josh Harder — is only a little behind Representative Denham. However, three other Democrats have also raised at least $200,000. Assuming that the Republicans do not organize strategic voting to assure that both Republicans make the top two, this race will be a key one in November.
California 21 & California 22 & California 23 & California 24 — In all of these districts, the Republican incumbent managed to avoid drawing any Republican opposition. As such, the incumbent should make the November ballot, and one of the Democrats should also make the general election ballot. (Outside of California 21, there are third party candidates on the primary ballot who could steal the general election ballot slot.) California 21 is a D +5 district, currently held by Republican David Valadao. As there are only two candidates on the primary ballot, both will make the general election. California 22 is a R+8 district, currently held by Trump Administration stooge Devin Nunes. One of the three Democrats (most likely Fresno County DA Andrew Janz) should make the general election ballot. California 23 is the most Republican district in the state (R +14) currently held by Speaker-wannabe Kevin McCarthy. One of the four Democrats should make it to November, but none of them have raised any significant money. California 25 is an Even district, currently held by Steve Knight. Two Democrats (Bryan Caforio and Katherine Hill) have raised more than $1,000,000.
California 39 — An Even district, but one in which the two parties have done a poor job of candidate control. With Republican incumbent Ed Royce deciding not to run, seven Republicans and six Democrats have gotten into the race. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee decided to put their thumb on the scale to assure that, at least, one Democrat makes the general election by naming Gil Cisneros as a “Red to Blue” candidate. Besides Cisneros, Democrats Andy Thorburn and Mai Tran have raised over $1,000,000. Two Republicans — Young Kim and Shawn Nelson — have raised over $500,000. Without polling, it is difficult to be sure, but I am seeing a result in which several candidates are clustered in the upper teens/low twenties. With a lucky break, two Democrats will be on the November ballot. If things break wrong, two Republicans will be on the November ballot and a likely pick-up will have been blown.
California 45 — A R+3 district that Secretary Clinton carried in 2016. Republican incumbent Mimi Walters has no Republican opposition; so one of the four Democrats should make the general. All four have raised at least $500,000, and three of the four have raised at least $1,000,000. The primary election should be very close, and this will be a pick-up opportunity in November.
California 48 — A R+4 district where incumbent Russophile Dana Rohrabacher has been a frequent Democratic target. There are six Republicans and eight Democrats on the ballot. Three of the Democrats and one of the Republicans “withdrew” after the deadline (meaning that they stay on the ballot). Two of the Democrats specifically endorsed Harely Rouda, but two other Democrats (Hans Keirstead and Omar Siddiqui) have also raised significant funds. The Republican who withdrew endorsed another of the Republican challengers (Scott Baugh who has also raised significant funds). In short, it is looking like a five-way race. Representative Rohrabacher will probably make the general, but it is unclear who will be the other candidate. In short, like California 39, there is a real chance that the number of Democrats running may result in two Republicans making the November ballot and a lost pick-up opportunity.
California 49 — A R+1 district that has been a frequent Democratic target. Incumbent Darrell Issa saw the writing on the wall and decided to retire. Four Democrats, eight Republicans, and four other candidates jumped into the open race. All four Democrats have raised significant funds (over $900,000). Three Republicans have raised over $300,000 but less than $500,000. Given the number of candidates, if the Republicans manage to unify behind two of the candidates, the Democrats could get shut out of the November ballot. Given the lack of significant funding for any of the Republicans, there is also a chance that the Republican vote could be widely dispersed (with none of them getting over 10%) resulting in the Democrats picking up this seat next week.
California 50 — A R+11 district represented by Duncan Hunter. There are three Democrats and three Republicans on the ballot, but only two of the Democrats and one of the Republican challengers have raised significant money. Again, one of those districts where there is a chance that Democrats could be shut out of the general election. However, if one of the two main Democrats — Josh Buttnar and Ammar Campa-Najjar — can pull away from the other, that candidate should finish in the top two.
In short, if things go the Democrats way on June 5, the Democrats could pick up a seat or two even before the November general. If the votes split the wrong way due to too many Democrats running, two or three seats that should be Democratic will stay Republican.
