While a slim majority of states hold their primaries (at least in non-presidential years) in May and June, most of the rest of the states hold their primaries in August and the first part of September. With the caution that there are always races that develop at the local level outside the glare of the national media (see New York 14), here is what to look out for over the next two months.
Before the next round of primaries begin, there are run-offs in July. The biggest of the run-offs is probably the Georgia Governor’s race on the Republican side where both candidates are trying their best to out-conservative each other.
The late summer primary season kicks off on August 2 with Tennessee. The big race in the fall will be the U.S. Senate seat, but the primaries do not appear to be competitive. The primaries for Governor on the hand may be more competitive. While none of the Congressional seats are likely to be competitive in the fall, the Republicans have several decently funded candidate running for the open seat (the Republican incumbent is one of those in the Governor’s race) in the Sixth District.
There are several primaries on August 7 — Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington — along with the special election in Ohio’s 12th District. In Kansas, the big primary will be the race for Governor. Kris Kobach (currently Secretary of State) has made a national reputation for the anti-immigrant legislation that he has gotten other states to adopt. Jeff Colyer has been governor since January (when Sam Brownback resigned to become an ambassador). And the current Insurance Commissioner (a significant office in Kansas) is trying to run as an outsider. In Kansas Second, the Republicans have a competitive primary for an open seat (probably safe, but not absolutely safe in November). The Democrats have a couple of solid candidates in Kansas Third which could become competitive if the Democrats have a strong showing in November. In Michigan, there are multiple candidates in both parties running for governor, but the primaries do not appear to be competitive. There are Democratic primaries in Michigan’s Sixth, Seventh, and Eighth District, all currently held by Republicans but potentially winnable in November. With Representative Sandy Levin retiring in Michigan’s Ninth and the resignation of Representative John Conyers in Michigan’s Thirteenth, both districts have competitive primaries. (Complicated in the Thirteenth by the primary for both the regular term and the special election for the remainder of this term being held simultaneously. ) Similarly the retirement of the Republican Representative in the Eleventh District (a lean Republican seat) has led to competitive primaries on both sides. Missouri should be quiet. While he might not get a solid majority, Josh Hawley should win the Republican nomination for U.S. Senator as none of the other candidates has emerged as “the” alternative.
Washington, like California last month, is a top two primary. With a total of twenty-nine candidates running for Senate, it will probably take less than 20% to finish second. Washington’s Third is winnable in November if a Democrat makes the top two but with four Democrats and three Republicans running, there is a chance of a Republican finishing second to the Republican incumbent. Similarly, with twelve total candidates and four Democrats and three Republicans running for Washington’s Eighth District (an open seat currently held by the Republicans), a weird split could cost Democrats a seat that they should win in November.
Hawaii’s primary is on August 11. There are competitive primaries on the Democratic side for Governor and for the First District.
On August 14, there are primaries in Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin. In Connecticut, the key primary is for governor. The out-going governor is somewhat unpopular. Thus, while the state is solidly Democrat, there is a chance that Republicans win the general election. In Minnesota, the big primary is the Governor’s race. While Democrats will hold the seat in November, the primary to fill the open seat in Minnesota’s Fifth could be interesting. Minnesota’s Eighth (another open seat caused by the incumbent running for state office) will be tough to hold as it leans Republican but the Democrats have a potentially competitive primary. In Wisconsin, there is a potentially competitive Republican primary for Senate and a potentially competitive Democratic primary for Governor. With Speaker Ryan retiring, both sides have interesting primaries in Wisconsin’s First.
On August 21, there are primaries in Alaska and Wyoming. In Alaska, the big race is the Republican primary for Governor. The current Governor is an independent, elected with the tacit support of the Democrats. There is a credible Democrat running for Governor, so it is unclear how the general election will play out. Wyoming has potentially competitive primaries on both sides.
On August 28, you have primaries in Arizona and Florida. In Arizona, the big race is the Republican Senate Primary featuring the “establishment” candidate (Representative Martha McSally) against two “outsider” candidates (Kelli Ward and Joe Arpaio). If either of the two outsider wins, Democrats should pick up this Senate seat in November. If Representative McSally wins, the November vote could be close. The Senate race is creating primaries for both parties in Arizona’s Second (currently held by Representative McSally) which could be winnable for Democrats in the fall. In Florida, the big primary is for Governor on both sides. Looking at the U.S. House races (and with over a month to go, it’s hard to tell what will develop), the races that currently look interesting are the open (Republican held) Sixth District with potentially competitive primaries on both sides, the Democratic primary in Florida’s Ninth (featuring an incumbent against a former representative), both primaries for the open (Republican held) Fifteenth District, and both primaries for the open (Republican held) Twenty-seventh District. These House primaries represent an opportunity for three Democratic gains in November if the Democrats get a good match-up. Oklahoma will also have run-offs for multiple offices.
In September, the last batch of states hold their primaries — Massachusetts on September 4, Delaware on September 6, New Hampshire on September 11, Rhode Island on September 12, and New York wraps it up with its state primaries on September 13. In Massachusetts, the big primary is the Democratic primary for the open Third District. In Delaware, the most competitive primary may be the open race for Attorney General. In New Hampshire, the focus is on both Congressional seats (both currently held by Democrats) which are swing seats. You have potentially competitive Republican primaries in both seats, and, with the First District being an open race, you also have a potentially competitive Democratic primary for that seat. In both Rhode Island and New York, the key primary seems to be for governor. In New York, the Attorney General’s race could also feature competitive primaries.
While I have focused on Congressional seats and state-wide races, there are a lot of important primaries for state legislative seats, particularly for state senate. In most states, whomever is elected to the state senate this fall will still be in the state legislature in 2021 and, thus, will have a vote in the next round of redistricting. However, these races tend to float under the national radar making it difficult to identify which state senate primaries (and even state senate general elections) are worthy of closer consideration. If interested in finding the key races in November, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee‘s website is a good place to start.
As we have seen this past two years, both at the federal level and at the state level, it matters which party is in the majority in the legislative branch and which party holds key state offices regardless of which party controls the White House. Congress can either be a patsy holding sham hearings designed more to frustrate efforts to get at the truth or it can be a champion for the issues that matter to the American people. State governments have the ability to aid federal efforts or to resist. And many key issues are actually decided in the halls of state legislatures rather than in Congress.
If you live in one of the states that still has a primary, please do your homework and find the best Democratic candidate in your district to support. Having run for local office in one of these states, I can state that canvassing for a summer primary is grueling on the candidate (stocking up on water is a must)and any volunteer assistance is very, very welcome. If your state has already held its primary, your local candidates will need help — both time and money — for the fall. Most important of all is that your vote matters to your local candidate. Local races can be decided by a very small number of votes.
