Tuesday night saw two very, very close elections. In a special election in a deep red U.S. House district in Ohio, the Democrat is currently trailing by about 1,500 votes before provisional and the remaining absentee ballots are counted. In the Republican primary for Governor, Secretary of State (Spawn of Satan) Kris Kobach is leading current Governor Jeff Colyer (who only recently replaced Sam Brownback as governor) by approximately 110 votes as mistakes in the numbers on the Secretary of State’s website are being corrected.
What comes next in both states is slightly different as the process of counting the votes is governed by state law. In both states, the current count does not include provisional votes — those cast by voters whose names were not on the precinct roll or who lacked proper ID — and late arriving absentee votes (as long as postmarked before the election). Kansas has a shorter time-frame for these issues. In Kansas, all absentee votes must arrive by the Friday after the primary and the counties will begin their official canvass — which includes counting all valid provisional and absentee votes this upcoming week (August 13-16). In Ohio, those who cast provisional ballots have until seven days after the primary (August 14) to submit supporting documentation (e.g., show up with valid ID) to their local election authority and any absentee ballot received by ten days after the primary (August 17) counts with the canvass beginning on the 18th.
Because Ohio has such a long time for absentee ballots to arrive, we still don’t know how many ballots we are dealing with in Ohio. We know that there are around 3,000 provisional ballots. We also know that there are over 5,000 people who applied for absentee ballots who did not return them by election day. How many of those 5,000 absentee ballots are in the mail is the unanswered question. Generally speaking, provisional ballots tend to lean Democratic but absentee ballots are more of a mixed bag. In Kansas, there were approximately 9,000 provisional ballots and current estimates are that around 6,000 of those provisional ballots are for the Republican primary. (As should not be surprising, about 3,500 of the 9,000 are in Sedgewick County — Wichita — and Johnson County — affluent suburban Kansas City with another 1,400 in Douglas — Lawrence/University of Kansas — and Shawnee — the state capitol of Topeka and Wyandotte — less affluent Kansas City suburbs. The next largest county has about 200 provisional ballots). I have not seen any count of absentee ballots.
The next step after the canvass is a potential recount. In Kansas, the law on recounts is something of a paradox. In the general election, a recount appears to be automatic if the margin is less than .5%. For the primary, however, a candidate has to request a recount and post a bond (refundable if the candidate wins the recount) to cover the cost. What is more significant is that the recount request needs to be made by the second Friday after the election (August 17) even though counties do not have to complete their official canvass until the following week (the last six counties are holding their canvass on the 20th and have approximately 220 provisional ballots). And if a recount is requested, the recount starts on the 18th and has to finish by the 22nd (so these six counties will be recounting the election day and early voting ballots in one room — or one part of the room — while looking at provisional and late absentee ballots in another room on the 20th assuming that a recount is requested). In Ohio, a recount is automatic if the final margin goes beneath .5% of the vote (approximately a margin of 1,010 given the current totals).
Will there be a recount in either state? Almost certainly in Kansas barring an unusual result from the provisional and absentee ballots over the next four days. While many states use the 0.5% threshold for a recount, a better rule (when candidates are having to pay for a recount) is probably around 0.1%. (In Minnesota, in 2008, the total swing was around 0.03%). Normally, in a recount, while it is possible to have a larger swing in a single precinct, those swings tend to balance each other out with one precinct benefitting candidate A and another precinct benefitting candidate B. Unless there is a systematic reason for one candidate being undercounted (and there are certain features of a recount that tend to increase the total number of Democratic votes), large swings are unlikely and the amount of the swing as a percentage of the total vote tends to get smaller as the vote total increases. With approximately 300,000 total votes cast in the Republican primary for governor — a margin of less than 100 could very well flip on a recount and any margin less than 500 should certainly be enough for the candidate trailing on Friday afternoon to request a recount. In Ohio, the question is how much do the provisional ballots alter the current count. Gaining 500 votes from 3,000 ballots is well within the realm of possibility. It is less likely that the recount will change the winner in Ohio’s 12th District, but it could result in a final margin that is even scarier for Republicans than the current margin (and delay Troy Balderson from taking his seat while the House is still in session).
Both of these elections, however, demonstrate how much every vote counts. Right now, the margin is approximately one vote per county in Kansas. In Ohio, the current margin is less than three voters per precinct. Folks like Kris Kobach have been working for the past decade to keep people who might oppose them from voting. The only way to stop them is to get people to vote.
On a side note, as a Democrat, I can’t figure who I want to emerge from the Kansas recount. On the one hand, if Kris Kobach wins the primary, the Democrats would have a fighting chance to win the governorship in Kansas. On the other hand, Kobach could still win the general, and it would be good for American democracy for Kobach’s anti-immigrant and anti-democracy career to be finished (although President Trump will probably try to find some post for Kobach in D.C. — Deputy A.G. maybe or Ambassador to some place that needs help suppressing the vote.)
