One weakness that the Democratic Party has had over the years is getting loosely attached Democratic voters to think beyond the current election. But many components of the political system elect members in staggered elections (e,g,, the U.S. Senate); so gaining the ability to pass your legislation requires a multi-year plan.
While in the weeks ahead, posts on this site will undoubtedly focus on the race for power in D.C., this post is about the other offices that will be on the ballot in November — state positions. In less than nineteen months, residents of the U.S. will receive and then return their census forms for the 2020 census. In slightly over two years, the Census Bureau will release the numbers from that census to the states which will then begin anew the process of drawing the political maps that will control U.S. House (and state legislative elections) between 2022 and 2031. And some of the people elected at the state level this November will still be around in 2021 to vote on these new maps.
The big office in most of the states is governor. There are 36 governor’s offices up for election this cycle with Republicans currently holding 26 of them. In 34 states, the term of office is four years; so the winner this year will be around in 2021. (In two states — New Hampshire and Vermont, both held by Republicans — the term of office is two years; so we will get another shot at removing the Republican in 2020 and only New Hampshire is likely to have multiple congressional seats after the 2020 census.) In some of these states — Arizona, California, and Iowa — the redistricting process minimizes the influence of the governor or legislature; so, while — for other reasons — holding California and picking up Arizona and Iowa would be useful, they will not have a big impact on redistricting in 2021. There are also some states that currently only have one representative in Congress eliminating the need for Congressional Districts — Alaska (Independent); South Dakota (Republican), and Wyoming (Republican). Even after eliminating these states, you have twenty states held by Republicans and eight states held by Democrats in which the winner of the 2018 election for governor will be around in 2021 and have the power to veto or sign any proposed congressional map.
In many states, there will also be a state senate election. There are three basic models for how states elect state senates. In twelve states, the term for state senators is two years. While it is always better to be the incumbent than the challenger, the winners in 2018 will have to run again in 2020. In twenty-seven states, the term is four years but the state has staggered elections. In these states, half of the state senators are up for election this year and the winner will still be in office (barring some reason for leaving office early) for the 2021 redistricting process. Finally, there are eleven states in which the term is four years but all senators run at the same time. Of these last eleven states, three (Alabama, Maryland, and Michigan) are on this year’s ballot, and the winners will still be around in 2021.
Looking at the individual states on the ballot, there are several key states. Going in alphabetical order, the first key one is Colorado. There is currently a Democratic governor, but the seat is an open seat in this election due to term limits. The Republicans currently have a narrow 18-16 advantage in the state senate with one independent with half the seats on November’s ballot. Colorado has seven congressional seats (currently three Democrats and four Republicans) but is currently likely to pick up an eighth seat in 2020. If Democrats control redistricting, the new lines should be at least 4-4 if not 5-3 in favor of the Democrats. If Republicans control redistricting, the lines will probably be 5-3 in favor of Republicans.
The biggest state in which Democrats have a realistic chance is Florida. With current governor Health Care Fraud running for U.S. Senator as the Republican nominee, the seat is open and the Republicans have opted for a Trump apologist as their nominee. The Republicans currently as a result of very gerrymandered lines drawn in 2011 have a 16-11 advantage in the Florida delegation, and Florida is projected to gain two new seats. This year, half of the state senate is up for election and Republicans have a 23-16 majority with one vacancy. If Democrats can pick up two or three seats this year, they would have a chance at gaining control of the state senate in 2020.
Georgia is one of the states with two-year state senate terms but the governor’s seat (currently held by Republicans) is up for grabs. While Georgia leans Republican, the Democratic nominee, Stacey Abrams, has a chance at pulling off the upset as the Republicans opted to go hard right in their pick. The Republicans currently have a 10-4 advantage in the Congressional Delegation. With a Democratic governor giving us a seat at the table, that split would probably go to 8-6 or 9-5.
Another big prize up for grabs is Illinois where the Republican incumbent governor is very vulnerable. Half of the state senate is also up for grabs. Democrats currently have an 11-7 advantage in the congressional delegation but Illinois is likely to lose one seat. Who wins this year could determine which party gives up a seat in 2021.
Kansas is a bit of a sleeper. The current lines are drawn to have two lean Republican seats in the KC suburbs. The good news of such lines is that Democrats have an outside shot at winning two seats, the bad news is that Democrats typically end up with no seats (the current situation). It is clearly possible to draw lines to create a 3-1 split. After a close primary election, the Republicans nominated Spawn of Satan Kris Kobach over the “incumbent” governor giving the Democrats a chance to pick up this seat.
The Republican governor in Maryland is favored to win re-election. While the state is solidly Democratic, that probably means that the current 7-1 split in the Democrats favor in Congress will revert back to its past 6-2 split.
Michigan is another state that Republicans grossly gerrymandered in 2011 giving them a 9-5 advantage in the Congressional delegation from a lean Democrat state. Besides an open governor’s seat (with good chances for a Democratic gain), the full state senate is on the ballot this year. The Republicans have a solid majority in the state senate; so the real Democratic goal this year is to win enough seats to sustain a veto and force the Republicans to negotiate over fair lines, particularly as the state is likely to lose a seat in 2020.
In Minnesota, the governor’s seat is an open race (currently held by Democrats) with no state senate seats on this year’s ballot. The Democrats currently have a 5-3 advantage in the congressional delegation but some of the seats currently held by the Democrats actually lean Republican. With the state likely to lose a seat, it would not be too difficult for Republicans to draw a map that would solidify 4-3 Republican advantage.
Another big state is Ohio. Like in Michigan, a Republican governor is stepping down and things are looking promising for the Democrats to take the governor’s mansion. Like in Michigan, the 2011 lines are lopsided giving the Republicans a 12-4 advantage in a toss-up state and the state is likely to lose a seat in 2020. Unlike in Michigan, only half of the state senate is on the ballot this year. However, as in Michigan, the state senate lines are drawn in such a way as to all but guarantee a Republican majority and the real goal is to gain enough seats to be able to sustain a veto.
In Pennsylvania, the courts struck down a lopsided map earlier this year, but in 2021 the Republicans will certainly try again. If the Democrats can hold the governor’s seat in this year’s election that will be a much harder task for Republicans. Half of the state senate seats are up for election this year. As in Michigan and Pennsylvania, the state senate map favors the Republicans but the current numbers are right on the line for being able to sustain a veto. Picking up one or two of the twenty-five seats on this year’s ballot would certainly help. Pennsylvania looks likely to lose one of its eighteen seats in congress after the 2020 census.
Finally, there is Wisconsin. Another great example of Republican gerrymandering in 2011. And Democrats have a real chance at retiring Scott Walker. The Republicans have a narrow lead of 18-15 in the state senate. With half of the seats up for election, Democrats could easily be in control of the state senate in 2021. Picking up one or two seats this time would increase those chances.
While as discussed in past columns on gerrymandering, the Republicans do have some geographic advantages due to self-sorting of voters, but the current median district has a Partisan Vote Index that is an R+3. That means that Democrats need over 53% of the national popular vote for House to be favored to take a majority in the House. We need to work hard over the next four years to get fairer lines so that having the support of the majority of Americans is enough for Democrats to have the majority in the U.S. House. This November’s races at the state level can be a good down payment on that effort if we do well in all of these states.
