There is an old joke about Pennsylvania that (at least politically) it is Pittsburgh and Philadelphia with Alabama in the middle. The same joke, in many ways, can be made about the five southern states that border the Atlantic Coast, particularly Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. All three states are divided between regions that very much resemble the Democratic areas in the Northeast and Pacific Coast, and regions that are very much still the rural South. These divisions have made all three states very purplish at the state level and have made the drawing of district lines very crucial to the race for Congress.
Starting with Virginia, Tim Kaine has a solid lead against the Confederate Republican nominee Corey Stewart. The real battle in Virginia will be for House seats. Democrats currently hold four seats (out of eleven seats). Democrats are currently looking at taking anywhere between one and four seats. The key to Democratic growth in Virginia has been the D.C. suburbs and the Republican disrespect for any type of expertise. These districts are a model of how Trump is driving moderate Republicans to the Democratic Party.
In North Carolina, Republicans in the state legislature have stated that the current map was drawn as it is (a 10-3 Republican advantage) because it was impossible to draw a map that would have allowed the Republicans to reliably win eleven seats. While the local federal court struck down the current map less than two months ago, there was not enough time to redraw the lines for this year (and the Supreme Court would probably have intervened if the judges had tried). Fighting against this stacked deck, the Democrats have a decent shot at one seat due to Republican divisions in that district (the incumbent lost in the Republican primary). There are two other districts were, with good results, the Democrats might be able to pick up the seat. Like Virginia, North Carolina is another state where the hostility of the Republican Party to basic science is driving college educated votes associated with is research corridor into the Democratic Party.
South Carolina is the one state in this region that is still reliably Republican. The current Republican governor is likely to win re-election. The Republicans are likely to keep all six seats that they currently hold, although Democrats do have an outside chance to take the First District (where Mark Sanford lost in the primary).
In Georgia, the big race is for Governor where Secretary of State Brian Kemp has engaged in tactics that would make most dictators blush. He was caught over this weekend commenting that, if Democrats actually vote, he would have trouble winning. He has tried to defend his actions trying to impose barriers to people voting by comparing it to ads trying to persuade Republicans not to support him. A key factor in this race is that Georgia requires an actual majority in the general election. Georgia is the only state that uses a true run-off in its general election. (Other states use variations on the jungle primary.) There is a very good chance that third party candidates will win enough votes to force a run-off. Like in South Carolina, the most likely result in the Congressional races is the status quo. There is an outside chance that Democrats could force run-off in the Sixth and Seventh Districts.
Florida is the big state in the region — both in terms of the raw number of seats and in the potential for change. It would be easy to divide Florida into two states — one solidly Republican and one solidly Democratic — by drawing an east-west line somewhere down the middle of the state. This year, it looks like Democrats have narrow leads in the race for Governor (currently held by Republican health care crook and Senate candidate Rick Scott) and in the race for U.S. Senate. Of course, the state is still recovering from the recent hurricane which could impact turnout making the polls less reliable than normal. As in many other purple states in which Republicans controlled redistricting, the U.S. House delegation is somewhat lopsided with Republicans holding a 16-11 advantage currently. However, the very features that allow the Republicans to win those seats when the state-wide vote is close to 50-50 make them vulnerable to a blue wave. The Democrats should gain at least one seat although anything between the status quo and a seven seat gain is within the realm of possibility.
There are several major ballot issues on the ballot. In Florida, you have issues that could favor both parties. On the one hand, Florida could pass a constitutional amendment relaxing its current very strict restrictions on ex-felons voting and another amendment that bars offshore drilling. On the other hand, Florida could pass amendments requiring a super-majority for tax increases and prohibiting courts from deferring to administrative agencies.
In North Carolina, the Republican legislature has stacked the ballot with provisions designed to reduce the power of the governor and other conservative wish list proposals including: a right to fish and hunt, a cap on the maximum income tax, requiring photo ID to vote, placing the power to appoint local election officials in the legislature, and giving the legislature a role in judicial appointments.
Looking at the region as a whole, the election’s reflect the power of redistricting. Democrats could get the majority state-wide in three or four of the states and yet only gain three seats. On the other hand, with a very good night, Democrats could gain seventeen seats. Turnout will be key.
