The South is probably the region in which there are the fewest competitive races in the country. The extreme gerrymandering in these states means that outside of Texas, competitive House races are practically non-existent.
Starting with Alabama, while the governor’s mansion and seven U.S. House seats are on the ballot, none of these races currently look close. This should not be a surprise to anybody. While Doug Jones was winning the U.S. Senate seat in a close race last year, he only carried one of the Alabama’s seven congressional districts. With Republican incumbents running in the six districts that Roy Moore carried and none of them a known bigoted pervert, Democrats are not expected to win any of these seats. Despite the corruption that led to the prior Republican governor resigning, and Kay Ivey taking over last year, the expectation is that Kay Ivey will hold the seat by a comfortable margin.
In Mississippi, the Republicans hold a 3-1 advantage in U.S. House seats now and there is no reason to expect that to change after the election. There are two Senate races on the ballot. In the regular election, Republican Roger Wicker should be re-elected. The interest race is the special election. Like some other states, Mississippi holds a “jungle primary” (really a general election with a potential run-off) in which all candidates from all parties run against each other. Barring a major surprise, this race is headed to a run-off. And, while Mike Espy is likely to make the run-off, he is unlikely to get his preferred opponent. There is always a chance that in a lower turnout run-off that Mike Espy might defy expectations and win this seat, but — if this seat becomes important in light of the other results on election day — the money that would pour into Mississippi would make that difficult.
In Tennessee, the House delegation is likely to stay the same — seven Republicans and two Democrats. The races of interest in Tennessee are the U.S. Senate race and the Governor’s race. Both are winnable, but — at the present time — it looks like the Republicans are ahead. Like the race in West Virginia, the Democratic candidate might not be the type of candidate that we would run in New York or California, but he does have a shot at winning the seat which would help put the Democrats in charge of the floor agenda in the Senate rather than letting Mitch McConnell call the shots.
In Arkansas, it looks likely that Republicans will stay in control of the Governor’s mansion. The Republicans currently hold all four U.S. House seats and the only one that Democrats even have an outside shot at winning is the Third District (the Little Rock area).
Louisiana is the only state that actually uses a “jungle” primary for regular elections to federal offices. All six U.S. House districts have three or more candidates meaning that it is possible that any of the seats could go to a run-off. The most likely district to have a run-off is the Third District, but it is by no means guaranteed that the Democratic candidate will finish second. Even if the Democrat does make that run-off, the Republicans would be strongly favored in the run-off. At the end of the day, expect the delegation to remain five Republicans and one Democrat.
That leaves Texas — the big enchilada. Republicans seem likely to keep the Governor’s mansion. And, while Beto O’Rourke has kept the race close, most polls show him trailing by 5-10%. Of course, turnout models could be wrong, and Beto could end Ted Cruz’s political career. If Beto wins (or even makes it close), that could impact the U.S. House races. Currently, the Republicans have a 25-11 advantage in the Texas Congressional delegation. The Democratic candidate is a slight favorite in one district (the Seventh), but have decent chances in the Thirty-second and outside chances in eight others. Thus a Democratic wave could bring Texas close to an 18-18 split.
The referendums on the ballot show the hard fight that Democrats have to become competitive in these states. In Alabama, one referendum would authorize the posting of the Ten Commandments on public property while another would restrict abortion. In Arkansas, there is a referendum seeking to require photo ID, but there is also a referendum to increase the minimum wage.
In short, gaining seats in the South is going to be a hard struggle. We have outside chances, but we really need a strong get out the vote effort to win those seats.
