The Great Lakes region has some opportunities for Democrats, but those opportunities are mostly in races for Governor due to the way that Republicans in the region drew congressional district lines after 2010.
Starting in Kentucky, there is no race for Governor or Senator. Republicans currently have a five to one advantage in the congressional delegation. Right now, Democrat Amy McGrath is a slight favorite to pick-up the Sixth District from the Republican incumbent.
In Ohio, it looks like the Democrats are in pretty good shape to hold its Senate seat. The race for Governor appears to be too close to call. Ohio is another state where gerrymandering has led to a very distorted congressional delegation. Republicans currently hold twelve of sixteen seats. The Democrats have a decent shot (but are still underdogs) in the rematch of the recent special election in the Twelfth District. The Democrats have outside shots in five districts, but it is almost certain that, even while possibly losing the state-wide vote, Republicans will control the majority of the Ohio seats in the next Congress.
Indiana is another reddish-purple states where it will be necessary for progressive Democrats to vote for a candidate who will not always be there on every vote in the Senate but will allow the Democrats to control the floor agenda (if they can get the majority). Right now Senator Joe Donnelly is favored to win re-election, but just barely. Republicans control seven of nine seats, and Democrats have an outside chance at picking up one seat.
The 2010 elections gave the Republicans control of Michigan with serious consequences for the residents of places like Flint. It also led to a very gerrymandered map. In 2018, it looks like Democrats will take back the Governor’s mansion and keep the U.S. Senate seat. And there are some good chances in House races. Republicans currently hold nine of the fourteen seats. Democrats are favored to gain two seats. Democrats also have chances (very good chances in one, in a little longer in the others) in four other seats. Picking up two seats in Michigan and winning the race for Governor would represent what should happen if the Democrats are to get a simple majority in the House, but — if the Democrats gain four or five seats in Michigan — the odds are that we are liking at a sizable majority in the House and maybe even a majority in the Senate.
Wisconsin is another state that elected a Republican Governor in 2010 and has had to deal with anti-worker policies ever since. It looks like Democrats are likely to end the reign of Scott Walker and hold the Senate seat. The House is more difficult thanks to the gerrymandered district lines which give the Republicans a six-two majority. The Democrats have outside shots in two districts including the seat being vacated by “retiring” Speaker Paul Ryan in the First District.
Lastly, there is Illinois. Democrats are expected to easily win the race for Governor, retaking the position. Democrats currently hold eleven of the eighteen House seats. The Democrats are slight underdogs in the Sixth District, and have decent chances to gain three other districts.
In addition to the races on the ballot, this region does have some interesting referendums, many in response to the Republican vote-suppressing and gerrymandering tactics of the past decade in these states. Earlier this year, Ohio adopted a redistricting reform package. The November elections will feature a similar proposal in Michigan. Michigan also has a package of voting reforms which will include same day registration and no-excuse absentee voting. Finally, Michigan has a proposal to legalize recreational marijuana.
In short, Democrats should have a net gain of two to four in the races for Governor, but are only favored to take three Congressional seats. There are, however, fifteen other seats that could flip in a wave. The real good news is that — despite Trump doing very well in these states in 2016 — the Democrats are solid favorites to hold four of their five Senate seats. The fifth race in Indiana is a little closer (and is one of the states that could flip, ensuring a Republican Senate majority) but Democrats are still favored to win. The proposals in Michigan could make things easier for Democrats in that state in future elections.
