Like the South (and the northern part of the Rocky Mountain region), this area of the country has been trending Republican, but there are some opportunities for Democratic gains.
Minnesota might be the weirdest state in the country this year. Democrats are in good shape to hold both U.S. Senate seats that are on the ballot and will probably also win the race for Governor to keep that seat. Four of the House seats in Minnesota could change hands — two currently held by the Democrats and two currently held by the Republicans. A significant part of the Second and Third Districts contain the suburbs of the Twin Cities, and Democrats could pick up both seats over Republican incumbents. The First and Eighth Districts are open seats as the Democratic incumbents tried to run for state office. Both are mostly rural districts with the Eighth also featuring some declining industry making them good targets for Republican wins. Thus, in nine days, Minnesota could be anything from 7-1 in favor of the Democrats to 5-3 in favor of the Republicans.
In Iowa, all of the districts except the Fourth District (Western Iowa) are designed to be swing districts. In good years for the Republicans, those seats go Republican. In good years for the Democrats, those seats go Democratic. Right now Republicans have a 3-1 edge, but Democrats are favored to take both the First and Third. Democrats also are favored to win the race for Governor.
Missouri features some of the weirdest shaped congressional districts in the county (the dead lizard Fifth District and the claw shapes of the Third and Fourth Districts). The two closest seats are the D+7 Fifth District and the R+8 Second District. After Republicans drew these lines in 2011, Democrats hoped that, by 2018 or 2020, the Second District might become close enough to be winnable. Maybe if Ann Wagner had run for the Senate, the Democrats might have been favored to win an open seat, but she didn’t. With Representative Wagner running for re-election, Democrats still have an outside chance at winning the district, but it will take strong turnout in the Democratic parts of St. Louis County. While Representative Wagner deciding to stick in the House is helping the Republicans keep their 6-2 majority in House seats, it is almost certainly hurting them in the Senate race as Attorney General Josh Hawley has proven to be an underwhelming candidate. To make up for his deficiencies, Republican Super PACS have been pouring money into the State for the past twenty months. If I hear one more ad from Mitch McConnell’s PAC claiming to know what Missouri values are and alleging that Claire is part of the Republican establishment, I will literally scream. Democratic groups have done a decent job of emphasizing AG Hawley’s actions undermining pre-existing condition coverage at the same time that he says he is for requiring insurance companies to cover pre-existing conditions. At the present time, the best bet is for the status quo. Because St. Louis County is a key part of the state, however, there is some linkage between the Senate race and the House race. If Representative Wagner wins by double digits, the Republicans could pick up the Senate seat. If Representative Wagner loses, Clair should win the Senate seat by a comfortable margin.
Oklahoma is a very red state. Even in wave election year, Democrats tend to have slim chances at best. At R+10, the Fifth District is the closest in the state, and Democrats have an outside chance of picking it up. The Governor’s race is also winnable, but it is definitely a long shot.
There are three political parties in Kansas — the Democrats, traditional moderate and conservative Republicans, and far right Republicans. When the Republican Party goes off the rails, Democrats can win races in Kansas. In 2011, Republicans opted to “crack” the Democratic regions of the state (the state capital, the University of Kansas, and the Kansas City suburbs) between the Second and Third Districts. While that leaves all four districts favoring Republicans, it does give the Democrats a chance to win both districts in Democratic years. Right now, it seems like the Democrats will win in the Third District and the Second District is too close to call. The race in the Second District might depend on how many students at the University of Kansas have registered to vote at college and how many are voting absentee back home. The race for Governor may come down to how well the Independent candidate does and whom he takes votes from. Right now, the polls are showing a dead heat between Spawn of Satan Kris Kobach and Democrat Laura Kelly, but the independent Greg Orman is polling at around 10%. Third party candidates who are trailing by a significant amount tend to have some fall off as the general election approaches. Since Orman is probably getting a lot of his support from Republicans who hate Kobach but would rather not vote for a Democrat, the question is whether these voters will hold their noses and vote for Kobach or find their way to vote for a Democrat.
Nebraska has races for Governor and Senate, but the incumbent Republicans look pretty safe. As always, the Democrats have decent chances in the Second District (Omaha area). In 2011, the Republicans drew the lines to make this district slightly more favorable to them, There haven’t been a lot of polls in this district, but it looks like the Republicans are slightly ahead. This is one of the districts where primary voters (opting for a slightly less well-known and more progressive candidate) may have made the task just a little too hard for the blue team.
South Dakota has races for Governor and its single Congressional seat. The Democrats have an outside shot at winning the race for governor and taking that position away from the Republicans. The House seat is probably out of reach.
In North Dakota, the big race is the U.S. Senate seat. Senator Heidi Heitkamp is a perfect example of the problem facing Democrats in red states. While she has not been 100% reliable for Democrats in the Senate, she has probably voted the party line more often that is safe for a candidate in such a state. Republicans are doing their best to stack the deck against her with voting rules designed to make it difficult for Native Americans to vote (their tribal IDs do not meet the new requirements). If there is a strong Native vote, Senator Heitkamp might barely survive. If tribal turnout is depressed, the Republicans could take this seat. The single House seat seems likely to stay Republican.
On the referendum side, Missouri has a slew of issues on the ballot. There is an ethics reform proposal that includes limits on campaign financing and new rules for redistricting designed to prevent gerrymandering in state legislative races. There is also a proposal to increase the state minimum wage over a period of years to $12. There are three competing “medical” marijuana proposals. In Nebraska, there is a proposal for Medicaid expansion. North Dakota has an ethics reform package and a “recreational” marijuana proposal. South Dakota has an ethics reform package and a series of proposals trying to make it harder for voters to propose and approve constitutional amendments (not surprisingly, those restrictions were proposed by the state legislature).
In short, progressive groups have managed to get some referendums on the ballot which should help Democrats win some close races, but there are not that many winnable races. Democrats have good chances to win six House races, and have outside shots at two others. On the other hand, Republicans have decent chances at winning two House seats. Additionally, Republicans are favored to gain one U.S. Senate seat and could win a second. If Democrats are to have any shot at winning control of the Senate, they need to hold at least one seat in this region. If the Democrats can have a net gain of five or more House seats in this region, the Democrats should gain control of the House. If the net gain is only one, the chances of gaining control of the House will shrink substantially.
