While it’s not an exact East-West line, the Rocky Mountain region has seen a lot of change in recent years. While not the same in every state, the southern part of the region has trended a little more toward the Democrats while the northern part has, maybe, gotten even redder.
In Montana, we have a weird combination of races. For Senate, even with President Trump firing with both barrels due to Senator Tester shooting down Trump’s misguided cronyism at the Department of Veteran’s Affair, Senator Tester seems to have a somewhat comfortable lead in the Senate race. On the other hand, WWE-wannabe Greg Gianforte seems to be holding on (by a less comfortable margin) in the U.S. House race.
In Wyoming, the Democrats really have very little chance at picking up any of the races. A successful outcome would be holding the Republicans beneath 55% in any of the three main races.
Colorado is moving from purple to lean Democrat. It looks like Jared Polis has a solid lead in the race for governor. Right now, the Republicans have four of the seven house seats. It looks like the Democrats are likely to gain at least one seat (Sixth District) and are only slight underdogs to gain a second seat (Third District).
New Mexico like Colorado is gradually becoming blue. The mid-term environment allowed the Republicans to win the race for Governor in 2010 and 2014, but, with an open seat this time, it looks very likely to be a Democratic pick-up. And with two Congressmen running for governor, the Democrats are solid favorites to hold their two seats and a very narrow underdog to sweep the state and pick-up the Republicans only seat.
Arizona is the big question mark of the election. Once the bastion of traditional conservatism, the Republican Party has had to try to skirt the fence between traditional Republicanism and the new far right nationalism represented by Trump. This impossible task has created an open Senate seat when Jeff Flake saw the tea leaves on the wall for the Republican primary. While not a sure thing (as the Republicans are throwing every piece of dirt along with the kitchen sink), Arizona is the best opportunity right now for the Democrats to gain a Senate seat. On the other hand, the incumbent Governor seems to have threaded the needle and should win re-election barring a very strong Hispanic turnout. Arizona’s House delegation is currently 5-4 in favor of the Republicans. However, the Democrats are likely to flip that by picking up the Second District. There are two longer shots. The interesting story in Arizona is the Fourth District where the Republican candidate is so outrageous that his own family has cut ads against him. Unfortunately, that district is so red that Satan himself could win running as a Republican.
Moving north, Utah is the home of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints, and the church has a large influence over state politics. The Mormons have had some trouble with Trump’s unrepentant bigotry and sexism. (Not that the Church itself has not had a history of having trouble with those issues, but it has made effort to improve its language if not its practices.) It looks like the Republicans will be sending Mitt Romney to the Senate to pester Trump. In the House, the Republicans drew the district lines to split the Democratic strength in the Salt Lake City area into two districts. Even with lines favoring Republicans, the Democrats are slight favorites to take the Fourth District back (which would give them a grand total of one seat in Utah).
Everything is on the line in Nevada. In the Summer of 2017, Senator Dean Heller looked like the most vulnerable Senate Republican. Unlike Senator Flake, Senator Heller managed to have state leaders convince potential primary challengers to find another race. Nevada is really two states. You have three districts in the southern half of the state (all taking in part of the Las Vegas area) and one district covering the northern half of the state. The Democrats currently control all three of the Las Vegas area seats (some by narrow margins) and the Republicans dominate the rest of the state. The Congressional delegation seems likely to stay the same. On the other hand, both of the state-wide races are too close to call with Republicans having a narrow lead. Again, this race is likely to come down to turnout. If the hotel unions in Las Vegas can get their members to vote, Democrats might sweep at the state level. If not, the Republicans will likely escape by the skin of their teeth. The Senate race is the second best chance for a Democratic gain, and it is hard to see how we get to 51 without winning Nevada. It’s possible, just not likely.
Finally, there is Idaho. Two House seats and the Governor’s race. All currently held by Republicans. Getting to 40% in any of the races would be a moral victory for Democrats.
Looking at referendums, Arizona has two interesting referendums that are likely to boost turnout on both sides. On the one hand, there is a proposal to prevent future tax hikes on services. On the other hand, there is a proposal to require Arizona to have renewable energy represent 50% of the state’s energy by 2030. Colorado has a slew of referendums including changes to campaign finance law, establishing redistricting commissions, and limits on fracking. Idaho does have a Medicaid expansion proposition as does Montana. Montana also has a proposal to limit who can collect ballots. (I don’t know if this is a problem in Montana, but it is in some parts of the country where some political organizations pressure voters to apply for and mail in absentee ballots for the organization’s candidates.) Nevada has a renewable energy proposition as well as a motor voter proposal. Utah has a trifecta of progressive proposals — Medicaid expansion, medical marijuana, and a redistricting commission.
In short, this region has only a handful of Democratic pick-up opportunities in the House — two probable and maybe two or three others. On the other hand, it does have two potential pick-ups in Governor races, and three key Senate races with a potential net gain of two Senate seats for the Democrats which are key to the Democrat’s chance at winning control of the Senate.
