After starting in the Northeast with Maine. we finally reach the West Coast. Given the number of Congressional seats in California, the West Coast will be a key part of any Democratic majority in the U.S. House. The bad news, however, is that there are so few Republican seats left here (approximately 20 seats total), that the gains will be rather minimal as a percentage of the total seats available (71 seats).
In Washington, it looks like Democrats will keep the U.S. Senate seat by a comfortable margin. In the House, Washington is one of two states (California being the other) with a top-two primary. In practical terms, that creates the possibility that both candidates could be Democrats, both candidates could be Republican, or that the second candidate is an independent or third-party candidate. Of the ten seats in Washington, Republicans were shut out of the general election in two seats, leaving eight seats where a Republican will face a Democrat. Republicans currently hold four seats. Right now, the Democrats are slight favorites in the Eighth, underdogs in the Third, and have an outside chance in the Fifth (currently held by the highest ranking Republican woman in Congress, Cathy McMorris Rogers).
In Oregon, the Democratic governor is a slight favorite in her bid for re-election but this race is too close for comfort. Democrats control four of the five U.S. House seats in Oregon, but the one Republican seat is so red that it is unlikely that the Democrats will win that seat.
In California, the top two system has resulted in a significant number of races in which one of the two parties was shut out of the general election. At the top of the ballot, the U.S. Senate race features two Democrats. Incumbent Senator Diane Feinstein looks likely to be re-elected. She has done just enough to keep enough Democrats happy, and there are enough Republicans in the state to make it hard to win running to her left. While the Republicans did manage to get a general election candidate in the race for Governor, a good result would be for their candidate to break 40%. In the U.S. House, the Republicans were shut out in eight districts — three of which will feature two Democrats (Sixth, Twenty-seventh, and Forty-fourth) and five of which will feature a Democrat and an independent or third party candidate (Fifth, Thirteenth, Twentieth, Thirty-Fourth, and Fortieth). However, the Republicans were long shots in all of these districts. The Democrats only got shut out in one district which will be a Republican vs. Republican general election, but it was one which the Democrats would have had a shot at winning (Eighth). Besides the Eighth, Republicans hold thirteen seats in which they will face a Democrat in the general election. Democrats are strong favorites in three of these seats and slight favorites in four others. There are three other seats in which Democrats have a decent shot at pulling an upsets.
In Hawaii, Democrats currently control everything, both Senate seats, the Governor’s mansion, and both U.S. House seats. In the four races on the ballot (all but one Senate seat), Democrats are solid favorites.
That leaves Alaska. Alaska is one of those interesting paradox. While it is in actuality the most socialist state in the U.S. (earning enough revenue from control over natural resources to not only fund the state government but also give each resident a significant annual stipend), that allows its voters and politicians to otherwise follow very conservative policies. Like some other red states, Democrats require the Republicans to overreach and go too far to the right (or be personally unpopular) for the Democrats to have much of a chance. The current governor is an independent, but he has quasi-withdrawn (technically still on the ballot) and endorsed the Democratic candidate. That should make the election somewhat close, but the Republican is still favored to regain the governor’s mansion. Representative Don Young has represented Alaska for most of the time that it has been a state (since 1973). His age (and questionable practices) has made him somewhat vulnerable in recent cycles (getting just over 50% in three of the last five races), but Democrats have not been able to close the deal yet (with a significant percent of voters supporting third-party candidates). Once again, it looks like Representative Young will be near 50% (and maybe even below 50%) but the question is whether the Democratic candidate can pull together all the votes from people who think it is time to have a new representative. Helping is the fact that there are no other candidates actually on the ballot, but there are two write-in candidates.
Looking at referendums, California, as always, has a handful of issues. The most significant is an attempt by Republicans to repeal recent gas tax increases that help pay for transportation. The problem for Republicans is that most voters recognize the need for that transportation spending. Thus, this referendum may actually backfire on them. Recent polling is split, but is trending against the proposal. Washington has three significant propositions. One establishes additional training requirements for law enforcement officers and would restrict their ability to use force during arrests. Another establishes a carbon tax. The last enacts a series of reasonable gun control measures (waiting period, background check, raising minimum age to twenty-one,
Looking at the region overall, because Democrats already control most of the U.S. Senate seats (all but the two in Alaska that are not on the ballot this year) and most of the Governor’s mansions (except for the independent in Alaska), this region will not see much change in those offices except for either a Democrat or Republican replacing the independent in Alaska. Out of the twenty U.S. House seats currently controlled by Republicans, Democrats should win approximately eight seats, and could win as many as fourteen seats. As with the other regions, turnout is the key to turning a significant gain into a big wave in the U.S. House.
With five days left until votes are counted (or at least the counting starts given the increasing reliance in this region on mail-in ballots), this post is the last of the regional summaries. Over the weekend, I intend to make at least one (maybe more) posts on what to look for as results come in to estimate if the Democrats will take the House and what will happen with the Senate.
