There are two major factors that drive the reporting of results on election night. First, the U.S. is one of the few countries with a significant East-West width. This fact, combined with state autonomy, means that, unlike a Germany or United Kingdom, we have staggered poll closing times (ranging from 6 p.m. EST in parts of Kentucky and Indiana to 1 a.m. EST in parts of Alaska). Second, even with recent improvement in vote counting technology, there is (even with the same state) delays in reporting results that lead to precinct results being released throughout the evening due to: 1) processing all the people who were in line to vote at the official poll closing time; 2) getting the electronic vote counting devices from the individual precincts to the county/parish/township counting center; 3) downloading all of those devices into the counting center’s computer (obviously more precincts in urban counties = longer to download all of the data); and 4) reporting those results to the media and the state election authority.
Given that it takes hours to get near full counts (and days or weeks to get full counts), the news media uses “cheats” to project races as early as possible. The two main cheats are somewhat related. First, at least for state-wide races in state’s expected to be crucial, the media conducts exit polls at key precincts. (These precincts are chosen to provide enough of all key demographic groups based on past voting history, along with weighting formulas based on past history adjusted by reweighting based on actual turnout.) Second, the media relies on past history as far as how the parties have performed in counties and precincts in the past. (The media has the advantage of having all of the relevant data pre-digested.) For both “cheats,” the question is how the early reporting precincts differ from what is expected. If the exit polls show the Republicans “underperforming” in rural precincts by three percent, and the early precincts show a similar result in those precincts those results “confirms” that the exit polls are close. Similarly, in a D+5 state, if the early results show that Democratic candidate is doing 5% better than the norm for those precincts in that state, that is a pretty good sign that the Democratic candidate is going to win. Because most average people lack the media’s ease of access to this data, we are sort of in the position of having to reverse engineer things.
For the most part, there is no need to pay close attention before 9:00 p.m. EST. Nine states (ten if you count Florida which is mostly closed at 7:00 p.m. EST) are closed before 8:00 p.m. EST. And, for the reason noted above, it takes about an hour before a decent share of precincts start reporting. (In some states, early vote results get released pretty quickly after the polls close, but you still need enough time to get a concept of how many people voted on election day and how much election day results seem to differ from early voting). The 2016 election gave us a good clue on what we should be looking for — particularly given that we are looking at 435 individual house districts, 35 Senate seats, and 36 governor’s races. In 2016, at the start of the evening, there were a significant number of states that were close enough that the media waited before calling. However, as the evening progressed, the lean Republican states were being called for Trump while the lean Democratic states stayed to close to call.
Translating this history to 2018, most of the focus as of 9:00 p.m. EST should be on the Senate races. Polls will have been closed for three hours in most of Indiana (and Kentucky), two hours in Florida, and ninety minutes in West Virginia. If the Democrats are doing well, all three of those states will already have been called for the incumbent Democrat in the Senate. In addition, if the Democrats are doing well, the Governor’s race may already have been called for Andrew Gillum. On the other hand, if these races are still too close to call, and the Republicans have already picked up Tennessee (polls only closed for an hour) and have held the Governor’s mansion in Georgia and Ohio, Republicans will be in good shape to keep the Senate and might even have gained the House. Because there is less likely to be exit polls for the House races and not enough precincts to allow projections in most House races, there will be few close House races called by this time. Of the key House seats, the most likely to be called by this time is Kentucky Sixth (which will have three hours worth of results). The Republicans are slight favorites to keep this seat; so if it is still too close to call or has been called for the Democrats, that would be a good sign. Similarly, polls will have been closed long enough (ninety minutes to two hours) that we might have projections in Florida Fifteen, Florida Twenty-Five, Florida, Twenty-Six, Florida Twenty-seven, Virginia Five, Virginia Seven, Virginia Ten, North Carolina Nine, Ohio Twelve, and West Virginia Three. These districts range from likely pick-ups in Florida Twenty-seven and Virginia Ten to a long shot in West Virginia Three. If Democrats have gained more than two of these seats and most of the rest have not yet been projected, Democrats will almost certainly have a House majority when all is said and done. If Republicans have several holds and the Democrats have no pick-ups, it might be a long evening.
Over the next two hours, the pace of projections should gradually increase. By 11:00 p.m. EST, most of the states on the east coast should be projected. The Republicans are only seen as having good chances at gaining two districts, both in Minnesota (which will have been closed for two hours). On the other hand, the Democrats have good chances at gaining two seats in Minnesota. At this point in time, how many of these four districts have been projected — and which ones — will be a good indicator of how the evening will ultimately turnout. Other than North Dakota and Montana (most of the “at risk” Democratic Senate seats will have been closed for two hours. If the Democrats have managed to hold (or have leads) in these nine states, Democrats might just have a chance at getting to 51 seats — particularly if they are winning states like Indiana, Florida, West Virginia, and Missouri comfortably. Additionally, with heavy early voting and the polls having been closed for two hours, Arizona might have been projected. So are Democrats at plus one in the Senate or minus two or three? Overall, what is the Democratic net in the House. If the Democrats are over twenty seats, the Democrats have enough likely gains in the west that the race for the House is effectively over. If the Democrats have actually lost some of the approximately twenty seats that they are currently favored to pick-up and the Republicans are keeping the maybe districts, then the Republicans might keep control of the House. Finally, we should have projections in most of the close races for governor other than Alaska, Iowa, Nevada, and Oregon. Are the Democrats picking up states like Florida, Kansas, Maine, and Ohio? And, four hours after the polls have closed, what is happening in Georgia (a winner, a run-off, or waiting for the last precincts to report)?
As we know from 2016, we may not know who will control the House or the Senate until the early hours of Wednesday morning. Because the House is determined by district level results, it is the least likely of the three to go that late. By midnight, there will be two hours of results from every state but Alaska, California, Hawaii, Idaho, Oregon, Washington. Thus, by this point in time, the question is what is still outstanding and what is the current net swing at all three levels. If one party has picked up/held most of the “competitive” seats that they were favored to win and the “outstanding” seats are the ones that were supposed to have been wins by the other party, that party is likely to be happy when the evening is done. So are we waiting for the Tennessee and Texas Senate seats or have the Republicans held onto them. Have the Democrats lost any state (and are states like Missouri, Montana, and North Dakota still outstanding)? Is the House at a net over twenty for the Democrats? Have the Democrats netted more than five Governor’s races? Have the Republicans gained any Governor’s mansions that the Democrats have held? By this time, it is unlikely that everything will be up in the air. If the Democrats have not yet wrapped up the House, they have probably failed to pick up seats in the Senate and may have lost a Senate seat or two. If the Republicans have not yet wrapped up the Senate, they have probably already effectively lost the House. (Technically, there are enough House seats on the West Coast, that neither party has yet “won” 218 seats, but the Republicans really lack any pick-up opportunities outside Minnesota so if the net at midnight is over 25, the Democrats will win the House.)
At this point, in any election, the candidates have pretty much done what they can do to swing the election. The campaign has finished filming all of their ads and have booked air time over the next 48 hours. They have done what they can to register voters and have them vote early (in the states that allow early voting). They have volunteers ready for get out the vote effort on Tuesday. At this point, it is up to us, the voters, to make the difference. If you haven’t already voted, vote on Tuesday, and get a couple of like-minded friends to vote too. We have worked too hard over the past ten years to protect people with pre-existing conditions, to improve the rights of the LGBQT community, and to restore the economy after the disaster of the Bush year to give Trump a blank check for the next two years to destroy the economy with mindless trade wars and to pander to the vile racists who want to divide America. We also need to assure that in 2021, Democrats will control enough state governments that the Republicans will not be able to stack the playing field for the next decade in the way that they have done since 2011. The time to prevent America from going the way of many previous self-centered superpowers is now.
