At this time last week, eight of the eighteen states that had used caucuses or party-run primaries in 2016 had released their delegate selection plans for 2020.  This week three of the remaining ten released their plans and they are a very mixed bag.

This week, we start out west in Alaska.  In 2016, Alaska used a traditional caucus process with the caucuses occurring at the legislative district level.  When it came to allocating delegates to the national convention, Alaska used the raw vote totals from the legislative district caucuses to allocate the “district-level” delegates, but used the votes of the state convention delegates to allocate the pledged party leader and at-large delegates.

For 2020, Alaska is switching to a party-run primary that will allow early voting (either electronic or by mail-in absentee ballot).  Additionally, the party will run voting centers in key locations that will be open for at least four hours on the primary/caucus date (although there is conflicting language in the draft concerning the times that these centers will be open).  All of the delegates to the national convention will be allocated based on the results of the party-run primary.  (Like many “primary” states, Alaska will continue to use the local caucuses to choose delegates to the state convention which will elect the actual national convention delegates.)

We next move to Utah.  In 2016, the Utah delegate selection process began with neighborhood caucuses. Utah used the raw vote totals from the neighborhood caucuses to allocate all of its national convention delegates.

For 2020, Utah is moving to a state-run primary, currently scheduled for Super Tuesday.  All delegates will be allocated based on the results of the primary.

Maine is the most complex of the draft plans for several reasons.  First, the plan expressly notes the pending legislation to establish a state-run primary with the intent to use that primary if that legislation is enacted.   Second, given that the legislation includes the possibility of ranked choice voting, the plan invites comments on how the plan should be revised to incorporate ranked choice voting.  Third, Maine is proposing two alternative rules for allocating delegates to the national convention — one that uses the traditional 15% threshold for winning delegates and one that does not use any threshold.  It is unclear if the national party will approve a plan that does not use the typical 15% threshold.

That third issue is not as significant as it would be in a larger state.  Candidates still need to get enough votes to win delegates.  Even with the rounding rules (fractional delegates awarded to the candidates with the greatest remainders), it will be difficult for many candidates to win delegates without getting 15% of the vote.  It is possible that one or two candidates who finish below 15% might win a delegate at the district-level.  However, at the state level, it is likely that it will take more than 15% to win a delegate.

Assuming that Maine stays with a caucus system.  Voters will be able to vote absentee by mail.  Those mail-in votes will only count if the voter does not attend the actual municipal caucus.  In Maine, national convention delegates will be allocated based on the number of state convention delegates won at the municipal caucus.  As with earlier states that are using “state convention delegates” to calculate national convention delegates, the number of delegates to the state convention will have an impact on the threshold for winning a delegate from that municipal caucus and could — particularly for candidates in the middle of the field — have a significant effect on whether those candidates win any national convention delegates.

If a candidate withdraws between the municipal caucus and the state convention, the state convention delegates won by that candidate are treated as uncommitted delegates for the purposes of allocating the national convention delegates.  As Maine is early enough in the process, there is a chance that some of Maine’s pledged delegates will be “uncommitted.”

We should receive information from the remaining states over this next week.  While, in theory, the four territories should also release their plans in the next seven days, they may be late.