Here’s what I’m watching for this evening:

• It’s an “all white” debate. Due to the draw, everyone up on the stage this evening is Caucasian. I’m interested to hear what they have to say about Baltimore, racism, and how we move forward against a 2020 campaign that 45 will make all about race and the urban/rural divide. Especially interested in whether Buttigieg can get any traction with African-Americans as his polling numbers with that cohort are currently at zero.

• Sanders v Warren. In 2016, the economic policies between Sanders and Clinton couldn’t have been more stark. Now, Sanders shares the far left lane with Warren, and she has fleshed out some of his proposals and presented plans in tandem with some of his others. How will they differentiate themselves, especially as regards health care? Will there be a socialist v capitalist moment? My overall belief is that they both have the money and ground game to make it through to Super Tuesday easily. But only one of them makes it to Milwaukee.

• Steve Bullock. He’s a really interesting guy, and most people don’t know anything about him. He’s a Democratic governor of an ostensibly Republican state, and that state is committed to getting money out of politics. Everyone who serves in the legislature has a full time job, and raises no more than $180 per donor. They all believe in retail politics.
  Bullock is currently suing the IRS to reverse the rule that says non-profits don’t have to release donor information, and he shepherded legislation involving donor transparency through the Montana legislature after the Citizens United ruling.
  That said, there’s not a lot to love in his positions on the environment (he doesn’t think getting rid of fossil fuels in the next 20 years is realistic), he is wishy-washy on guns (he’s “evolving”) and while Medicaid was expanded in Montana, and he likes the ACA, he doesn’t have any concrete proposals on how to go forward. Still, he’ll be interesting to listen to as no one else has done as much on campaign financing as he. (We’re talking successful action here, not plans.)

• CNN. MSNBC did terribly with their debate. And yet, Chuck Todd, who spoke more than any candidate, is still employed. Sorry, I digress. CNN is going to try to limit interruptions and said they’d take time away from constant interrupting candidates. Why they can’t just cut a mike is a mystery to me, but what do I know, I’m a blonde girl. The seemingly unending commentary they put forth during the draw doesn’t inspire confidence, but hey,  it’s highly unlikely that they could do worse than CNN. I miss Gwen Ifill on days like this.

• November mistakes. In the last debate, the candidates said things that can hurt them in the General. Most notably decriminalizing border crossing and health care for undocumented immigrants. That’s not a personal problem for me, but for the general electorate, and especially Hispanics, those are problems. Most people want to hear candidates talk about things that matter to THEM, and the undocumented don’t vote.

• Climate Change. It didn’t come up last time – we’ll see if it does this time.  I believe there is a private climate debate scheduled for the fall to which all real candidates will be invited, and that the DNC is considering a climate debate….but we’ll see.

• And the biggie…Sanders plus Warren vs everybody else. As Warren and Sanders endeavor to differentiate themselves from each other, the entire rest of the field will be putting forth policies and positions that are far more moderate. I’m less interested in what they all say (yeah, you know it, I’m a nerd and can tell you who stands where on what) but rather how that moves the needle with the electorate. The number to watch two weeks out is whether the combined polling total of Sanders and Warren rises or falls relative to the rest of the field.
  There’s no doubt in my mind that Sanders, Warren, Biden, Harris and Buttigieg have the money and ground game to move forward. It’s likely that 1 -3 other candidates will get enough traction to move past September (that would be from the group of Booker, Klobuchar, Castro and O’Rourke, the rest are done barring a parting of the seas, sorry to all of you who keep writing me about Yang).
  But, no more than four make it much past Super Tuesday.  Remember, after the Super Tuesday votes are counted, 45% of the delegates will have been selected, and horse trading from those with just a delegate or five will begin.

Enjoy the debate tonight folks! I’ll be back tomorrow morning with info on tomorrow night’s debate, and a recap on both nights following that.