We can’t really talk about expectations for tonight without understanding what happened last night. In the interest of full disclosure, I spent last evening with people who, while they like certain candidates, are truly laser focused on “who can beat Trump”. Thus, this was not a watch party in support of any candidate.

The consensus of our group was that Sanders won over Warren (yes, this is counter to conventional wisdom), Buttigieg nailed most of his positions, and Bullock did well. We were split on the best line of the evening, but in hindsight it probably was Sanders saying “Because Trump’s a pathological liar, and I tell the truth.” (Feel free to disagree.) And whether we or the talking heads are correct will play out in dollars over the next days.

The biggest question about last night, going in, was the debate between the far left and the moderates. The moderates needed to land body blows and 90% of the time, they were unable to do so. Bullock did well on campaign financing, and that may be enough to garner a spike in internet searches. Whether it will it get him to 2% with 130,000 donors in the next few weeks is left to be seen. Delaney, Ryan, Klobuchar, Hickenlooper, and Williamson are done. Note to John: PLEASE drop out now and win over Cory Gardener. We need the Senate. Likewise, O’Rourke, who has qualified for September, should PLEASE drop now and for the good of the country, win over John Cornyn.

So that brings us to tonight, which will be a contest of Joe vs the Volcano. CNN did much better than MSNBC, and now we have an inkling of how they compose their questions, and on which topics they’ll be focusing. Their questions ran towards individuals, and asking other candidates to respond to that candidate. (Except Williamson, who isn’t actually a candidate, but she was 100% correct when she said that what happened in Flint would never happen in Grosse Point, and yes kids, that was the high point of her nascent and done campaign.) Therefore, we can expect them to pull out Joe’s greatest hits, and ask others to beat on him.

The candidates, however, might be smarter than that. Tonight we have Booker and Harris who have presented fresh ideas that are to the left of moderate, and to the right of the hard left. They are also the only two black candidates, and race IS going to be on the discussion list tonight, and we shall see if they can leverage their lived experience in a way none of the other candidates can. If Booker repeats the “coming to Newark” story he told at the SCDC, it may well be a game changer for the black vote. (Currently, Joe holds a polling lead of 53% of black voters, who are expected to be 25% of the primary electorate.)

So here are my questions for tonight: can Gillibrand or Gabbard leave the cellar? I doubt it, but I expect Gillibrand will make a comment on why she’s discriminated against for her gender. Gabbard will make one or two excellent points on foreign policy and the military, but neither seems able to compete in the big leagues on anything else. Note to Bennett – you’re a nice guy. Stay in the Senate, this isn’t your year.

Can Castro make any inroads? He did really well in the last debate, and people like him, but his numbers reflect that most voters don’t see him as electable.

Can Inslee talk about something other than climate? Yup, his plan is what we should adopt, but that’s not enough with this field.

Can DeBlasio avoid yelling? He will be the only far left candidate on the stage tonight, and given how CNN is doing things, that might garner him more time than he’d otherwise be accorded. The real question: as the most hated man in New York, can he win a few friends?

I never know what to say about Yang. Have we learned NOTHING about keeping businessmen out of the White House? And while I try to be agnostic in my presentation, I swear, his guaranteed income paired with a VAT tax has as much chance of becoming law as I have of finding a diet wherein I can lose 20 pounds in 24 hours. And as an aside kids, when you watch all the policy debates, always remember that it’s not enough for a presidential candidate to have a good idea, it has to be able to pass successfully through the sausage factory.

And that brings us back to Biden, Harris and Booker, the only of tonight’s candidates who have cleared the bar for September. Biden’s biggest challenge is to look alive, engaged, and forward. While he’s only 14 months younger than Sanders, he seems much older. He lost a lot of institutional and financial support after unforced errors at the last debate (and in the weeks leading up to it) and he needs to be the Joe pugilist of yore. Look for Booker to thread the needle: he needs to avoid coming off as the “angry black man” while promoting his guns and baby bonds programs in a way that embraces the humility he often shows on the campaign trail AND not falling into the trap of being “too nice”. For Harris, who is beloved by her fans (and who is polling ahead in California, which owns 12% of the delegate haul), she needs to be able to explain her healthcare plan in simple terms, since it actually is different from the other plans, and it’s interesting, but incredibly complex. Hard to do in a minute, but she preps well.

Overall, the opening and closing statements are a chance for the candidates to reset expectations and nail down support, and if last night is any indication, tonight’s competitors will be on point and succinct. They’ve all been introduced to public last month, so we’ll see if they say something new, or repeat their greatest hits. According to Ann Selzer, 80% of Iowa caucus goers will be watching. Other pollsters have that number at 70% in both NH and SC. So it matters.

A final note on Joe Sestak. He entered the race really late, and he did it for a good reason. He had always wanted to run, but refused to commit until his daughter finished her treatment for brain cancer. Many of us here know Joe, and he’s a great guy. Let’s all please take a moment to hold up some hope that Alexandra stays in remission – her first bout was at age 4.